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Penn Virginia Corporation Message Board

me2yousee 187 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Feb 25, 2012
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  • If I am correct, the $RUT should break its downtrend today if the markets follow the futures. Oil broke out in a rather impressive fashion.
    So with the buying going the right way, (at least not fighting us for a change) maybe we can make up some lost ground.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This is a nice little company, but forget the company, you are in the stock. This stock was a virtual double in @ 2 months for a lot of people and institutions. It went too far, too fast as how far it was above even it's 50 day. So MACD rolled and it is retracing.

    Fibonacci numbers for this move / correction are 33% = $4.91. If that broke, 50% = 4.45 and it went to $4.47 which was also the 50 day. If that breaks, 63% is .... $4.01.

    Good chance that the market will accept 50% because of the sector strength if the indexes will let it recover some. But you need to see the wild, blow out selling stop before confidence can return. You are vulnerable till this occurs and Joe 6pak didn't find out last night till he got home from work, so that will come first thing this morning. :)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee Jun 12, 2014 9:01 PM Flag

    Issuance to expand the Eagleford drilling program. Expected issuance price is $5.14 which simply means the market.

    Good chance the market ate half of these already over the last few days.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    short int went up..how come

    by justjoe1955 Jun 11, 2014 8:28 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 11, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    When you issue bonds or preferred stock, the holder of those issuances shorts the common to protect their principal. That's why it's so high and you see so little change.

    If the stock begins to move up above the price it was shorted, then the position will be closed. A lot of the early debt was issued when the common was at much higher levels.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    rest up fellas...

    by huskys4u2 May 17, 2014 11:17 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 19, 2014 7:36 AM Flag

    A lot of this explains why the general public has failed to return to the market. This has the lower overall volume causing the carnivores to cannibalize themselves. And they don't like it much either.

    So why do we keep playing then?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Figured they would use $8. Ain't it strange how THAT works.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Coming out of a healthy correction?

    by cassidymchris Jun 9, 2014 11:36 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 9, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    You might have to wait for awhile. Seems like ALLOT of resistance from 5.25 on up to I assume stops at $5.80. But you won't know till we get there. One thing though, when ever it breaks, this aught to give us a good launch pad and the daily price moves aught to become larger.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Long set up.

    by asymiom Jun 6, 2014 10:57 AM
    me2yousee me2yousee Jun 9, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Don't forget the Russell rebalancing. AXAS has moved up in price this year and that should make them have to be included in more fund classes. Even the old funds should have to double positions to maintain the track from last year. That should keep an upward bias going.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I've seen and participated in discussions on why this is and those discussions generally center on the company, or well production, etc. Everyone making justifications on their positions that can get downright indignant at times. Could be the company has little do to with it.

    A small, investible E&P like this should jump on 1.5 million a day to the upside and have lower volume on down days. Especially after the last two corrections (heavy volume) shook this pretty hard. And when the E&Ps started recovering yesterday, AXAS got hit hard with selling making it look as though it was being dumped counter to the group. It was, but not because of the company, not because of the sector, but because of the ETFs that track the Russell 2000 which was down pretty strong. I'm sure that on certain days it is helped as well but this volatility ruins the credibility of the company as an investment.

    We will have to see if at the end of this month, if AXAS has moved up in market cap enough so that it can go into new ETFs that are more in sink with the movements of the E&P sector. And more stable as well.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Baker Bros Increased Ownership?

    by me2yousee May 1, 2014 1:45 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 1, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    That explains why a 3 month search turned up nothing. Thanks, yui.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Guys worried about funding made me consider this possibility. I figure that the manufacturer of the competing product would be the first to make the offer because what they have will be severely crippled if 4161 sees the light of day. I "think" that the company that owns that paid around 1 billion for that product, so there is real incentive for them to come in.

    My guess is that this initial conversation has taken place and in fact, this could be well along in the process pending the results of the trial. I get this impression from the stock and options programs and the attention these guys have paid to them not to let them expire. Along with the comparisons to the Ciny product with every opportunity and the stress on the second gen molecules being " effectively a cure " (that word cure scares the he!! out of drug companies) when everybody else in the industry would be trying to keep that quiet so they could milk the cow on 4161 first.

    Would this be the only offer though? Ciny is making good money with only 10% of the market. How much would an oral be worth? This might take time for other companies to ascertain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee by me2yousee May 27, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    $NBI opened with a nice break away and just broke it's downtrend line. So that will add some support starting tomorrow as it is recalculated if BCRX can hold any of this gain today.

