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Penn Virginia Corporation Message Board

me2yousee 166 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 25, 2015 4:14 PM Member since: Feb 25, 2012
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  • Reply to

    hammer time...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 22, 2015 5:31 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 25, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    You quoted posts out of the FDA section that I posted so you obviously read it. If it is .... unlikely to be used in hospitals because of the timeline for admissions and the diarrhea. And if it is unlikely to be used from a Doctors office because of the warning to monitor, it is now understandable to me why it wasn't big in Japan either. Not rocket science. BCRX told us last spring what their intentions were with Rapivab. If insurance coverage isn't obtained, neither hospitals or doctors are going to administer it. SO to suggest even lightly that it might stirs credibility issues.

    But I won't be made out to be a liar either. I never said that doctors were responsible for an FDA approved drug. That was A L L you. A gov't employee isn't treating patients, can't be sued, doesn't have to pay insurance, or deal with review boards etc. The doctor isn't going to prescribe something for flu only to have them get killed or kill someone else later. (that oath again) If you read the title of the thread, my post covered ALL inhibitors and only referenced the FDA when you wanted specifics. (played the BS card because he can't read) You really need to study words like I suspect, or maybe as to them being definitive statements. At least I tried to guess what the CT order was for.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CDC ppt of antiviral recommendations

    by maphere Jan 23, 2015 4:32 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 24, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Howard, wise ol'Chinese saying: Just because car company makes bad car, doesn't mean all cars are bad. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CDC ppt of antiviral recommendations

    by maphere Jan 23, 2015 4:32 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 24, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    The point I was trying to make with Husk was that people think as they do. Indians killed many a horse shoe salesman when they had facts to back themselves up. Today it's not arrows but something worse .... lawyers. And while gov't employees are free to advise what they want, doctors can#$%$ why Japan uses inhibitors like they were candy and we don't.

    And remember, this isn't just the FDA's opinion, but BCRX essentially told us that it wouldn't sell either, so they weren't going to push it. It just boggles the mind how one agency isn't talking or one isn't listening to the other. Just read the entire FDA news release which one wonders why they passed it at all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The market voices opinions every day with buys and sells. Stocks get over bought and over sold. ADXS broke an enormous uptrend line and would have corrected violently regardless simply because it was so over bought when it did. And it isn't normal to get so far ahead of the 50 day average either as it is at $6.13. So the question is, without any articles, where would the stock be today?

    The move started roughly around $2.75 and went to 13.5 for easy math that means a $10.75 move. "Normal" Fibonacci correction levels would have been for support at three levels. The first level of $9.96 (33%) was breached so the next support point was down to 8.38. (50%) That also was breached, so it went down to $6.73 before it found support for a 63% correction. This is still considered normal after such a fast advance. And it's being bought now as I did myself. Yesterday it went up to test the 8.38 level which is now resistance and failed for a rapid recovery. But the stock IS finding support and being bought, so prepare your mind if volume tails off.

    If the author had any real credibility backed by truth, he would have produced the full 100% correction down to $2.75 and he hasn't so far. (but the negative cycle of the MACD still continues and if $6.73 is breached, it will get ugly again, so use stops)

    Prepare yourself that $6.73 is still possible on a down day till the MACD turns and where your stop should be set now. If it breaks THAT level, it will get ugly again to at least the 50 day average and no one can tell if it finds support there.

    You DO use stops especially after a BIG move don't you?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CDC ppt of antiviral recommendations

    by maphere Jan 23, 2015 4:32 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 24, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    Sorry, I forgot this before I get jumped also from the same release:

    " It is intended for patients 18 years and older who have acute uncomplicated influenza and have shown symptoms of flu for no more than two days."

    Just in case somebody wonders where 1 above came from.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CDC ppt of antiviral recommendations

    by maphere Jan 23, 2015 4:32 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 24, 2015 8:19 AM Flag

    Map, you do an excellent job of finding this stuff. But it all conflicts VERY badly with the FDA statement for approval. Because I lost credibility, I will copy this from the FDA release:

    "Common side effects seen in Rapivab-treated participants include diarrhea. Rare but serious side effects include serious skin or hypersensitivity reactions such as Stevens-Johnson syndrome and erythema multiforme. Patients with influenza may be at an increased risk of hallucinations, delirium and abnormal behavior early in their illness and should be monitored for abnormal behavior. These events have been reported with neuraminidase inhibitor drugs, but it is not clear that the drug caused the abnormal behavior."

    KEY WORD up there was " COMMON " except for the one sentence that should be in a separate paragraph.

    Now Husk got all bent out of shape on another thread because I had a discussion with somebody that was anti inhibitors in general. In further discussions, he pointed out that 1. Most hospital patients don't become hospital patients until day 4 of the onset of symptoms and they have minimal effect after 48 hours anyway. 2. Severe patients generally suffer from severe dehydration which means the diarrhea side effect will make them WORSE than help them when they can control fever by much cheaper means.

