Current consensus calls for rev of $24m and income of $.04 per share.
The above info should be updated by the company and analysts.
Q4, 2013 revenue was $24.5 m, GAAP income was $.05 and non-GAAP was $.06 per share.
Q4, 2013 Amitiza us rev went up 7.6% sequentially compare to Q3, 2013 (US Amitiza rev reported by Takeda was Q3 = $72.5m and Q4=$78M).
If this trend continues even at lower pace of 5%, US Amitiza rev will be $84 m and SCMP royalty from it will be $15.6 m.
So, the following will be Q1 2014 revenue
Amitiza US rev = $15.6 m *** royalty from Takeda
Amitiza Japan rev = $5.2 m ****assuming almost flat
Amitiza Europe = $0.4 m ***** (UK, Switzerland)
R&D revenue = $4.1 m ***** SCMP gets this rev from partners, same as other quarters
Other revenue = $.5 m **** products sale, collaboration, contracts…
Total Rev for Q1 2014 = $25.8 m
Net income = $.07 per share (less or no charges for Rescula).
I tried to be very conservative but even with 2% error in the worst case, the rev will be $25.3 m , income $.06 per share or higher.
Having a second indication in UK was nice but it does not affect SCMP at All.
Some people are still wondering about recent management move but it seems that SCMP tries to change things around to get more value out of its business.
Both Takeda and SCMP made peace last year since this is the only way to compete while getting new indications like pediatric and senior version of Amitiza. After all, SCMP can use new indications in Japan, EU and other countries for itself alone.
In addition, we may get Q1 outlook tomorrow during the CC.
Good day to add in.
Thanks cash for the post,
But back to Martin's question, higher high and higher low will continue. The most reason for sell off after each rise is Cantor Fitzgerald and agreement with SCMP to sell $20 m. It sold $5.3 million for 749,383 shares in December 2013. Average price was about $7. This is the most stupid action of SCMP, and CFO is blamed for this action since he seems to be stuck in a startup company with no money and resources. Of course, Dr Ueno is responsible for acting very conservatively. First, SCMP is profitable and it does not need this money. Second, why selling shares this cheap to put pressure on PPS. Third, you do not put a FOX to guard the hen house. Fourth, if you want money for any purpose then issue a convertible a 40% higher than current price. 5 million shares at $11 produce $55 millions, $5 m for expenses and company gets $50 million right away to pay off debt or other expenses. After all, this action put the PPS at $12 right away and keeps going up. Everybody from Dr Ueno and other directors and insiders and shareholders benefit.
Hopefully, Cantor has sold most of the its shares by now when the price hit $11 in early this year and last week when the price went up to $10. And I want to point out why we have such rise with good new like recent earnings report but price drops below the earnings report.
New CEO needs to fix these problems and force CFO to act more responsible and consult financial experts before taking an easy way out.
These are projected but not updated after the earnings. As vegas pointed out, these numbers may be raised . I mean I look at q1 rev and it is projected below last quarter. Some of these numbers needed to be adjusted or to be raised.
When a small trader puts a few thousands shares for sale in the morning in hope of buying them back at lower price before the close, he may not see his shares back unless to pay much higher prices.
I don't play little or scared from low volume. I look at fundamentals and new blood and eventually, the company is in right track. The chicken game for little traders and shorts come to end here. It may take a little time but SCMP will get to position it deserves. The market cap should be over $1 Billion and we will be there sooner or later.
Give him some times for getting used to new evironment, to arrange his desk and know the building, to start contacting banks and investment firms and eventually execute firmly.
IRWD or SGYP do not have it and they may never get it while SCMP is growing revenue at rate of 31% per month in average for this indication. SCMP eventually will be respected for its value.
Q4 momentum will continue in Q1 and all of 2014, especially now that Amitiza is selling in UK and Switzerland, Rescula starts with new marketing and Amitiza has more indication in US, specifically prescribed by pain specialists which prescriptions were increased 31% per month in average for that purpose.
In US, Amitiza maintained a preferred managed care position with 90% of insured covered nationally.
Amitiza sale increased 215% in 2013 compare to 2012 in Japan. 2014 will not slow down but increases again.
We will hear about other countries in EU, Asia, South America and emerging markets.
SCMP is really in need of a strong CEO to commercialize its current and future drugs that will return value to the shareholders. Shareholders are hopping that you put SCMP at a position that it deserves. Current, SCMP PPS is very depressed and undervalued compare to many peer stocks or stock in the sector. I am hopping that this will change in the future.
I believe in the management capability, however the growth will slow down eventually and that is why acquisition of new drugs is important. HZNP was kind of lucky and smart on its acquisition from POZN but the same opportunity with little money may be hard to find again. On the other hand, HZNP needs money for new acquisitions and the best way to do it is to replace the current convertible with a new one with at least $300 m.
That gives HZNP power to look for 2 to 3 more drugs to handle.
$10 and $12 were achieved. Probably $15 will be here if HZNP announces a new drug acquisition plus new financing to pay off current bond and replace it with a new higher one. The new convertible should be over $15 per share. There are a few drugs that HZNP can contract. This the time for HZNP to switch to areas other than pain killers. A poster compared HZNP to JAZZ, a company that is offering over 30 different drugs and producing huge income and cash flow. HZNP needs to acquire more diverse drugs. RESCULA is new drug by SCMP, but the company has a hard time to commercialize it. I am sure that HZNP can take it over and makes money for itself and SCMP too.
The guidance was updated yesterday by Yahoo but it has not changed yet for new up trend that we have seen in Q4. I believe these guidance will be changed and and analysts will raise the guidance in coming days.
It is funny when a medical small cap company with 2 proming approved drugs, very low float, good cash position and a few important drugs in its in pipeline in phase III and II is trading at this forward PE below 14. The growth is over 100%. May be the new CEO can put some analysts CC and so investors start to know the company and its potential. I think previous CEO is a good scientiest but not a good communicator. The new CEO will fill the gap. This is time to get in and wait.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
There are a few things that makes SCMP extremly undervalued here. The most point is that the stock is unknown to many investors. Growth of 100% in this field is something that usually should be rewarded hugely. The company has realized a need for a fresh CEO to introduce the stock to potential investors and this will achieve soon. The stock should be traded over $20 by now but still a single digit. A few more news will push it higher, probably close to $15. Another point of changing CEO is that the company may be acquired by another larger one.
So, do not try to teach it anything.