You should run a search. Here is a blurb I found.
"Mr. Jonathan Koch serves as Independent Director of Renewable Energy Group Inc. Mr. Koch has served as a Managing Director of US Renewables Group an investment firm focused on the renewable energy industry since July 2004."
Wasn't Koch's money. He was using inside info for the fund. Once he no longer HAD that info, he started selling. He knows the annual game. He was finally above the IPO price, so he wanted out quick. (probably a condition by his fund of leaving)
If you read it all, he has held a lot of positions in his 44 years. So it looks to me as though it was time to move on more than anything else with another feather in his cap.
I think that one key metric that is ignored, especially after 2012, is that REGI actively manages RINs for stable pricing. What remains unknown is did they see this coming?
As a premier producer, I would say that they keep a closer eye on the EPA / government than waiting to read the final outcome in the local paper. So with increased output and lower costs coming over this year, they can be ahead of the disaster projections for earnings that are being imagined. The only thing I worry about is that they are TOO conservative (play dumb) (a trait they do well) on the CC that allows for even more doubt / fear. One thing though, I wouldn't take any questions from Steiffel Nick.
There are many metrics that are used in the oil business and without visibility to the entire picture, can mean little. Quality of plays, locations within fields, etc. There is one common trait across all businesses that must be there.
I like MPO because they get (for the most part) their production from mostly developed, consolidated plays. As a result they have one of the highest production rates per employee of anything I have found. And because of the location of their plays, their people are NOT sleeping in their cars, eating $10 hotdogs which provides for better long term moral. Better conditions and moral, with less burn out and turn over and experience to draw from if they need more. They know the climate, have been in the biz for decades, they are .... home.
If you have good people that develop a chemistry, they will find a way. So for this reason, I say to MPO, cut costs, sell LA.
It is a good crew huh? The real benefit of a board like this is that it forces you to ask yourself continuously, "why are you invested"? If after multiple threads, nothing changes your outlook, then you stand a chance of having made a good decision.
Chart study kinda tells me that this quarters report is expected to be ho hum. Volume died with the failure at $6.50. With the MACD set to go negative early this coming week, we will be lucky to hold $5.40 which at this point will be yet another buy opportunity.
I'm sure you guys are tired of those. :)
January is looking good though.
I find that trying to determine what will be reported as earnings for an E&P to be difficult. I have read all the opinions that I could get my hands on and they seem to value MPO above the current price. So why do some companies do better than others with less?
I think that many others don't get earning right either. As a result, they trust "the beat". Companies do well or are punished based upon the analysts assigned to follow them. MPO, as the new kid on the block, probably didn't get the high end talent. Such is life. What I think MPO is going to need to do is some hand holding / steering of these guys into predictions that can be met / exceeded. I find 12 month targets from $5 - $13. Not a great confidence builder for investors that tend to be conservative by nature.
Want to see what a proactive management can achieve? This is a shocker. A dry, NG ( 0 oil) company we have around here. If you want a shock, check out and compare RRC and you will see what I mean.
I was going to close out another position and get in this morning just for earnings and was soooooooooo close to getting caught. I don't short. I did buy in late when volume dried up with an average cost of 10.87 but blew it out avc 11.54.
When this finds a bottom Monday, or even if it opens higher, I want in. Unless it would break lower. BIG positive was institutions stopped selling and actually started buying at the EOD. I don't trust the market to hold on too much here as breath is weakening.
This is a mover. Good to hear from you again. Have a nice weekend.
I have warned the CFO time and time again about these types of raids. If they just had a stock buy back plan approved and in place, they wouldn't have to buy a share, just the threat of it would prevent fraudulent activity. As soon as any buying would occur, selling would dry up with the assumption it was the company doing the buying.
Maybe now they will listen.
Wanna know what really blows? They waited for the quiet period to begin and then did this on a Friday. While the argument sounds entirely logical, it was known that every year this will be this way until they either go farther out or end the program. This was probably to let a client fund accumulate on the cheap or to pinch the funds that have been bleeding out day after day.
The stock is already below book, so how do you throw figures out there like 8.5 to 10 without predicting a huge loss? That would have gotten them in trouble.
Sorry to longs. Well, now you know why this got so far below book value last winter. No profits without subsidies. So what good is book value?
Don't worry, $6 is a rock this year. But don't buy till you see a high volume reversal. May not happen till next week. Institutions are bleeding this out, but since they are lagging the market this year, the performance panic will probably cause a dump from hell at some point. Maybe later today. Worst day of the week for this to happen. Then you will have tax loss selling from hell too.
Well when buyers come in and see a monster block seller sitting on top of this, they buy something else. This seller is HUGE. At least they sold professionally instead of just dumping.
I think that the market worry is that the two large insiders will eventually want to sell their stock. It's that overhead that causes the fear. Because there ISN'T a large enough float, volume lags other companies of this size.
This is the bulk of the problem. Volume cures everything. Problem is generating it. We already own.
Charting should never be just about one thing. Look at your chart to the right. You also had a gap down which can mean different things in different situations but in this case indicating panic and therefore over done or exhaustion selling.
Now you get the negative. When it broke the two day downtrend line, volume should have surged enough that the stock spiked up to close the gap at the end of the day. It did not. Why?
You REALLY need to put up a bunch of these oils on a screen so you can watch them move like buffalo on the plain. When they are left alone they mill around doing this or that. But when they decide to move, they all do exactly the same direction as a herd. The point is, the failure to close the gap looks like a problem with MPO. The whole group got week about 3:15 into the close.
Well, that aught to cover the doom and gloom issues. After a bond offering we don't need, we get a 10 mil share offering that ain't happnin, so I figured I would cover the natural disaster end before another short post.
I bought a couple of shares today. I figure, (am betting on) the stock strengthening late tomorrow into Friday. If wrong, downside should be limited to about $7.10 and then strength next week..
I'd guess a pop starts late tomorrow into Friday. PVA announces next Wednesday and that will set the tone or anticipation for everybody else. I picked up PVA, HK, heavy and a little more MPO this morning.
Look at this another way.
If two weeks ago while struggling in the low $5s, somebody told you that you would be at $5.60 today, you would have probably poo pood the guy saying that was too much too fast for MPO.
Until we get rid of the old holders and MPO justifies breaking away from trading with the .... "poverty pack", this will be volatile.
We had a poor Friday and after a strong start, Monday took a dump as well. Not just MPO, but all of them. The sector IS cooling and that will put technicals back into consideration and they are all overbought. The only E&P I own now is MPO. So I hope down is more like sideways.