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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

mechjr 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 14, 2015 9:02 AM Member since: Sep 11, 2003
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  • Reply to

    What sort of day is this going to be? UP or DOWN?

    by gw78787 Jul 14, 2015 8:03 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jul 14, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    Oil is flat for the day so far (it was actually up .25% for a while despite the news on Iran).

    The news for the day is Jet Blue and Spirit, both released June results slightly below expectations. Spirit blamed the weather and Jet Blue said they at least had better results than the majors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In March, we announced we would shift to one reservation system later this year. And now, we're on track to transition all US Airways flights to American flights on October 17. At that time, we'll be one airline with one website and mobile app, and we'll have one set of travel policies and elite benefits.

    We're working hard to make sure this final milestone to becoming one airline for our customers goes smoothly. During the week of July 18, we'll begin transferring existing US Airways reservations for travel on or after October 17. As of July 18, all flights departing on or after October 17 will be American flights

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 8:56 AM ET 07/08/2015
    Southwest Airlines Co. said Wednesday that its capacity grew 6.7% in June from a year earlier, as it works to keep growth in the metric in check amid weak economic factors.

    Southwest said last month that it would take steps to pull down capacity, a move to curb rising seat numbers that have the potential to cut into profit. The company has said it intends to cap growth at 6%.

    Traffic, meanwhile, increased 6.9% in June.

    Load factor--or the percentage of seats filled--ticked up to 86.2% from 86.1%.

    For the second quarter, Southwest said its traffic was up 7.9%, while its capacity increased 7%.

    It expects its passenger revenue per available seat mile, a key performance metric for the sector, to decline by 4% to 5% compared to a year earlier.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From the letter:

    – Tell us who in your company sets the communications strategy to shareholders, investors or analysts and who does that communication.

    – Give us any documents “discussion (a) the need for, or the desirability of, capacity reductions or growth limitations by the company or any ot her airline; or (b) the undesirability of your company or any other airline increasing capacity.”

    – Give us any of your documents that talk about changes in your capacity or that of your competitors.

    – Give us any communications between you and outside parties about your capacity or that of your competitors and how capacity changes affect fares, revenues or profits.

    – Tell us the time and place of any conference, meeting or appointment, including telephone calls, you have involving industry analysts (we want your appointment books, day planners, calendars, etc., as well as any materials preparing for such contacts)

    – Tell us the time and place of any conference, meeting or appointment, including telephone calls, you have had involving other airlines in which capacity was discussed (we want your appointment books, day planners, calendars, etc., as well as any materials preparing for such contacts)

    – We want to know everybody who owns at least 2 percent of your company, including the time that person owned that much of your company.

    – Concerning those people who owned at least 2 percent, tell us about all your meetings, appointments or conference with those people in which industry capacity was discussed. We want to see any calendars, appointment books, day planners, etc., that were involved, as well as any documents prepared for those discussions and which talked about those discussions afterward.

    – We want to know how much capacity you flew, in available seat miles, every month since January 2010, and please include the seat miles flown by your regional partners as well.

    – Spell out your document retention policy including emails.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I feel obligated to point that the best trade of my long investment life was made the day the DOJ sued to block the AAL merger ...

    This should be viewed as an opportunity

  • mechjr by mechjr Jul 1, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A document obtained by The Associated Press shows the Justice Department is investigating whether airlines are colluding to grow at a slower pace as part of an effort to keep airfares high.

    The government has requested information from airlines as part of the antitrust investigation.

    Justice Department spokeswoman Emily Pierce confirmed Wednesday that the department was investigating potential "unlawful coordination" among some airlines. She declined to comment further, including about which airlines are being investigated

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 18, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Thanks for all the posts. Good stuff. JPM also cited benefits to UAL by pulling out of JFK. DAL and UAL will also benefit from the reduced competition,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 9, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    yup. today's market action quantifies the impact. This hurts LUV a lot more than the big 3.

