HZNP estimates have calculated wrongly by analysts in past few quarters. Last quarter was wrong by 68%.
They are wrong again for Q4 and also next year.
My calculations says HZNP will break even for Q4 and it will be profitable in Q1, 2014.
This situation will continue for a while until either enough volume is built or another big news is around.
The stock has doubled in past 2 months and some investors thinks it is time to cash in. That has been my biggest investing mistake in the past. When I doubled my money in PCYC or a few other stocks, I thought that was good enough. However, I could make over 10 fold if I stayed in PCYC and SLXP. All I needed to see main reason for them to go up in spite of a rough road. Although the market has pushed some stocks to high levels recently with or without any progress in their fundamentals, but this is not the case for HZNP since we are talking about significant fundamental change in the company. This is not a case of “A rising tide lifts all boats”. This is a trend that has been started a while ago but we have been seeing some of the results in past two months. This trend will not stop but continues even stronger in future. This is not the time for me to be satisfied with a single run but I want a home run since I missed so many other home runs.
Well, if some medical companies do not know how to commercialize and sell their drugs (most small ones don’t know how) then here is Horizon with experience and man power to do it in a much better way. So, there will be many deals with different flavors but bottom line is that Horizon will benefits and becomes much larger company with much better income in future. Well, if some medical companies do not know how to commercialize and sell their drugs (most small ones don’t know how) then here is Horizon with experience and man power to do it in a much better way. So, there will be many deals with different flavors but bottom line is that Horizon will benefits and becomes much larger company with much better income in future.
I bought SLXP at $5 and higher, SVNT under $5, PCYC around $12 ( it is around $125)...
Did I hold any of them to maturity? No I did not. Sold SLXP around $16, SVNT around $11, PCYC around $20....I had some losers too. ARNA was a loser for m. I invest in techs, financially, energy and other sectors too.
Anyway, you should not be worry about note conversion and dilution since there are many limitation and rules before note holders can convert.
However, Horizon CFO should have been started process of negotiation for next note to pay off this note and the rest for next acquisition. The next note will have higher money, higher strike and cap prices and better terms. Of course, all above are possible when the company execute well and PPS rises.
Let me give you one example. SLXP issued a convertible note in 2008 for $60 M. In mid 2010, SLXP issued anther convertible note for $345 M to pay off 2008 note and the rest for other uses. SLXP paid dearly for 2008 note with cash but it did not convert it to shares except for a very small number number. SLXP paid $137 M just for 42% of 2008 note.
It is very important to have an experienced CFO since down the road it may strangle the company with a bad deal or unnecessary deals that make the company cash rich but no income or products. This cash will be used eventually to pay management fat salaries where shareholders become poor.
SLXP share outstanding is still low and almost unchanged since years ago in spite of several acquisitions. I am hoping HZNP will do the same good job as SLXP since it is following almost the same modal of business.
As I said, note conversion has time, price and other limitations so I am not worry about this matter at this time.
Ok, I said hznp will get to $10 in hurry since
A) It knows how to sell drugs
B) It has 3 drugs to sell so far
C) It will generate income in 2014
D) It has a good CEO and management
Remember that most medical startups put years on one drug and they may make it or not.
That is why HZNP is interesting and reminds me of SLXP (I stepped in SLXP at $5).
HZNP has some weaknesses too. CFO and accounting should do better than this.
If it was me, I pay $35 M from existing cash for new drug and with strong Q3, I let the stock runs to $10 before starting to get in convertible note. HZNP could get $250 M at strike price of $14 and cap price of $18 at 2.5% interest rate.
This is another try for capped call transition, the one that THRX did in Jan 2013.
THRX got $250 M @ 2.125%, strike price of $27.79, cap price of $38 where its price was $20.97.
The following is from THRX filing:
"The capped call options are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution upon conversion of the notes in the event that the market price of the Company's common stock, as measured under the terms of the capped call transactions, is greater than the strike price of the capped call transactions, which initially corresponds to the conversion price of the notes, and is expected to be subject to customary anti-dilution adjustments. However, if the market price of the Company's common stock, as measured under the terms of the capped call transactions, exceeds the cap price of the capped call transactions, the anti-dilutive effect of the capped call transactions will be limited."
As above is confirming again, the anti-dilution works only from strike price to cap price. That is the reason the spread between strike price and cap price should be large enough to benefit most. Unfortunately, HZNP did not get a good deal from bankers and CFO should have done a better job than this deal.
First, I do not know why hand is not trading at $10 right away since it is in much better position than many stocks in its sector.
Second, you keep talking about 14 M shares. If it was 50% hedge then the filing was saying it. It is 100% or 28 M shares.
Third, there are many examples from other companies and you better read some of them to understand it.
This is the first time I am doing research in convertible notes with capped call transactions and I am updating myself as I do more or if I make a mistake.
It looks funny and that what I did not believe originally until I went thru other companies that issued note similar to Horizon. Here is one from AMD:
"If, however, the market value per share of the Company’s common stock, as measured under the terms of the capped call, exceeds the cap price of the capped call, there would be dilution to the extent that the then market value per share of the common stock exceeds the cap price."
The problem is that Horizon set low strike price and worse is that the cap price is very close to strike price. I think somebody fooled them by percentages.
VVUS issued note in last May, set the strike price over $14 and cap price at $20. While the stock was around $10.
The second mistake is high interest rate of 5%. Most companies get it around 0 to 3% these days.
My guess is that Horizon may do anther note with something around $250 M, pay off this note and gets much better terms and interest rate. May be it wants to purchase another drug and utilize its commercial settings.
It costs Horizon a conversion price of $5.36 as long as the average price is between $5.36 to $6.71. On the other hand, the hedge funds who bought the caped call transaction are responsible to provide the shares. If the price goes above $6.71 then Horizon needs to provide shares as much as x price minus $6.71.
In your example, if one share conversion happens at $7 the hedge funds is responsible to provide $1.35 and Horizon $5.36 of initial strike plus $0.29 ($7 - $6.71).
The number of shares initially is $150M / $5.36 = 28 M shares.
Horizon paid $18.7 M as insurance to benefit $1.35 * 28 M = $37.8 M in case the price goes to $6.71 or higher. However, Horizon is still responsible for prices above $6.71.
I do not understand one point.
If you care about human in general then you try to cover as much people as possible. So if you add China and India only, then you may have over 2 billion people. Now add Europe, Africa, South America, mid-east and so on… and we are talking about over 7 billions.
All these people have different languages. Then someone only says Shalom to cover 5 to 6 million people and ignores a few billion people. Even if you say Salom instead of shalom, you will cover over 300 MM people.
Just my observation.
So, $150 MM is about 28 MM shares at $5.36, the strike price.
However, the company paid $18.7 MM for capped call transaction. My understanding is that if price goes above $6.71 then there is no cost to HZNP bout the counter party (the one who got $18.7 MM) should pay the rest with cash or shares. Thus, the counter party should buy as much as 28 MM shares below $7.35 to make money.
The price $7.35 comes from ($6.71 + $18.7MM / 28 MM).
This is another wave that will lose more money while the big guy sell and recover some of their losses.
That is the way this drug works. It clot to do something useful.