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Penn Virginia Corporation Message Board

me2yousee 189 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 25, 2012
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  • me2yousee me2yousee Jun 7, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Sometimes a fresh perspective can be of use. As a reasonably new holder, I'll give this a go so you can understand my logic.

    EPS isn't there to justify too much yet. Why trust 2015 estimates and beyond when we don't know the price of oil will be longer term. AXAS kinda has credibility issues because it makes one ask, what the heck have these guys been doing for the last 35 years they have been in business to be only at 5k barrels a day? Did they make shoes for the first 20 years or something? Are they drilling with a kitchen spoon for the bit?

    PV10 seems to be WAY undervalued at 425 mil. (latest presentation) So if you trust it is accurate, if we calculate it out, AXAS is @ a $4 - $4.50 stock. Lets look at book. $1.25? Close? So nothing their to justify a higher price.

    Well, .................. what do they have in plays? They are ALL OVER the place (too many really) but NOT in the heart of any single sexy play. And gas is a dirty word. AXAS probably owns the mineral rights under the White House for all I know, but what good is that?. Any 3k per day wells yet? So what chance really is there that PV10 is too conservative?

    Compared to the names of the issues above that have real market driving values, except for MHR that is in a sexy play, AXAS has been more of a sector play than an individual stock play so far. Not belittling you or your analysis, this is what I asked myself before I bought. Why am I here? Low debt should mean growing earnings that eventually does come through for a higher valuation if they don't go back into the shoe business. But these guys got serious with their own money and want to cash out now, so they will come through. That .... and continued sector strength. Without sector rotation into the E&P group, AXAS would still be a $3.00 stock. It ran and continues with the group.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    3,000 july calls...

    by huskys4u2 Jun 6, 2014 12:38 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 6, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    The largest open interest is where they will close out the options for that month so they expire worthless. So by buying the $9s, you now have the MM's assistance in helping your short work.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Just the opposite of here, looks like a blood bath today.

    Wonder at what price it becomes a good deal? :)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This $5.25 level is pretty solid resistance or has been cause we won't know how much that last pull back helped clear the way until we try. Looks like somebody wants to gap us up through it. ($5.30)

    Even if we do gap, it's gonna be tough on a Friday after a big up / volume day yesterday unless the market helps out some here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Don't worry, just the shorts goin up in smoke. Double bottom is in.

    Hope we don't start that gap up stuff again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This is coming to another critical technical juncture. It has a very well defined up trend line. It's trading nicely right up until that trial at $11 and we are getting VERY close to running out of RSI for this up cycle. We NEED the market to continue here till we break through because all we need is to print another double top.

    I know you understand what would come next. And the first one started at #13, so ................................. be aware.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Jubilant, cc slide re: FDA issues

    by maphere May 30, 2014 2:26 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 31, 2014 12:29 AM Flag

    Stay on it Map.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Perfect Timing / Stars Aligned?

    by me2yousee May 29, 2014 7:28 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 29, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Oh yea, it's up, up, and away for now. And in truth, the larger float could have the benefit of liquidity for liquidating size if that's a concern. Still, I am not going to get piggish just now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Perfect Timing / Stars Aligned?

    by me2yousee May 29, 2014 7:28 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 29, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    I agree, but the point of my post was to consider that if the market got sick this summer, the downside could be a little lower with the increased supply now. I was looking at the gap at $7 for downside support.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Things can't possibly go any better for a company that needs to raise funds if they do it when Funds that track the Russell indexes are needing to get shares. Should be an easy sale for JPM.

    On the other hand, the upward price bias that I was expecting is satiated by supply. Just bear this in mind, because unless a buyout is in the cards, news events will be few and far between. As a result, BCRX can drop off the radar between now and the end of September period especially with increased supply.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GS

    by mrmism May 28, 2014 5:41 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 29, 2014 7:18 AM Flag

    People that don't understand the industry always look at debt and ring their hands. Or go short.

    If they just did their research they would find that there isn't a single major that wasn't built on the debt model at one or several points in their history.

    Of all industries, this one truly takes money, to make money.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee May 28, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    I sold some yesterday that I want back ........ at lower levels of coarse, so where is the buy point after this financing? I assume they will close the gap, but I doubt that it gets to $8.50. Will the drop destroy the MACD cycle? I guess we wait for a price where the volume slows for a hint. :)

    I gotta say, you guys a sure taking the long term view on this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    prospectus...

    by huskys4u2 May 28, 2014 3:38 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 28, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Yea, you saw it happening yesterday morning especially.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are We Victims of Cha Ching?

    by me2yousee May 27, 2014 10:02 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 27, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    If shares are authorized, then they can be sold at any time from my understanding as long as a document of the sale goes back to the SEC to adjust the shares outstanding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are We Victims of Cha Ching?

    by me2yousee May 27, 2014 10:02 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 27, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    I understand how the game is played. And they always try to fill the gap before volume drops off and real accumulation takes place, but yea. Seems that any time the chart can turn positive, it is broken down. This shows a lack of real support like everybody is waiting for the shoe to drop.

    The ATM always worked for BCRX by them sending a total of shares to a vendor who sold them for "an average price" minus commission. Didn't seem to be too much strategy to the process. Basically they just blew them out and found an average to pay BCRX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee May 27, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    $NBI opened with a nice break away and just broke it's downtrend line. So that will add some support starting tomorrow as it is recalculated if BCRX can hold any of this gain today.

    Actually, this stock is a safer buy today even with the price advance now that we know it is going to work.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Is BCRX using the ATM today? Negative volume just WAY to high at this point for news like this. Coarse it has to be done eventually I guess.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee May 27, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    Why we don't short small float stocks with high institutional ownership.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee May 27, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    The shorts are scrambling NOW!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee May 27, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    Remember, people aren't looking for this news believing them that they needed 6 more weeks. Tells me that at least BCRX was excited.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

PVA
13.02-1.64(-11.15%)3:57 PMEDT

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