i was intrigued by the buyout theory, so I don'care about the short term. The lower cost hep c treatment will be a hit in this environment. In fact, if the news is good, I will be a buyer.
Sorry for your loss. A lot of good and patient people here. I had a GTC at $4 from last year that I was lucky I caught.
With the heavy institutional interest by key players that have losses too now, I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of activism. Not only is BCRX undervalued, but you don't want the next gen products being questioned, "Do THEY reduce the frequency of attacks?" Idiotic end point.
You guys are merciless, but it is possible that some of your judgement is inaccurate.
You have to understand working with / for the government. SNGX uses the government for survival funding working on their projects. So companies that do this, learn how best to ..... get along and at what pace to work. Then they wait. It becomes a culture. If you push, you get punished by having the wait extended if your project isn't one of high priority with media attention.
It appears as dysfunction, and could be, but it is possible that it isn't. I have seen this and in fact been in the system. It is frustrating, but it is what it is. And it's the game they play.
I spoke to some old contacts today about 4430 ( my interest) and got some really discouraging information. They love the product, but something appears to have happened to slow the process. Since this goes through several different agencies, I know from experience that the answer one guy provides may NOT be the actual issue. And that the only understandable fact is that there has been a delay. After reading a few posts here, it sounds as though this stock drop never should have happened, and that HAE isn't dead.
Are the BB still an investor? Institutional volume looked restrained overall yesterday, even if the collapse wasn't. Opinions?
Take a look at a company BCRX. This company has an anti viral product called BCRX4430. This product "CURES" .... Ebola, SARS, Yellow Fever, Deng, and a bunch of other nasty things. Even the current one causing birth defects that the name eludes me. It is being developed under a government program. BCRX pushed, as a public company with shareholder interest at heart would, and with ALL the political pressure for the product, and has been stonewalled.
And I don't think SNGX has products with this much public scrutiny. The point is, you push, you're punished.
Two 13 G/A series by Wellington and FMR filed yesterday and today. 13G is the passive form of a 13D, but merely has to be refiled to change intent. These guys would have sold to get under the requirement (and avoid negative publicity) instead of filing, so that is a plus to me.
So I bought some again and will average in if the price collapses. Last time I bought down here, I bought too much that became 80% of my portfolio and drove me nuts. So I won't be approaching that again. I'm satisfied that 4430 alone is worth more than currently market cap.
Evidently, the 3, plus 5% holders, concur.
Take a look at XBIO for half price sale of SNGX. Several big names in this and OPKO just bought 6% today. Still has problems, but will be a different set of problems and management.
Bakers own close to 20% and they filed 4s when they added having filed their "13D" already. So I believe that you file the 13 series only once when you get to 5% or when you want to change status. If correct, then the FMR and Wellington 13s had to be buys.
Minus any selling 4s to come from these guys; the Bakers own @ 21%, Wellington and FMR are @ 10% each, and Blackrock brings up the rear at 6% and change. Very close to 51% should it be needed.
When I was here before, I seem to remember that the FDA wanted them to try a lower dose. And when it failed, it MAY BE the reason the trial was designed and worded (designed to fail) to allow the bigs above to .... gain control? This whole disaster week was a total of 18.135 million shares of which a lot were scooped up into new 13 series.
I don't think a buy out. It would be too hard to coordinate among 4 firms and that many people without word leaking out. What I am satisfied with is that "bad" news only produced 20 % volume in the stock and those "in the know" held and acquired more. Could be that there was an offer that was rejected once before that won't happen again. Or that some house cleaning is imminent. Or there is good news on the horizon. It's gotta be close because no institution is going to want to show a $2 stock on their EOQ report the end of March.
You need to go back and re-read my posts here. Don't believe I said anything about the up coming CC. I'm still trying to get my feet under me here. And my comments on 4430 were from a guy at USAMRIID where 4430 was tested. I don't know anyone at the company.
I sold and will buy back in if results ARE positive because there has been ZERO upward creep. More money will be made after a positive announcement than before taking the short term bounce anyway. So it's not worth the downside risk in this market.
This is sort of a PIA (it's complicated) and indicates a desire of commitment above what is a normal investment. The purpose of a 13 series appears to be to allow an institution a month to ease in / out without having to report form 4s and alert the world they want in / out. (IF they have filed a 13 series and continue to use Form 4s, then they obviously want somebody to see what's happening alla the BBs.) This is important to understand if you are concerned about buying / selling during this month's .... buying opportunity. :)
According to Scottrade, BCRX has 73.34 million outstanding. The 5% trigger is then 3.667 million. If an institution buys above that threshold, they must file a 13 series of some sort. That filing must occur within 10 trading days of the next month that the purchase was made. So anyone buying over that in this downturn that began the 8th, won't be required to file until the 10th trading day of March.
Anyone having filed a 13 series already, that changes ownership either way, greater than 1%, must file an amended 13 series under those same time constraints.
I can NOT find a 13 series by RA Capital, so apparently, they never breached the 5% level .... during December anyway. Well see in March.
Congratulations. Do over stay your welcome if your short term. If this doesn't clear 10 in a meaningful way, it will probably pull back. Otherwise, I like it longer term.
The point of my post was that there is no real way to know for sure by SEC documents until then. So all we are left with is supply and demand. If there is more buying, it will go up. If it stays flat to down, then maybe some of those big holders might be selling. Just won't know for sure until next month.
True. But this was HEAVY institutionally owned before the drop. Meaning that both buying and any selling should be professionally conducted as opposed to retail market orders flying in out of nowhere that are easily seen. And most of that aught to be done each day by 10 o'clock or from the EOD. Most of the old timers here are pretty savvy to identify the difference since they follow BCRX in great detail.
Logically, this should begin to blast up and there should be little resistance because of no individuals. And there is no reason for the big holders to maintain their short positions they used to protect their positions over the last couple of years. If it doesn't, ............. then somebody is selling institutionally. That 18 million of 73 mil outstanding had to be mostly individuals to this point. (IMO)
Yesterday's strategy was to run it up for a large enough percentage gain that retail shorting came in and then they let it sell back pretty much the rest of the day. And that strategy generated volume. Not so much today.
This can all change in a minute, but looks very bullish to me right now. $2.43 tomorrow if the market complies. But I suspect the strategy will be to run it up and then let it sell back as selling should come in at that level. May take next week to break $2.43. Break that level and BCRX is a long term hold again.
Really? TRP just filed a 13 series meaning that they own more than 5% In fact, a bunch of 13 series this week.
It also shows that the MMS and the Pro shorts that have ruled are now giving way. The normalization of daily volume for a stock with the amount of outstanding that it has, will begin to act rationally compared to what it has.
Coarse breaking the downtrend will also have that effect.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Maybe you need to step back and look at the big picture. Deals and partnerships are all down across the board and will probably be that way all year till the election is over. The only desperate activity in the entire drug field is for merging with an overseas company.
With an uncertain future, companies with cash are going to hunker down and hold what they have.