Oh, come on now. What's the current PE on the TASE, about 12? Even I have owned stock in an Israeli company that was bought out at a PE of 16 (Shamir Optical, SHMR), and SHMR had manufacturing facilities located n Israel and were growing much slower than PERI.
I think PERI has such a low PE mostly because they have had a hard time convincing investors that there would be long-term demand for their products, but that seems to be changing.
ABB contracted to pay a 57% premium for PWER. Do you think PWER could get triple damages for breach of contract?
I can't think of another major US search provider, so I assume it is someone international. It isn't like BIDU is the only international search engine out there, for instance the leader in Russia is some local firm with a name I can't remember. But in his prepared remarks Mandlebaum also said the fourth provider would complete their search diversification. And it is a lot harder for me to imagine "complete" if China is not addressed.
Seems like a move into China with Baidu would do wonders for PERI's valuation
I tend to agree with jp. The last two Q1 earnings were released May 11 2011 & May 9 2012, so May 29 2013 is clearly a delay. I think/hope they are trying to finalize a deal during the FUSION 2013 conference they have scheduled for May 19-22, so they can trumpet it in the investor conference and the earnings report. Wish this was more think than hope.
Agree that if TISA had a mobile deal already they would not be keeping it quiet just because of the MITK lawsuit. I think their 'no market presence' defense is just one defense of the many the lawyers can think of, and would only be useful to limit damages for the time period before their first sale. And a sale to either final customer or a VAR would inevitably come out in the trial, so why keep it quiet now.
In light of the 1.8% premium BMC Software got when agreeing to be acquired yesterday, boy did they negotiate well!
Right now QCOR and PERI are the two best GARP-type stocks I can find. I've owned PERI a few years, and own much more of it than QCOR because I consider their business model more durable than QCOR (as things stand now, after Oct 2017, QCOR will have to rely on trade secrets to protect their lone 94% gross margin product, so how much of a PE can I give 4+ protected years of earnings).
PERI, GOOG hasn't ever really had any reason to WANT to cut them off, if anything just make them adjust their download terms, which would hardly shatter the business model. And with Bing now in the mix PERI has some leverage too. I am somewhat worried that Smilebox is losing momentum though, there was a time when PERI mgmt trumpeted premium subscribers (mostly Smilebox) as a way to diversify from search revenue, but now I have to dig through the 20F to see premium subscribers are exactly flat with 6 months ago and up only 2.7% year over year. Still, Smilebox is just one of PERI's platforms, and an 8 PE on forward earnings can still rise a lot even if growth slows.
Yes, I own QCOR too. What the website says is about equivalent to Mitt Romney claiming to have 5 home states - advertising.
They bought a company located in Redmond in 2011 after hiring an American CEO. But the real address is what they tell the SEC:
Perion Network Ltd.
(Exact Name of Registrant as specified in its charter)
(Translation of Registrant's name into English)
(Jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)
4 HaNechoshet Street
Tel Aviv, Israel 69710
(Address of principal executive offices)
Yacov Kaufman, CFO
Tel: +972-3-7696-109; Fax: +972-3-644-5502
4 HaNechoshet Street
Tel Aviv, Israel 69710
(Name, Telephone, E-mail and /or Facsimile Number and Address of Company Contact Person)
No agenda, not here to fight or to trumpet what a genius I am, just to laugh at someone who opened his mouth to brag about his credibility and inserted his foot instead.
Hah, I don't think either one of you newbies ever posted here before 2013. So if you don't recognize my posts it is because they are buried beneath all that cow manure you guys sling. If you want a free tip on what the Syrian situation could (not "will") mean to PERI in a week (what a time frame you guys have!), go look up how Israeli stocks like for instance MAIL did when Israel invaded Lebanon and called up the reserves in August 2006. Oh I forgot, you don't know what MAIL is.
If you want MORE than a modicum of credibility, you probably shouldn't tell people you've only been in the stock a few months and think the corporate headquarters are in Redmond Washington.
