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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

me_jade 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2015 10:43 AM Member since: Jan 13, 1998
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  • me_jade me_jade Jul 2, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    You just keep digging yourself deeper into the pile of manure. You are already so deep you will never be able to climb out. Soon enough the fact that you are dead wrong (and an idiot) will be obvious to all......and you'll disappear silently into the night......to only find another message board to spout your ignorance before being once again being proven wrong. And yes, eventually you'll be right once and a while.......after all a broken clock is right twice a day.

    You don't get it......GLOP fundamentals are building.......GLOP is a dividend growth play for the next several years. The dividend will be growing dramatically over the several years and the share price will follow soon enough. The fundamentals always eventually express themselves in the share price.

    I'm in the green on GLOP. All of my shares have been bought between $22 and $23. Sure my early shares were recently trading for $28+ and I could have sold for a quick ST profit. That doesn't concern me......and honestly I'm grateful for the opportunity to add shares.

    Is GLOP and buy and hold forever stock? NO! Is GLOP a buy and hold for the next 3-7 years? Emphatically Yes! The massive LNG import/export market is just beginning to ramp as the construction of massive import/export facilities around the globe are completed and commissioned.

    Guys like you always wonder why you can't beat the market averages. Guess what? Investment skills are required. A few hints.......contrarian investments in temporarily out of favor stocks bears fruit.....patience is required.....always buy fundamentally strong companies when on sale.

  • me_jade me_jade Jun 27, 2015 10:30 PM Flag

    Management said they are going to recommend to the board that the distribution be increased 7-10%. Are you a short? Or simply completely un-informed?

  • Reply to

    Steal of the decade

    by daapoopy Jun 8, 2015 2:21 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 19, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    bommsbawway said:

    "If the price of coal does not rise, they will cut the distribution - they said so."

    When and where? I have not seen this comment. In fact, at the recent NAPTP conference, the CEO SUGGESTED that ARLP expects to increase their coal production at the expense of Central App coal volume currently produced by others and that this would likely support distribution increases.

  • me_jade me_jade Jul 2, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    Forgive me for not understanding......but why is a rig count increase a positive thing. In my view, that only forestalls the necessary re-balance in the oil market and the return of oil prices to a fundamentally appropriate and profitable range.

    Unless crude prices rebound sharply in the next 3-6 months (I don't think it will happen), I think we are going to see another major falloff in rig count. Favorable hedges will begin to roll off and the cash flow of many smaller drillers will turn very negative and they will be forced to drop more rigs.

  • me_jade me_jade Jul 5, 2015 12:51 AM Flag

    With every post you make, I realize that the extent of your ignorance is even greater than I realized based upon your prior post.

    Why is GLOP going down? Plain and simple.....all things oil and gas are currently out of favor.....and further LNG exports/imports have not quite yet ramped up because the majority of new import/export terminals are still under construction. Starting late 2015 and continuing through at least year end 2018 there is massive amounts of LNG import/export capacity coming online and the overwhelming majority of all the capacity is fully contracted. Make no mistake the volume of LNG cargos is going to increase dramatically. Just this week, Cheniere announced FID and initiation of construction for LNG Train 5 at Sabine Pass (other four trains already in various stages of construction). Train 5 is nearly fully contracted. These terminals cost billions to build. If the fundamental were poor, do you think shippers would be committing to capacity and Cheniere would initiate on a 5th train? FID for Train 6 is not far behind and I bet it advances to construction as well. Time to buy the ship operators that will be massively profitable 1-3 years from now.

    So what were you doing a year ago? Buying GLOP July 2014?

    I'm a contrarian, most of my purchases are made when a market sector is on sale. I'll probably be just starting to sell some of my GLOP to harvest profits when you finally turn positive. Sorry, buying low and selling high works better for me.

    The GLOP fundamentals are sound. The debt is very manageable. Now, a little patience is now required. Investing is not simple but it is also not all that hard. You have to fight your emotions. You have to buy when things are still cloudy and uncertain. You have to sell when things are stellar (and couldn't get better).

  • Reply to

    Steal of the decade

    by daapoopy Jun 8, 2015 2:21 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 17, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    Things that seem obvious......are rarely as they seem. I am interested in ARLP but I currently have no position and I don't plan to buy until the stock trades flat or up for a period. There is currently too much downside momentum. Nearly everyday creates a better buying opportunity.

