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Walgreen Co. Message Board

med_investor 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 8:19 AM Member since: Jan 31, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Gralise approval in EU countries and Japan

    by shirazi2001us Apr 15, 2014 12:58 AM
    med_investor med_investor Apr 15, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Company has an ad for Chief Medical Officer with us and international experiences.
    DEPO probably plans to do some R&D or expands internationally. Acquiring a company with R&D may make sense.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 21, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Martin is wrong. Any shareholder owns over 5%, has to file in 10 days or so if he sells.
    The only thing that is suspicious is another bad news. May be Switzerland ejected OIC for Amitiza since UK did not accept it. This is probably another reason that Peter is quiet. What do you expect him to do?
    May be Ueno did another mistake and board fire him. There may be people in the company who did not like Ueno or he did not get along with some scientists. I know that Ueno made everything in his favor thru contract with his private company. Investors did not trust the company since Ueno seems not trusty.
    All above are short term bad news but good news long term.

  • Reply to

    Martin buddy

    by bestinvestor14 Mar 20, 2014 2:25 PM
    med_investor med_investor Mar 20, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I won't happen since the company has an independent Board and CEO.

  • Reply to

    Martin buddy

    by bestinvestor14 Mar 20, 2014 2:25 PM
    med_investor med_investor Mar 20, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    I think we will know in a few months some kind of plan for this company.
    Peter was at his previous job only for a few months before joining SCMP. He probably saw something very interesting to switch job that quickly.
    Now, there is a choice here that S&R TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS, LLC buys the rest of outstanding shares shares and makes it a private company.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 19, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    With $660 m, HZNP could buy a local company with more than one drugs plus a pipeline of other drugs.
    V acquisition (only $35 m) was a gift but I cannot say the same about this deal. $660 m is more than POZN and SCMP combind market cap.

  • Reply to

    Where does SCMP go with new changes

    by med_investor Mar 18, 2014 3:18 PM
    med_investor med_investor Mar 18, 2014 5:49 PM Flag

    The liquid version for pediatric will cover 6 months to 6 years. It is hard to test and measure. Also FDA is more sensative although Amitiza is proven to be safe for children.
    The bigger market is for 7 to 17 years old using capsule. SCMP did a test for ages 3 to 17 years old last year and result was good and Amitiza was safe (depending on weight, the dosage was changed). I am thinking that SCMP will go ahead (actually speeds up) and gets this one while researching the liquid version.
    With capturing 7 to 17 years old (the fast foods and sugar have increased patient population in this range ages significantly), SCMP will be the first company to capture the market with safe and effective drug.

  • Where do you find a pharma company with positive cash flow, profitable that is growing while it is doing a heavy R&D to lock success for its future growth but trade in a depressed prices. SCMP has 25 PHD in its stuff, mostly work in R&D.
    Today, if SCMP reduces its R&D significantly and puts more time and money in sales/marketing, its income goes to roof and the stock price will double and triple in a short time. However, its long time future may not be bright with no R&D. HZNP does not develop any drug, with 2 drugs and getting marketing right to third, its price went from mid-$4 to $14 in just a few months and it is not profitable yet.
    POZN generates revenue under $5 m per quarter but it does very small R&D with just 16 or less employees. The stock price keeps going up.
    So, this company can be a great investment if it continues to new trend, hiring a CEO with significant sale/marketing experience, reducing costs (Rescula case) and doing other a few things that adds to income but reduces the costs.
    I clearly see this trend is coming and I hope to see SCMP increases its profit instead of putting more efforts in R&D. I look at costs for getting approval in UK and Switzerland over $15 m in 2013. This money was not wasted but investors did not creditted SCMP.

  • med_investor med_investor Mar 18, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    No, I meant recent setbacks. Of course, he has to review, plan and take some immediate actions.

  • med_investor med_investor Mar 18, 2014 12:44 PM Flag

    New CEO has been busy with a few fires so but he will get his chance soon.
    May be SCMP does not need to go hunting for a partner since it has one with strong present all over the world. I am talking about its current partner Abbott, and both can extend their relationship to other countries.

    For 2014, I am expecting
    1- Amitiza sale to grow over 10% in US.
    2- Amitiza sale to grow over 50% in Japan
    3- Amitiza sale to bring rev above $3m in UK and Switzerland.
    4- Amitiza to be approved in Canada.
    5- Amitiza to be approved in EU countries.
    6- Amitiza clinical for ages 7 to 17 years using capsule for US approval to continue. This is a large market for Amitiza since millions and pre-clinical tests have shown a very good results so far.
    7- Search for Amitiza liquid formulation to continue this year.

    If SCMP finds another partner or extends its relationship with current partners, then that is a bonus.
    In addition, there are a few more things in the pipeline that may add to SCMP future growth but above are something that I am looking forward for near term growth and most are very possible.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 16, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    The liquid form of Amitiza is a long term goal and it does affect short term growth. The report put it clearly that the liquid form will be pursued "The FDA feedback and study results provide useful direction as we seek to develop an alternative formulation of AMITIZA for a wider range of patients who may need it."
    So, this is just delayed. The delay may be a few months to one year. There are different technology in the market that SCMP can buy or lease for its new formulation.

    There a few hanging fruits that SCMP can maximize its present. Amitiza is a proven medicine and SCMP should be able to get approval in Canada, EU countries, South America countries, other Asian countries and Middle East. With a CEO familiar with international market, SCMP can get a significant growth just from Amitiza market.
    Meanwhile, SCMP can follow to some of its promising drugs in its pipeline. No need to get them all but a few should be enough to put this company at market cap of 2 billion. This is doable when the marketing is expanded by new CEO. Rescula is sitting in the shelves and it needs to be market smartly to bring revenue.