In the last five days, ITRN has hit $16.00 at least 10 times without reaching $16.01. Today on high volume, 100k+ shares. Who knows why someone is sitting on the ask like that, no options trade, but it sure is interesting.
Misses by $0.20/share but shooting higher on the good future news!
I am doubtful that seeking alpha is really a neutral party. My experience suggests they will do anything for money. I have been under monitoring there for over a year, with all my comments reviewed by monitors before being allowed up, because I repeatedly said one of their authors was a just trolling for clicks since he was posting 30+ articles a week (an article an hour!) linking to multiple popular tickers but providing no real information. Not only did my comments turn out to be acceptable to seekingalpha, but they booted me for saying so! (Yet, I see now that all articles and all comments by that "author", Cameron Kaine, have been deleted if you try to search their site, maybe too many complained, LOL)
But over a year later any comment I make is reviewed before being posted and rejected if I say anything critical of seekingalpha. It seems their criteria is not abusive behavior, but anything that might reduce their income. IMHO they want to wipe out any traces of opinions that they aren't worth $1000+/yr for their "premium" service. Personally, I think they will do anything for money, and that might have a bearing on why certain comments are deleted and certain articles are selected for limited distribution through their premium service.
Sales rep data is from me adding up the number of sales reps focused on each disease state, as discussed in the conference call for that quarter.
Thanks for the detailed response!
Note I reviewed the average revenues per rep, and see that for the last 3 quarters it has been above $3M per year per rep, which implies that your EBITDA/rep estimate is significantly underestimated, once reps reach full productivity.
Q2 2012: quarterly sales $112.452M by 135 reps
Q3 2012: quarterly sales $140.339M by 177 reps
Q4 2012: quarterly sales $160.532M by ~195 reps (my estimate, I haven't seen a specific number for rheumatology or total reps at end of quarter, just the # by the February conference call: "in the fourth quarter, we initiated expansion of our rheumatology sales force from 12 to 55 reps, and earlier this month we completed the expansion ")
Interesting perspective. Every time I've been invested in a company hiring more reps, it always takes some time for new reps to start producing, and usually longer than management expects. How long do you see before these new reps start producing their $1.5M in revenue? If $1.5M/rep is the average, any estimate of how much revenue an experienced rep (say 2+ years) brings in, thus helping bring up the average?
Lots of shares have been trading. If this is like every other stock I've owned which has been taken over, longs are selling their shares and arbitrageurs are buying. With 0.5% profit in say 6 months, this bet on a completed takeover is far more lucrative than a bond, especially considering they'll be using leverage. And every arb will vote for completion of the deal, not PWER staying independent.
So would a lawsuit stop the deal? I'd call lawsuits based on forward-looking statements in a conference call 18 months ago a pipe dream, except that would be too charitable.
The only way the ABB deal doesn't happen is if another bidder emerges. Sure ABB gets a $20M breakup fee if PWER takes another offer, but than is less than $0.13/share, an additional 2% to another offer. Any bidder who thinks PWER is worth far more than $6.35 won't balk at another $0.13. IMHO a $20M breakup fee is practically an INVITATION for other bidders to consider a deal. Sure Silverlake is committed to voting their stake for ABB, but every other owner who wants a deal would vote for a higher offer, and selection of the higher offer would only take a majority of shares. IMHO Silverlake's commitment is not a significant hindrance to a higher price.
So how likely is a higher offer? Over the years I've owned 14 stocks when they've been taken over, and only once was there a higher bid. Most of the 14 were smaller market caps and less strategic than PWER so that might make PWER more likely to attract another bid. Then again, the future for solar power is less certain than for the typical industry, and how many CEOs wants to risk his high-paying job by sticking out his neck in a gamble? I'd still say the odds of another bidder are only about 15%. Of course, that is enough to keep me in PWER until I see something else I'd rather do with my money.