After some really good due diligence, decided to buy some of this and I averaged in all week long, even if it's just on a technical basis. Should move up slowly now as it chews through that overhead.
I hear their toaster oven is the best on the market. We're all gonna be rich. :)
I saw many bios get chopped down and come back just like NVIV. If you live by the index, you die with it too. So there is nothing wrong with NVIV except ................................. I bought some more at $12.30. So there is a good chance for some more downside.
I never get tops or bottoms right.
Thank you. Hype trip can apply to anything. If you look at the chart, TPIV looks EXACTLY like a mini (happened faster) ADXS without the Peterson event. I figure ADXS finds support at the 12-14 level compared to .50 cents.
And you wonder WHY people NOT involved in ADXS call ADXS a hype? Point of reference my friend.
The purpose of the post was ONLY to show how difficult it is for the market to value these issues as demonstrated by market cap.
Surprising that you are a so ....patient, yet sold AVXL that CLEARLY has less competition in Alzheimers than ADXS has in cancer. I sold all my AVXL except for what I own now on house money.
I know you clicked because you wanted something, and try to keep an open mind before you start pointing out that ADXS uses soothing green paint on their bathroom walls and they use tan.
Value .... is very hard to determine and obviously ADXS is where it is, after going where it went. And is the market evaluating it .... efficiently? Isn't everyone tired of the ADRO - ADXS comparisons?
I found another company with excellent success on patients at the completion of phase 1's. Great Immuno pipeline using much more modern technology. The only collaboration at this point (they do have the ability to sub-license) is with the Mayo Clinic using, and having licensed the Mayo's technology. Not as much cash or as far along in trials, but no where near the burn rate either. ADXS market cap today - 431 million. It's market cap - 19 million.
Now folks that complain about valuation of ADXS to ADRO can wonder which of these two stocks are priced incorrectly, but it does provide some perspective on why the market is so confused about these types of companies pricing levels and why ADRO and ADXS keep coming down.
You guys have the science covered. But when I look at the end of June, there was a huge volume spike. Was NVIV added to a Russell index? I ask because MMs usually short that volume out to what ever funds need. Then they recover that stock when they can. Big stocks, no problem. Small ones like NVIV can take them awhile to come out .... profitably. Why? Because they have to hold it down (sell what they were accumulating into strength) and buy when they can usually around options expirations.
How do they do this is to telegraph it through the options market by increasing the total interest and selling calls to make those worthless. You can see the large open interest and know it will be below that. When I look at the options through December, it appears that on the third Friday of every month, NVIV is going to close within ( + / - ) 3/8ths of $15. Hard to get a stock to run under those circumstances.
Now they may accumulate sooner than that, but it is a slow process when you need to sell what you bought to hold things in check. So, my general rule is NOT to buy a small float / low volume trader in the year it is added because of this. So .... NVIV may be dead money for awhile.
Ya, but the two are intertwined for now. Look at the charts. To the day, when AVXL took off, NVIV dumped. Natural really. As I am sure many have good profits in NVIV. Problem is that the longer this .... correction continues, the more people will want to defend those profits and selling will increase.
AVXL had positive news, and when that happened many bios began to fall. Holders of the other companies sold to buy AVXL. TPIV gapped down and is now basing here. It hit NVIV as well as I am familiar with both. And I sold some AVXL yesterday and bought into both.
So it is possible that when AVXL finally tops out, that more cash will be available for TPIV. Question is .... when?
For this stock to rise, AVXL has to top out. BUT .... when AVXL does top out, there will be a lot more cash to put back into NVIV. AVXL is single handedly draining liquidity from all bios in this low market liquidity period.
At least the drain of selling NVIV to buy AVXL should have slowed. Strange that when the news came out and AVXL began to run, at that same time NVIV began to fall. Traitors. :)
Force? A government agency? Those guys can come up with any number of excuses.
What if they said that although ADXS meets requirements, so do humteen other companies that would want this as well and simply S L O W the entire approval process down. Even Baskin Robbins is working on a cancer vaccine.
What has me worried, is that with the stock sooooooooo weak, what happens " IF " the FDA says .... NO.
I see many here throwing names about and I have made money in AVXL twice myself. So I will say thank you. But while I have been moving about, I keep my eye on the market, as it will end speculation every time.
Both the DOW and the S&P are on track to do death crosses within the next two weeks that will break long term uptrends. When one goes, they will all follow. And so goes the vast bulk of stocks. Europe will be shut down now as every year at this time. And back to school will require money in many of these important markets. Selling into poor liquidity will be painful. So if you ever wonder why August to October is the worst time of the year in markets, now you know.
TPIV ran, peaked, and has pulled back to $1, then .75 cents, then .50 cents, ( coincidence? ) and each time it gets close to breaking the down trend line, down goes another leg. ADXS is not so obvious, but none of these have faced a bad market this year. Now, they double topped AVXL on less volume than the first peak and please look at an advance / decline line. If that stock doesn't BLAST though $1 on HUGE volume, watch out. I suspect Monday and Tuesday to be consolidation till the trend line gets broken, then HUGE volume the other way as "believers" with HUGE blocks learn this leg is done.
Be conservative, better deals are looming.
I told this months ago going off the chart when everyone was all giddy yelling to da MOON. I tried to bring in some reality and now it is happening. If news happens that changes things. If this volume stays like it is, then $12 may not hold.
The long term 1k I have left was at $7.90. I too will buy strength this time of year.
Every company makes a low and a high for the year. ADXS, the company, is a better company being farther along in what it has to do than it was when it was $30. And I still expect $14 with $12 a possibility at some point. But my short term money won't go back into ADXS or any other bio without a breakthrough of some type until November regardless of price.
This stock is in a war between finance companies and institutions using market makers for endless shares. The stock ran up in one week last December once they got "the skinny" and between the war and shorts, it has been a slow bleed augmented by big rallies at news releases with shorts looking for non existent shares.
This company is for sale (BOD is almost all finance people) (CEO already built / sold one other) and they are trying to rustle shares away from those institutions that have it. That's why volume is so high for such a small float. Retail shorts / longs get caught in the cross fire. That is until that down trend line is broken, scientific news is released, or the sale takes place.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Starting to act toppy. And since the stock is WAY over bought on a short and medium term basis, I am cutting and running until their is a pull back because the next wave of volume will be shorts.