    So all we need is somebody going to a doctors office and getting treated and driving home and having an accident that kills somebody. Which may be why Perami failed the first approval attempt and why no company has stepped forward to distribute it now. Why else would BCRX have such low expectations for it themselves?

    I wanted this discussion in the other thread but everybody here is only interested in the rah, rah stuff. So who's credibility does that impugn?

    I think that all of this is why this product doesn't

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    hammer time...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 22, 2015 5:31 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 24, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    Not to rain on your party, but if you look at the Sept decline, you will see at least 3 hammers in that down swing as pretty as the last one.

    Hammers can occur, not because of specifics with the stock, but because of the market when you are in an index. That's what this last one was which was driven by the index itself. Check the IBB and notice that IT wasn't cloudy, mostly because the MACD was still positive. And that was a low volume day for BCRX so the index had easy control. And if you want to understand why BCRX generally has so L O N G of decline cycles, notice that BCRX is off the MACD cycle with the IBB and as it should begin to recover, the IBB turns down and holds it back quite often.

    The only reliable indicator for this stock is (has been for awhile now, both directions) trend lines and MACD.

    Get my credibility back?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jan 22, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    your loosing your credibility.

    Really? While life saving may still be under that oath, standard of care has long been invaded by the hospital you are in and the ability to pay for the services to be rendered. And a hospital that is open will save more people than if it has been closed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jan 22, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    I forgot to write that that came from a hospital VP. Not me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The vast majority of general community medical hospitals in this country derive the bulk of their revenue by filling the most beds with the Flu season. This money keeps these organizations afloat for the rest of the year.

    Needless to say, anything reducing bed counts or current length of stay is not favorably received.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    sales of rapivab outside the US...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 21, 2015 1:36 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 22, 2015 6:39 AM Flag

    It could be that BCRX gave the rights outside of the US to Shiongi since BCRX didn't meet the terms of their last agreement I 'll call the September debacle.

    We never heard any details, but it is highly unlikely that Shiongi simply let the matter drop. And this could explain the closed documents till 2024 under the CT Order that was recently filed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ill stop shorting

    by jbrady151 Jan 22, 2015 2:20 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 22, 2015 6:06 AM Flag

    I'd go bold and step in and short for all your worth. :)

  • Reply to

    technicals...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 21, 2015 1:44 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    If you wanna feel less bad, look at what the ADXS shareholders are dealing with for breaking an up trend line.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    technicals...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 21, 2015 1:44 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Now come on. How long you been in this. Down cycles NEVER end in less than 4 weeks and it has only went negative for about 1 1/2 weeks. The MACD ALWAYS goes down and flattens out with the old head fake and then it breaks down one more time. After I was just saying how good this was trading.

    Must be a new hedgie in town. 3 more weeks my friend

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Data Husky

    by mdaddy1234 Jan 21, 2015 12:41 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Sorry, ADXS. Seems that the market has a thing for Virals right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Data Husky

    by mdaddy1234 Jan 21, 2015 12:41 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Look what ADAX did and that was sorta the same horse.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Data Husky

    by mdaddy1234 Jan 21, 2015 12:41 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    CEO was on TV touting some of the stuff they are working on and it does sound good.

    Now I expect market caps to stretch, because that's what has to happen to have a January effect. But most people go by price and don't look at the market cap. And they probably should.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 6:15 AM Flag

    I hope you took advantage and got what you wanted.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Data Husky

    by mdaddy1234 Jan 21, 2015 12:41 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 21, 2015 6:00 AM Flag

    Great info. And you can see it now on the chart and daily activity for the stock.

    The last negative MACD cycle, with the RSI at basically the same level, we were constantly scraping along at the $10 level praying for it to hold. The wave selling of that period is also gone and that is showing up in lower volume activity which is exactly what you want to see during a decline.

    Doesn't mean that BCRX will break up out of the trading range on this cycle, but it sure is minimizing downside risk. (for now)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    string getting pulled at both ends...

    by huskys4u2 Jan 17, 2015 5:43 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jan 19, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Being on the outside of late allows for a fresh perspective of what Stoney actually has done with / for / to BCRX. When he laid out the plan last spring that Rapivab and 4430 were nothing but fund drivers and that HAE was everything, he based the company on those results. That explains current price action and why flu and ebola hype fall on deaf ears.

    What do the shorts see? Well, the gamble in all or nothing is that taking so much of a drug per day (2 pills, 3 times a day) (even though it works) that there will be an adverse reaction. When it comes to small molecules, (after that Baxter debacle a couple of years ago) just one reaction will get a clinical hold from the FDA. On a longer term study, the odds favor a problem even if it isn't from 4161. If the first gen fails, there will probably still have to be dilution to get the seconds to bat. That's the gamble and some hedge funds are taking that bet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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