    Monday action will be interesting since weak hands and shorts try to scare some investors. The liquid Amitiza delay should not have any effect on current SCMP revenue/income and growth.
    Currently, SCMP is trading at a market cap below many other stocks in the sector that have no income or even a promising pipeline with high cash burn. Any more discount will be an opportunity for institutional and retail investors.

  • Current consensus calls for rev of $24m and income of $.04 per share.
    The above info should be updated by the company and analysts.
    Q4, 2013 revenue was $24.5 m, GAAP income was $.05 and non-GAAP was $.06 per share.
    Q4, 2013 Amitiza us rev went up 7.6% sequentially compare to Q3, 2013 (US Amitiza rev reported by Takeda was Q3 = $72.5m and Q4=$78M).
    If this trend continues even at lower pace of 5%, US Amitiza rev will be $84 m and SCMP royalty from it will be $15.6 m.
    So, the following will be Q1 2014 revenue
    Amitiza US rev = $15.6 m *** royalty from Takeda
    Amitiza Japan rev = $5.2 m ****assuming almost flat
    Amitiza Europe = $0.4 m ***** (UK, Switzerland)
    R&D revenue = $4.1 m ***** SCMP gets this rev from partners, same as other quarters
    Other revenue = $.5 m **** products sale, collaboration, contracts…
    Total Rev for Q1 2014 = $25.8 m
    Net income = $.07 per share (less or no charges for Rescula).

    I tried to be very conservative but even with 2% error in the worst case, the rev will be $25.3 m , income $.06 per share or higher.

    Good Luck.

  • Having a second indication in UK was nice but it does not affect SCMP at All.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 11, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Some people are still wondering about recent management move but it seems that SCMP tries to change things around to get more value out of its business.
    Both Takeda and SCMP made peace last year since this is the only way to compete while getting new indications like pediatric and senior version of Amitiza. After all, SCMP can use new indications in Japan, EU and other countries for itself alone.
    In addition, we may get Q1 outlook tomorrow during the CC.

    Good day to add in.

  • med_investor med_investor Mar 8, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Thanks cash for the post,
    But back to Martin's question, higher high and higher low will continue. The most reason for sell off after each rise is Cantor Fitzgerald and agreement with SCMP to sell $20 m. It sold $5.3 million for 749,383 shares in December 2013. Average price was about $7. This is the most stupid action of SCMP, and CFO is blamed for this action since he seems to be stuck in a startup company with no money and resources. Of course, Dr Ueno is responsible for acting very conservatively. First, SCMP is profitable and it does not need this money. Second, why selling shares this cheap to put pressure on PPS. Third, you do not put a FOX to guard the hen house. Fourth, if you want money for any purpose then issue a convertible a 40% higher than current price. 5 million shares at $11 produce $55 millions, $5 m for expenses and company gets $50 million right away to pay off debt or other expenses. After all, this action put the PPS at $12 right away and keeps going up. Everybody from Dr Ueno and other directors and insiders and shareholders benefit.
    Hopefully, Cantor has sold most of the its shares by now when the price hit $11 in early this year and last week when the price went up to $10. And I want to point out why we have such rise with good new like recent earnings report but price drops below the earnings report.
    New CEO needs to fix these problems and force CFO to act more responsible and consult financial experts before taking an easy way out.

  • med_investor med_investor Mar 7, 2014 12:53 AM Flag

    These are projected but not updated after the earnings. As vegas pointed out, these numbers may be raised . I mean I look at q1 rev and it is projected below last quarter. Some of these numbers needed to be adjusted or to be raised.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 5, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    When a small trader puts a few thousands shares for sale in the morning in hope of buying them back at lower price before the close, he may not see his shares back unless to pay much higher prices.

  • Reply to

    The main thing to remember is

    by bestinvestor14 Mar 5, 2014 3:32 PM
    med_investor med_investor Mar 5, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    I don't play little or scared from low volume. I look at fundamentals and new blood and eventually, the company is in right track. The chicken game for little traders and shorts come to end here. It may take a little time but SCMP will get to position it deserves. The market cap should be over $1 Billion and we will be there sooner or later.

  • med_investor med_investor Mar 5, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Give him some times for getting used to new evironment, to arrange his desk and know the building, to start contacting banks and investment firms and eventually execute firmly.

  • med_investor by med_investor Mar 5, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    IRWD or SGYP do not have it and they may never get it while SCMP is growing revenue at rate of 31% per month in average for this indication. SCMP eventually will be respected for its value.

  • Reply to

    Mr. Peter Greenleaf welcome to SCMP as CEO

    by med_investor Mar 2, 2014 11:34 AM
    med_investor med_investor Mar 3, 2014 12:48 AM Flag

    Q4 momentum will continue in Q1 and all of 2014, especially now that Amitiza is selling in UK and Switzerland, Rescula starts with new marketing and Amitiza has more indication in US, specifically prescribed by pain specialists which prescriptions were increased 31% per month in average for that purpose.
    In US, Amitiza maintained a preferred managed care position with 90% of insured covered nationally.
    Amitiza sale increased 215% in 2013 compare to 2012 in Japan. 2014 will not slow down but increases again.
    We will hear about other countries in EU, Asia, South America and emerging markets.

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