    But the fear of course is contagion. The big 3 could start pimping each other.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LUV is trimming capacity forecast (again)

    by iahphx Jun 9, 2015 10:49 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 9, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    LUV, the godfather of the capacity crisis, is getting hammered today.

    I don't know how to quantify it but the largest increase in their forecast is at Love field. Two of the gates at Love are operated by DAL but are expected to go back to LUV at the end of July. DAL does not intend to give up the gates. Both DAL and LUV have sold seats on flights for August and beyond leaving the gates in question. So capacity for these two gates is being double counted for Q3 and Q4.

    #$%$ off AAL in Dallas is one thing but having both DAL and AAL pounding on you will definitely leave a mark. I'm optimistic that a truce at Love will occur sooner rather than later.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • MIAMI/PARIS (Reuters) - Global airlines raised their forecast for 2015 industry profits by more than 17 percent to $29.3 billion on Monday, almost doubling from last year and heralding a boom for carriers in North America that stand to reap half the worldwide total.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    they said "this tiime it is different"

    by airlineprofessor Jun 4, 2015 10:37 AM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 4, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    I also believe it is different. True, humans have not and will not change. And of course the appetite of the unionized workforce will never wane. But LUV can only get a finite number of flights out of Love field, Spirit can only grow as fast as it can acquire planes, Frontier is so small it's hard to believe they can even survive, and it almost impossible to add a gate at most of the US domestic airports. The factors cited as AAL's competition and expanded capacity barely make a dent in the reigning oligarch in this industry. It's not the humans that will throttle growth. It is the barrier to growth itself that make this time different.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • search for Jim Corridore CNBC

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 3, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    True that

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 3, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    Downgrade is not helpful but I agree with yertle. I believe it is just a delayed announcement related to the earlier drop. BoA was the last one to get on board with an 'outperform' post merger.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mechjr mechjr Jun 2, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    Thanks for the post. Likely another hoax. Several of the flights threatened were already at their destinations and offloaded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    shareholder meeting and investor conference

    by dca1186 May 28, 2015 2:27 PM
    mechjr mechjr Jun 1, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Many, plus UAL June 5 54.50's. More luck than skill on this one but I will take it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    shareholder meeting and investor conference

    by dca1186 May 28, 2015 2:27 PM
    mechjr mechjr May 28, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    I've pondered the same thoughts. Catalysts for June 4 include:
    1) Delta will report numbers. If revenues (PRASM) is better than -3.5%, it will be viewed as a relief and the sector will firm.
    2) The anniversary of the last dividend announcement is July but they could announce an increase early. They will almost surely match Delta's increase.
    3) An expansion of the buyback announced from January is something I would expect them to announce prior to the meeting.

    The potential is there. My conclusion was to buy as many June 12 43's as I could afford.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Parker's media campaign to announce a price war has carpet bombed the entire industry. He may as well said that he "loves the smell of napalm in the morning". My faith in him is dropping faster than his next paycheck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Airlines Expected to Announce Capital Returns This Week -- Market Talk
    — 11:20 AM ET 05/11/2015
    11:20 EDT - Delta (DAL) and Southwest (LUV) are expected to announce big capital-return initiatives this week, according to Cowen & Co., further evidence of the rapidly improving financials of the airline industry. The analyst consensus is DAL will announce a $3B-$3.5B share-buyback program, though Cowen forecasts a $4B program. Cowen also expects LUV to start a $1B-$1.5B share-buyback program.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Airlines Expected to Announce Capital Returns This Week -- Market Talk
    — 11:20 AM ET 05/11/2015
    11:20 EDT - Delta (DAL) and Southwest (LUV) are expected to announce big capital-return initiatives this week, according to Cowen & Co., further evidence of the rapidly improving financials of the airline industry. The analyst consensus is DAL will announce a $3B-$3.5B share-buyback program, though Cowen forecasts a $4B program. Cowen also expects LUV to start a $1B-$1.5B share-buyback program.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy