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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

med_investor 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2015 11:11 PM Member since: Jan 31, 1999
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  • Reply to

    My Guess: New offers coming

    by adelfig Jul 16, 2015 3:50 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 19, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    New offer? Investors are selling the sector and there many companies in the sector with cheap price tag but will get much cheaper in next few months. Expecting MPLX price drop much lower and MWE will be pulled down too.

  • med_investor by med_investor Jul 18, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    It can drop fast if oil prices go below $50.

  • Show us some cash. Any company can print shares but HZNP knows it is at its peak and it has to take advantage of it while all media pumpers are highlighting this junk stock.

  • HZNP is a company located outside US and it does not want to risk a penny in cash but offer shares that no one knows where tt will end up price wise.

  • Reply to

    Happy 4th

    by cash_is_king_now Jul 4, 2015 3:05 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 6, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    biomattica,
    I should not answer to your stupid remarks since you display yourself as someone with lack of experience and a lot of ignorance.
    Q2 is a transition quarter that includes $22m of non-recurring charge because of Nucynta acquisition. Even with this one time charge, Q2 income is much better than Q1, probably positive income and for sure positive and good cash flow. However, with Q3 and following quarters, DEPO will start accumulating a lot of cash. The debt will be nothing compare to DEPO income and future acquisition.
    Only a few weeks left to DEPO lift off and you may never see these discounted prices anymore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Happy 4th

    by cash_is_king_now Jul 4, 2015 3:05 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 4, 2015 8:56 PM Flag

    correction: DEPO loss for Q2 (not Q1) will be $.01 per share with conservative calculations.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Happy 4th

    by cash_is_king_now Jul 4, 2015 3:05 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 4, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    After all, Q2 will be reported in August, The following is my extreme conservative calculation.
    1- Supposed that Nucynta revenue had zero growth compare to Q1 or $44m for Q2.
    2- Supposed that price increase was effective only for 2 months of Q2 or $13m more revenue.
    3- Supposed that other depo produced $34m or 6% more over Q1 where Q1 is the lowest one historically.

    Q2 Nucymta rev = $57m
    Q2 other drugs = $34m
    Total Q2 rev = $91 m.

    Nucynta expenses for Q2:
    $11m cost of revenue ($44 * 25%). 25% is a high value but better be conservative.
    $14.4m cost of interest for new money (calculated at 10% since Libor 3 month is about 0.25%).
    $3.6m cost of 120 new reps at $120k per year for a quarter or 3 months.
    $22m non-recurring.
    Total Nucynta Q2 expenses = $51m
    Net Cash produced by Nucyntan in Q2 = $57m - $51 = $6m

    Assuming that other drugs have the same expenses as Q1 then $2m extra rev compare to Q1 produces $1.5m after expenses.
    Bottom line is that Q2 produces $7.5m more net cash than Q1($6m Nucynta + $1.5m other drugs) after all expenses.
    $7.5m produces $.12 per share.
    If DEPO lost $.13 then the loss for Q1 is $.01 with worst case scenario.
    DEPO can do much better if conservative calculation is not used.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Happy 4th

    by cash_is_king_now Jul 4, 2015 3:05 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 4, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    I am sure that Depomed is investigating other drugs or even other small companies that can fit DEPO.
    In addition, it is true that Q3 is inflection point where non-recurring or accounting changes are in the past.
    DEPO will have large cash flow starting with Q3 and quarters after that.
    Shorts have no choice but reduce their positions before institutions pour money in the company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • med_investor med_investor Jul 4, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    If somebody tell us that patients don't know about pain drugs that then he probably does not understand most of patients especially those patients who have to deal with pain for years. That poster only sees what he wanted to see. Plato says
    “We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.”
    It is total ignorance that a poster who never dealt with the pain speaks for all patients. Probably if he does some research and read some of patients comments then may realize how wrong he is.
    It is true that some causal patients relay on their doctors but most patients who deal with pain for years do a lot of research about their medication especially this kind of medication that can be abused, addicted or other side effects. Happy 4th of July.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • DEPO is selling them cheaper than generic. These drugs have legal and other expenses to protect their patents and it is fair to raise the prices to cover those expenses.

  • Reply to

    NUCYNTA will make DEPO very rich

    by med_investor Jul 1, 2015 3:31 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jul 1, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    Lets calculated 2016 based on 2015 numbers.
    Run rate will be around 290k TRx in Q4. Add 6% average increase per quarter and the whole year will be about 15%. TRx in 2016 = (290 * 4) * (1.15) = 1334k
    Nucynta 2016 rev = 1334k * $250 = $334m
    Other DEPO drugs will produce $160m.
    Total DEPO 2016 rev = $334m + $160m = $494m.

