Relax, it's about to change when the MACD signals a buy here in the near future.
When the S-3 came out that the 6.6 million shares were going to be sold by Citrix Energy last month, short interest exploded and the dive began. My guess is that the shares are sold and we are just waiting for that realization to set in and to give the pros the time to cover here.
Maybe the wait for approval will have a benefit. Hospitals are looking to see a surge of ER activity for the flu this year (thanks to Ebola) from people that would have normally stayed home. Insurance companies are worried that admissions will be up because hospitals hurt by Obama care will try to make some money back.
Sounds like a .... more positive back drop for RAPIVAB and maybe a larger company to peddle the stuff.
Never mind. I found it. Sales of juju beads have sky rocketed. On the back is the handy dandy guide to Witch Doctoring. :)
Ahhhhh, we were told that all three doctors in Liberia and 40 health care workers had died and that there was NO hospital space for all the sick when numbers were about 1000. That's why our troops were sent over to build this hospital network.
So where is this mystery care coming from?
Boy oh boy, this board has slipped. You intelligent guys normally pick up on minute details and are missing a BIG point here.
Prior to August death rate was over 98%, considering that things are, or should be, MUCH WORSE than it was now that so many doctors and health care professionals DIED, the death rate is down by 40% from what it was.
Doesn't this make ANYBODY curious? :)
Yep, hit 12.50 and the buy stops will trigger. But they are going to try and defend this level to close out the 12s "IMO". We are probably eating some of yesterdays purchases.
What happens Monday will be of importance. I'm like mdaddy now, too close to news events to play, unless they want to pay.
A positive I see is the smaller and smaller amount of shares that are moving the stock. Just like it was irrational last month's option expiration for major selling during that decline, this months is draining it nicely.
I say, don't be sore short some more. You are the rocket fuel that will launch this higher.
Seems that all the agencies from BARDA to the CDC are going to meet and decide if the budget for NIH needs to be augmented to "expedite" drug development for Ebola.
This turned out to be a perfect example from which to explain my understanding of the Options portion of the trading Algo. Folks like to want to look at open interest to guage the effect of options. They say options for BCRX should have minimal effect comparred to what I am saying. But it is not BCRX's open options but a cumulative sum game across the market. How do you know? Watch the Tuesday activity before expiration.
Take last month. The market tape was flat to up and the $NBI rose every day into expiration. On the Tuesday before expiration, there was a large and rapid sell order early that broke us down and away from the expected close range of $12. This was when the options portion of the trading algo was activated and essentially told those in the know what was going on. And we declined every day into expiration regardless of the market. I told you that this was most like a mistake. Except for the spike up two weeks ago, we basically floundered for a month. Then the error was .... corrected this month.
Yesterday, the Tuesday before expiration, we got the volume surge to the upside and wondered why buying would be so unprofessional when it didn't have to be. This showed the players what the algo was going to do this month and we are moving up in a heavy down market and $NBI this month.
Question is, what happens next month?
Yea, TA isn't what it used to be as these are supposed to be created by people (emotion). Just look at the games played by the hedgies. The funds saw the summer run in Bios and basically shorted everything without an FDA approved product or earnings and the higher the price, the heavier the activity. This is regardless of "potential". MMs had to float them stock when they wanted to short or risk losing their business.
So we got the results here on a chart that in no way reflects on the actual activity of what this chart would have looked like had the shorting have not accurred. And now it is going the other way as they will be closing out the positions. So we got to play what would have been.
My estimation is that we would have been boringly range bound between $11.50 and $13.50 forming a nice base that would have been a nice catalyst for a launch this fall. Now I figure that the range got lowered now and is more like $10 to $12.50 (without news) so it will be nice to see where they close it out Friday. My guess is the $12s as all they need is another dime and they are there which is where it should have been last month too. A nice boring consolidation instead of the erratic actual chart drawn up.
On the flip side, would you want to have surgery at this hospital if the nurses DON'T understand BASIC infection control?
Second health care worker in Dallas gets Ebola. Wanna know why? Because the patient was first treated in a general setting before being placed in isolation EVEN AFTER they knew he had Ebola. There was NO Infection Control Team from the CDC to establish " A " protocol. This is according to nurses that are speaking out.
So the nation is REALLY prepared alright. This hospital administration needs to be looked at for criminal charges subjecting the staff to a fatal illness and the CDC chief needs to be fired for incompetence and lying to cover it up..
This buy was interesting because it didn't need to be made in this fashion. Even if it was just institutional short covering.
So what did they hear that convinced them today was the day?
Well, it ain't good if you are a fan of BIG government.
1. The blame game is rampant and the spin machine is spinning so fast, that even the talking points aren't coordinated or are wrong. The people that are in charge and need to be guiding their agencies, are doing media tours explaining why it isn't being done or has failed. So nobody is guiding the ship.
2. Seems the CDC doesn't have the nation ready. So maybe only a few hospitals should do the treating and this includes doctors as in 3. below.
3. The first patient in the US received a medication that was the furthest along in the approval process having been tested SAFE in the human body against other stuff and tested against Ebola in a test tube. And it was administered shortly before death when we all know the earlier the better. Translation: Doctors afraid of lawsuits refuse to assume the risk. Another CDC failure. Where are the EINDs?
4. Confidence of everyone, both inside the medical system and out, is shaken now and the situation is escalating for the second round so it will likely get even worse.
5. Still no travel ban when all of this would have been unnecessary. If you don't want to find out the lion is hungry, don't enter the cage.
6. All of the Ebola attention is diverting attention from the fact that 10 kids have died from EV68 and dozens more are crippled with cases now reported in 46 states. And it seems to be getting worse. Yes, another CDC boondoggle.
7. All the stuff we were counting on for flu backup is expired.
Anything I missed?
Individual charts don't matter when a move is sector driven. Oil futures to close out at $90 next week.
Just that so many times I hear people say they wish somebody would ring a bell when it is time to buy. Ding, ding.
Now that BCRX is testing monkeys, just wait until they see what else happens. Just might change their minds about giving it away. :)