  • Reply to

    NEW LOW

    by racehorse9 Jun 16, 2015 11:43 AM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 16, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    Even if the proposed new regulation goes into effect, there is a 10 year grandfather period for existing MLPs

  • Reply to

    NEW LOW

    by racehorse9 Jun 16, 2015 11:43 AM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 19, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    Even though it has little to do with SXCP's business model, SXCP is associated with coal and that makes SXCP toxic to many investors. In addition, SXCP is also associated with US Steel production and in general the outlook for US steel producerproducer's is poor. The IRS ruling is simply one the 3rd piece of bad news and therefore the 3rd strike for many. Why would it recover? For those willing to take the risk, I think SXCP may pay a very good modestly increasing distribution for a lengthy period

  • me_jade me_jade Jul 3, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    I call you and idiot......and you go out of your way to prove it!

  • Reply to

    Whats wrong with KNOP?

    by rbgambler99 Jun 25, 2015 3:28 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jul 6, 2015 6:32 PM Flag

    What's wrong with KNOP?

    As best I can tell there is nothing specifically wrong with KNOP. Rather, KNOP is tarred by its association with all things oil & gas. The one fundamental challenge for KNOP going forward is ironically its stock price. With a stock yielding greater than 10%, issuing shares to finance drop downs is prohibitively expensive. At today's $2.04 annual distribution rate and $18.80 closing price, the yield is 10.85%. And think about it, if in future years KNOP is able to increase the distribution 5%/year, that cost of capital gets worse via compounding. The MLP-type model only works well when the stock market cooperates and prices the stock richly. Unfortunately if company cannot cost effectively issue equity to finance drop downs, there isn't much room for debt on its balance sheet for debt.

  • Reply to

    Tax consequences K1 or 1099

    by phoenix773 Jul 13, 2015 9:47 AM
    me_jade me_jade Jul 13, 2015 10:37 PM Flag

    Wrong answer. GLOP issues 1099s. Check the website or the slide packs. The May 2015 investor slide pack, slide 5 says......"1099 (no K-1s) from GasLog Ltd. or GasLog Partners LP"

  • Reply to

    Todays conference call

    by marie2148 Aug 6, 2015 2:27 PM
    me_jade me_jade Aug 10, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    NO!

  • Reply to

    Just don't understand this one!

    by ayscuew Jun 5, 2015 5:28 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 6, 2015 11:06 PM Flag

    I'm sitting on 600 shares of SXCP. Although I think the partnership is solid for at least the near term, I'm not sure I should be invested as essentially 100% of their current biz model is based upon thermal and met coal and logistics of same. Probably not a good risk......and that's way it's yielding 10+%. I need to ditch the yield hog disease and dump it.

  • Reply to

    Just don't understand this one!

    by ayscuew Jun 5, 2015 5:28 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 6, 2015 11:01 PM Flag

    jrad:

    You are placing near zero value on coal assets - correct? If so, I think that is the correct approach. I had not thought about looking to see where NRP's debt is trading. I commonly use that tactic for larger entities, and even companies that appear to be healthy. The debt market tells a lot. We've all seen cases where the risk/return ratio is much better on the debt and the common investors have no clue.

    Again, assuming you are placing a near zero value on the coal assets, that makes sense to me. I see many others claiming thermal coal will come back when Obama is out of office, personally I don't think so. There are claims and whole business models built around biomass replacing coal as a fuel source at coal fired plants (with minimum conversion cost). For example, I hear that wood chips (i.e. lumber waste, etc) can be burned at former coal fired power plants and reduce carbon emissions by approx. 80%. If true, that goes a significant step further toward eliminating thermal coal. That said, I think met coal will always have value, but perhaps a low value in the US for a substantial period due non-competitive US BOF manufacturers, further worsened by the the strengthening US$.

    Solid discussions here!

  • Reply to

    Just don't understand this one!

    by ayscuew Jun 5, 2015 5:28 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 7, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    jrad:

    Thanks for the reply. It seems you and I are fishing in many of the same waters. Since late 2014, I've been dramatically increasing my investments in MLPs.

    I'm 5-7 years from retirement and I'm currently getting severely abused with respect to taxation. I set out on a quest to reduce my investment tax bill between now and retirement and MLPs fit the bill given that I expect my marginal tax rate to drop significantly after retirement. As everyone knows, O&G related MLPs went on sale late last year.....and I'm confident in the prospects for the midstream and pipeline MLPs as I've been an investor for many years with a much smaller allocation.

    I have a heavy allocation to the pipeline & Midstream MLPs and have been recently been looking for continuation of increased allocation but with better diversification. This effort has lead me to OCIR, WLKP, SXCP, NRP (no buy yet), and EVA which I discovered last week while scanning all members of the NAPTP site for ideas.

    In evaluating NRP, I decided I needed to learn about the coal industry. By chance, I listened to the ARLP/AHGP May 22 presentation at the NAPTP (the slides are worth a look as well). While the ARLP CEO is not an elegant speaker, the information presented is excellent. Assuming the information presented is accurate, the outlook for many coal investments is far better than I believed. I had assumed that thermal coal assets is in far more trouble than met coal but apparently that is not the case.

    Have you by chance listened to the 28 minute presentation? If yes, I would be curious if you believe the information presented is correct. FWIW, it seems to me that ARLP or AHGP may be worthy of some investment dollars.

  • Reply to

    Just don't understand this one!

    by ayscuew Jun 5, 2015 5:28 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 8, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    jrad says.......

    "FWIW, my immediate target is $ 3.60 (10% yield) and I will probably buy some then. And the difference between today's price and $ 3.60 is pretty meaningless so maybe I'll buy a little quicker."

    Pretty accurate so far.......

  • Reply to

    Steal of the decade

    by daapoopy Jun 8, 2015 2:21 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 19, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    bommbsawway:

    Thanks for the reply. Your response makes sense. I've seen the many bankruptcies (as a bond holder) where there was an equity for debt swap but typically this has not completely wiped out the debt balances. Regardless, the balance sheet will be much cleaner in such a scenario.

    My issue with your comment is this.......based upon Yahoo! Finance's 'Key Statistics", ARLP currently has TTM EBITDA of $820 million with total debt of $862 million. Yahoo often has errors but I know the numbers to be dead on or very close to ARLP published numbers.

    Further, the distribution has been increased every quarter since August 2007 without skipping a quarter. ARLP states that their coverage ratio is 1.6 and therefore, ARLP has substantial retained cash each Q. It's hard to imagine anyone with a stronger balance sheet, even after emerging from bankruptcy.

    Despite the fact that coal mining is in a secular decline they may never end, the decline for ARLP is likely to be quite slow. With their balance sheet and a common stock yielding greater than 10%, it's hard to argue that ARLP should not borrow money and buy back stock. That said, I don't know what ARLP's borrow cost is but I'll but its far less than the stock is yielding.

  • Reply to

    Weird

    by jrad52 Jun 19, 2015 9:06 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 19, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    jrad:

    Thanks for the relevant information. A month ago or so, I had no interest whatsoever in coal even though I owned a small position in a coal related MLP, SXCP. I initially looked at NRP because I was interested in learning more about the company that owned 49% of OCI Wyoming. Now, because of the information posted on this message board, I'm watching ARLP and NRP daily. I did recently initate a small position in NRP, the very day it hits its 52 week low but far from the low at $3.91. I'm watching ARLP daily with interest but I'll probably stay away. These coal plays are extremely tempting but obviously contain risk. With ARLP, the balance sheet and distribution growth history are so strong that it is incredibly tempting but I'm doing my best to stay away.

    Speaking of SXCP, I recently stated on this message board that I should dump SXCP but I didn't. I have two small buys at $22ish and $19.90ish. Today the stock closed at $17.99 with a current yield close to 13%....and will be over 13% based on SXCP's earlier this week's reconfirmed distribution guidance. I'm curious, do you have a position or are you tempted?

  • me_jade me_jade Jun 18, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    Many growing distributions much, much faster

  • Reply to

    Steal of the decade

    by daapoopy Jun 8, 2015 2:21 PM
    me_jade me_jade Jun 19, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    One more comment........
    It is hard for me to imagine any of their competitors emerging from bankruptcy with less debt or any other financial metric better than ARLP

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