    Actually, this stock is a safer buy today even with the price advance now that we know it is going to work.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee May 1, 2014 8:02 AM Flag

    Good points, but BOTA got the design for the trial from somebody. I must caution folks over things like logic and common sense with government entities. We know that the FDA just loves redundancy for CYA. And if the FDA can drive up costs, then they won't be bothered by products that "waste their time". We have seen, for almost a decade, the tussle (turf war) between BARDA and the FDA over Peramivir, to prove the point. The FDA wanted a phase III where the objective was to inject and revive the dead. In other words, go away, I'm in charge here.

    Unless some new spirit of cooperation has befallen all parties, BARDA should not risk #$%$ in the FDA's coffee, (power play) otherwise the money, no matter how intelligently spent, is wasted anyway.

    Picture a pretty woman walking around a boxing ring holding up a sign, ROUND 3,567, 912. Here comes the bell, D I N G !

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Whether you believe or despise, BCRX attracts more people that claim to have no stake in the race one way or another. Just learn how to interpret what is going on.

    Shorts are usually experienced and advanced traders. They know what an MACD turn does for a stock. So when they keep on bashing during an uptrend, they are being paid to help accumulate. Or so they believe.

    The proof is that they don't know the stock or they would understand how little THIS stock can be maneuvered from this board anymore. With the index, just nobody left to sell, especially into an uptrend.

    Be nice to see what this stock could do with a strong up market day. But I would like to see that next Monday when people don't have a weekend in front of them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Funding in 2014

    by capcod3 May 14, 2014 5:33 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 14, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    If HAE works, there will be either a partner step forward or BCRX will disappear as a stock symbol. If it doesn't work, will you still be here to care?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    naz - DOWN btk - DOWN bcrx - UP!

    by huskys4u2 May 13, 2014 2:32 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 13, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Jack be nimble, Jack, be quick, Jack jump on this candlestick!

  • me2yousee me2yousee Apr 29, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    Well, beats saying that you failed to get him incarcerated or institutionalized and killed your own son which is what she has to live with now.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Pull up a chart of AXAS or HK or any number of other companies and they all look alike. Why? Cause they ran as a group. That "was" sector strength. Not company strength, but sector. They are all overbought and in need of a correcting cycle which is why you have the shorts here now. They aren't only here, but everywhere the charts look as they do. Has nothing to do with AXAS .... yet.

    If a company reports well now, the sell cycle will be minimized and that stock will advance within the sector for the next leg up. If they miss, some holders will sell. No panic, but all you need to do is stop the buy volume to get a retracement. Stocks make highs and lows for a year no matter how good or bad "the company" is. Which is why it's a "market". You get the rainy days even though you feel it should be sunny all the time. Just be ready to buy more when it is time to turn up, probably around Memorial day.

  • Reply to

    the "ace" IMO- is 4430...

    by huskys4u2 May 8, 2014 12:00 PM
    me2yousee me2yousee May 9, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    You are so right Jack. But you are also correct right up until you are wrong.

    You are applying rationality to a stock in an irrational market correction where everything receives the same treatment. While " right " may struggle to find a bottom and go on for awhile with the market, wrong can happen in an instant. Can you simply buy higher? Sure, if you don't have the money tied up in something else, that can be worse than riding this out.

    And I see three possibilities that make this " worth " the hold which no other stock at these price levels offers. So this is my risk play.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • me2yousee me2yousee Jun 7, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Sometimes a fresh perspective can be of use. As a reasonably new holder, I'll give this a go so you can understand my logic.

    EPS isn't there to justify too much yet. Why trust 2015 estimates and beyond when we don't know the price of oil will be longer term. AXAS kinda has credibility issues because it makes one ask, what the heck have these guys been doing for the last 35 years they have been in business to be only at 5k barrels a day? Did they make shoes for the first 20 years or something? Are they drilling with a kitchen spoon for the bit?

    PV10 seems to be WAY undervalued at 425 mil. (latest presentation) So if you trust it is accurate, if we calculate it out, AXAS is @ a $4 - $4.50 stock. Lets look at book. $1.25? Close? So nothing their to justify a higher price.

    Well, .................. what do they have in plays? They are ALL OVER the place (too many really) but NOT in the heart of any single sexy play. And gas is a dirty word. AXAS probably owns the mineral rights under the White House for all I know, but what good is that?. Any 3k per day wells yet? So what chance really is there that PV10 is too conservative?

    Compared to the names of the issues above that have real market driving values, except for MHR that is in a sexy play, AXAS has been more of a sector play than an individual stock play so far. Not belittling you or your analysis, this is what I asked myself before I bought. Why am I here? Low debt should mean growing earnings that eventually does come through for a higher valuation if they don't go back into the shoe business. But these guys got serious with their own money and want to cash out now, so they will come through. That .... and continued sector strength. Without sector rotation into the E&P group, AXAS would still be a $3.00 stock. It ran and continues with the group.

    Sentiment: Buy

PVA
14.92-0.26(-1.71%)Jul 28 4:08 PMEDT

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