    Will DEPO add more drugs? It is very possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Nucynta produced 990k TRx in 2014 (both ER and IR sum).
    248k TRx average per quarter for both kinds.
    3 quarters in 2014 produces 744K TRx and 10% increase in 2015 with extra reps put it at 818k.
    Each TRx before price increase was $174 and after price increase is $250 in average.
    DEPO Nucynta rev in 2015 = $250 * 818k = $204m
    Other DEPO drugs rev in 2014 = $140m.
    Total DEPO rev in 2015 = $204m + $140m = $344m

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This goal will be accomplished in 2017.
    This is not a wishful thinking since oxycodone and a few others are generating billions per year and they are not as good as Nucynta.
    The below calculation assumes average numbers as follow:
    Each rep can convince 50 doctors out of hundreds per year.
    Each doctor prescribe for 50 patients per year.
    Each patients uses Nucynta for 200 days per year (some use it for a few weeks and some a few years).
    Each day cost is assumed as $20.

    275 reps * 50 doctors * 50 patients * 200 days * $20 per day = $2.75B (for one year revenue)

    Now, some reps may have less and others more doctors and each doctor may prescribe more or less but the potential is huge. If a patient discontinue then other patients will be added.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Next acquisition is planned and DEPO is not stopping at this point.
    If HZNP can do it, DEPO can do much better.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • 3 times reps are marketing Nucynta with 44% higher price.
    Do a math, DEPO profit is on a sharp rise.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    hey Jim

    by biomattica Jun 26, 2015 11:37 AM
    med_investor med_investor Jun 26, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    If you think that DEPO pays this interest rate for years then you are dead wrong. This is a temporarily situation and most companies in transition will see kind of this situation which is ok. It is much better than losing money and waiting for grass to grow. As DEPO revenue and income grow then paying interest is not a bad idea. Do you rather pay 30% to 45% of taxes with no growth or pay 10% of interest and get some growth? Besides, taxes do not generate money or growth while borrowing money grow the company. Meanwhile, some of the interest will be back thru the taxes which is the best way for small companies to go.
    DEPO is in the best hands and I see a company with a lot of potential, huge future income and small share outstanding.
    When income grows then debt can be paid off or refinanced with lower cost but at start you need to pay a little more for doors to open for you .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO supposed to launch Nucynta today

    by med_investor Jun 15, 2015 3:54 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jun 15, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    "above and beyond the expectations"
    DEPO is already down over 26% from its top in past 3 months based on that "above and beyond the expectations". This above and beyond expectation is a fake scenario created by those who try to ignore reality and make a quick buck. Q1 earnings was included some one time charges for Nucynta acquisition and also effective of new accounting which did not include revenue from an old product sale anymore.
    However, DEPO displayed a good growth in product sale year over year.
    Nucynta was launched today while only 2 weeks left in the quarter. Of course JNJ marketing team supposed to do the job while transition and some reps probably felt losing their jobs and not putting 100%.
    In addition, the price increase probably was not benefited fully because of some inventory.
    Now if DEPO could match estimates then they have done above and beyond expectation.
    Nucynta Q1 revenue was $44m. For Nucynta Q2, If DEPO can get $42m plus $11m for price increase or $53m then it has done above and beyond expectation. DEPO will get $35m or more from other drugs in Q2 which sum up to $88m or more. Some how I feel that DEPO will get revenue something above $90m for Q2 which will pushes the price above $23.

  • I have to break my investing rule that forces me to exit before earnings report but I am going to hold and add more shares of DEPO before and after Q2 earnings. The reason is that DEPO will beat revenue estimate by a good number and it may raise the estimates or let analysts raise them for Q3 and Q4.

  • Being in the Silicon Valley, I have read that DEPO CEO likes new technologies and I think he will go digital for advertising. Anyway, DEPO investors are in right hand. If ENDP with 5.5B debt can do it where it trades at 5 to 6 times its revenue then DEPO should do it too. Of course, it may take one or two quarters for some slow investors to realize it but they will eventually.
    My prediction is that DEPO will be over $30 before year end.

  • Reply to

    Bewawre cavemansmile and gfys ids

    by imho_dyodd Jun 3, 2015 12:55 PM
    med_investor med_investor Jun 4, 2015 1:13 AM Flag

    This is exactly the point. They coordinate together. Yes, they, means people outside and inside of the company. Unfortunately some new people fall for their trick and buy some shares and lose money eventually.

WAG
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