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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

mechjr 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2014 1:15 PM Member since: Sep 11, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Oil dropped a buck overnight - WTI

    by mechjr Jul 15, 2014 9:18 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jul 15, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Brent down over 2% today......

    OIL: The great dump of oil long positions continues, with West Texas
    Intermediate, currently at $99.15 per barrel, hitting a low of $99.10 earlier.
    The front contract is at a 2-month low and is fast approaching the May 1 low of
    $98.74, seen as the next larger level of support.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Despite the tension in the Mideast ...

    OIL: NYMEX August light sweet crude holds down $0.92 at $99.99 per barrel on the
    low side of a $99.91 to $101.06 range. The last time WTI dipped below the
    psychological $100 mark was May 12 (low at $99.93 that day). WTI also has broken
    below its 200-day moving average, currently at $99.92. A clear-cut close below
    the 200-day will target a return to the May 1 low of $98.74. Initial support
    comes in at $99.74, the May 9 low

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jul 11, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Yes - they initially said they would do it on 7/1 giving the impression that it was a one-and-done transaction. The story has now become more complicated. They are going to bundle and distribute quarterly. This could go on for quite some time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jul 11, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    Just to clarify ... this is the "most recent distribution", not "final distribution". There should still be 27.5M shares left in the disputed claims reserve. Not sure I fully understand the lingo but it looks like 432K shares were cancelled, which is essentially a small stock buyback. Yet another sign that management is reducing the number of outstanding shares wherever possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • American Airlines Group Sees 2Q PRASM Up 5.5%-6.5%
    DJ Realtime News–8:16 AM
    *American Airlines Expects to Take Delivery of 84 Mainline Aircraft During 2014
    DJ Realtime News–8:09 AM
    *American Airlines Sees Recording Special Non-Cash Tax Charge of About $330 Million in 2Q
    DJ Realtime News–8:08 AM
    *AAG Expects to Pay Average of Between $3.01 and $3.06/Gallon of Mainline Jet Fuel in 2Q
    DJ Realtime News–8:07 AM
    *American Airlines Has Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility of $1.0 Billion
    DJ Realtime News–8:06 AM
    *American Airlines Had About $10.3 Billion in Total Cash and Short-Term Investments as of June 30

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • (MT Newswires) -- Shares of large-cap airlines with international routes including Delta Air Lines, United Continental Holdings and American Airlines are down between 3%-4% Monday afternoon amid investor uncertainty that heightened security measures could cut flying demand.

    The Obama administration is stepping up security for some flights headed to the United States from Europe and the Middle East, reflecting heightened concern that terrorists are developing more sophisticated bombs designed to avoid airport screening, CNN reported late last week. The Transportation Security Administration confirmed the developments Monday but has not named specific airports.

    The effort does not involve changes to what travelers can take aboard flights. But passengers may see additional inspections of shoes and electronics, additional use of scanners designed to detect trace amounts of explosives, and another stage of screening at boarding gates, the CNN report said.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr by mechjr Jul 2, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    I attended part of the Merrill investor conference in May. DAL did say "5-7% in May and June". AAL's forecast was only in the 4% range and I did leave the conf. wondering why there was such a difference. Now I know.

    11:48 AM EDT, 07/02/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Airline stocks are falling by as much as 6% with United Continental taking the brunt of selling pressure on the "perfect storm" of disappointing unit revenue figures from Delta (DAL), television viewing of the World Cup, and travelers grounded for the July 4th holiday by Tropical Storm Arthur.

    Blaming the lack of travel to Latin America during the World Cup, Delta reported that unit revenue for June increased 4.5%, missing estimates for a 6%-7% gain, and down from a 7% gain in May. The stock is down nearly 5% after hitting a 5-week low of $38.03.

    Shares of other airline stocks are down in sympathy with DAL with UAL off more than 5% and below its 200-day moving average at $40.57, and American Airlines trading more than 3% lower. Analysts blame not only disappointing revenue from DAL, but Tropical Storm Arthur which will likely discourage travel during the key July 4th weekend.

    PS: The polar vortex was only a 10% hit so a single hurricane is hardly noteworthy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FEYE Earnings Beat Looks Likely

    by inmitersaw Jul 1, 2014 12:55 PM
    mechjr mechjr Jul 2, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Q2 Earning on 08/05/2014
    After Market - Unconfirmed
    Consensus Est. (.60)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr by mechjr Jun 30, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Search for Terry Maxon airline "biz blog".

    He is not often wrong but I hope he is on this one. A distribution is expected today and it makes sense to true up the Labor claims first. But there are 30+M shares reserved for the disputed claims. The true up for Labor accounts for less than 10%.of them. I don't know what plans mgmt has to dole the rest out but I can't believe they will just sit on over a $1B worth of stock for "a year or two or three ..." That is a very large overhang on the stock and is a caution flag for new investors.

    I believe we will hear a plan this month to payoff the claims, redeploy capital (i.e. share buyback), and distribute the shares held in reserve. It will take 12-18 months to execute the capital plan but current mgmt seems to have the will to rid themselves of the bankruptcy's unclaimed baggage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 30, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Thx for posting

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    final distribution

    by jonede1962 Jun 23, 2014 5:05 PM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 25, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    You probably have already received 744. Don't forget to include the cash you received in lieu of partial shares during each of the five distributions to date.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr by mechjr Jun 12, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    American Airlines November 47 call option implied volatility increased 10% to 40. There is currently a $1.50-2.00 premium.

    This means that some big bets are being place today on a break even stock price of $48.50 on Nov 22. Someone is taking full advantage of the dip.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lufthansa's Release

    by mechjr Jun 11, 2014 11:19 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 11, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    12:48 EDT - The highflying US airlines have lost some altitude today amid Lufthansa's (LHA.XE) warning, allowing Cowen to say "a buying opportunity finally presents itself...We believe fast money is selling into this news despite the demand environment remaining very strong for the US carriers." The investment bank thinks Lufthansa's news is company- specific, coming as US carriers have been logging strong spring results and as the company has had to deal with a pilots strike.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FRANKFURT-- Deutsche Lufthansa AG on Wednesday warned that profit would be as much as 33% lower than forecast this year, due to labor union strikes, adverse currency effects, and unexpectedly weak revenue growth in its passenger and cargo businesses.
    The warning prompted Lufthansa shares to drop 14%, clipping the stock's 34% rise since the start of the year. It also dragged the Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure index lower and hit shares of rivals International Consolidated Airlines Group SA and Air France-KLM SA. Investors worried that other European airlines would need to take similar measures to handle rising competition.
    Lufthansa said it now expects to report an operating profit of about EUR1 billion ($1.35 billion) for 2014, or roughly EUR1.3 billion after adjusting for one-off effects. It had previously forecast an operating profit of EUR1.3 billion to EUR1.5 billion, with adjusted operating profit at EUR1.7 billion to EUR1.9 billion. The airline also cut its profit figure for 2015.
    The European airlines sector has been battling high fuel bills and slack growth in the region along with intense competition on regional and intercontinental routes.
    European airlines' attempts to boost its seating capacity faster than European economic growth has faced challenges and its marketing efforts haven't yet succeeded in selling all the capacity, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Damian Brewer.
    The German flag carrier said intense competition from Persian Gulf carriers is hurting its U.S. and European business and leading to falling prices on these routes. That pressure prompted it to reduce capacities in winter.
    "Strong capacity growth by state-owned Gulf carriers was a major concern, " Ms. Menne said, adding that they are advancing ever further into the European market, in part through investments in European airlines.
    Qatar Airways recently joined the Oneworld alliance under sponsorship by International Consolidated Airlines Group, parent of British Airways, while Etihad Air

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 11, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    I can't offer a prediction to address your questions but I can point out that Lufthansa's problems are geographic. Frankfurt is no longer the defacto hub for flying to SE Asia or the Middle East. Dubai, Qater, are better situated and have cheaper fuel. Hubs can be a big financial drag if the planes are not full. Look what's happened to United-Continental in the US for example.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Supply crunch in Cushing did not happen. Transports got a nice pop out of it. Everything is going back to normal...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    May #'s

    by mechjr Jun 9, 2014 9:03 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 9, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Looks like rain on parade day - WTI up a $1.03

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr by mechjr Jun 9, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Traffic numbers look good .. but not great. traffic last month rose 2.1% from a year earlier. Capacity increased 2.4%. Load factor, the portion of seats filled, ticked lower to 84% from 84.3%. Domestic numbers look great - International is where they took a hit. Still better than LUV - traffic grew just 0.6% while capacity edged down 1.5%. Load factor rose to 83.7% from 81.9%.

    DAL #'s are a bit better and prove that AAL still has a lot of upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As of May 31, AAL is held in 63 ETF's and other invest-able (retail) funds. For comparison DAL, which is a member of the S&P 500, is held in 116. This means that we still have a long, long climb ahead.

    AAL will be on NASDAQ 100 in just a few months and possibly the S&P next Spring. That is a ton of support for a cash-rich stock that is the largest player in an increasingly profitable industry. What's not to like...

  • Check it out on the UAL boards if you are interested. I wouldn't think that the euphoria would have much affect the other majors but I guess we are enjoying the spillover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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