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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

med_investor 219 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Jan 31, 1999
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  • med_investor med_investor Nov 3, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Specialty businesses are $70B comprise of many small businesses and they mostly benefit patients better than ES and CVS. But the devils like ES tries to dominate and control and do one size fits all strategy.
    No wonder ES bad mouth them at every opportunity.

  • Reply to

    VRX, HZRN, and DEPO

    by litheguy Oct 31, 2015 10:16 PM
    med_investor med_investor Nov 2, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    ---one of t the smartest thing DEPO did recently was to use the NY Times article to lay into HZNP---
    I am wondering what else can DEPO do in dark?
    Will doctors and patients trust a company that is in business of dirty actions. At least VRX did it for the company but DEPO is doing it for a few top management.

  • Nov 6 and Nov 9.
    Is TW a boxer? But he know how to knock out.
    After a big day on next Friday with HZNP earnings (expecting a beat and outlook raise), the next Monday will put business strategy with clear path ahead with or without DEPO. HZNP will separate itself from rumors and misinformation, something it could not do in details before the earnings. One thing is for sure, it will target DEPO false and unfair statements and probably advise them to act maturely and be responsible for what they put in their PR before they get in trouble.

  • Reply to

    Stick to the HZNP Facts

    by geringerart Oct 31, 2015 4:30 PM
    med_investor med_investor Nov 1, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    ES stand for Express Script, a company with the largest PBM.
    Two of HZNP drugs (Duexis, Vimovo) were excluded about 2 years ago but HZNP created a system called PME which acts like PBM, a simply way I can explain it. However, big guys like ES and CVS do not like it since they are afraid that this may become a trend for others to follow.
    Remember that WAG tried to do the same a few years ago but ES stopped to do any business with WAG. ES directed its business to RAD and CVS which damaged WAG. Eventually, WAG negotiated with ES to take lower profit.

  • Reply to

    VRX has accounting problems, HZNP is clean

    by med_investor Oct 31, 2015 9:14 PM
    med_investor med_investor Nov 1, 2015 12:51 AM Flag

    One of the reason we are at current prices is that some of the HZNP strong shareholders left and too many shares ended up in hands of hedge funds who can manipulate the shares. We have seen large swings to either side. Yes, Hillary, VRX, NYT and many others contributed and shacked out some of shareholders but if major holders could hold then the stock should not perform worse than DEPO.
    This deal will not be an opportunistic deal anymore and TW should stop it right away and concentrates on the business and other deals, deals that consider new environment.

  • So far, some media have misled people and shareholders by linking VRX to HZNP for something that HZNP has not done or is not capable to do. Most articles that criticize VRX also mention HZNP as same business model but do not mention that VRX is in trouble because of its accounting while HZNP is clean. The problem is that the most of them do not understand the sector and do not know that almost all companies in the sector with drug manufacturing and sell, with or without R&D, have to acquire other smaller companies for growth and they cannot just rely on their R&D. GILD paid $12B for its HEP C drug and ABBV paid over $20B for PCYC. They ultimately bought new drugs, raised prices significantly to make billions and HZNP price increase is less than 1% of them. Media is blind to see these facts. It amazes me that HZNP, a small company that is barely profitable, is singled out and linked to VRX without any proof. All I can say is something to do with DEPO acquisition. If there was something wrong with HZNP business then Andrew Left and many other short sellers could not stay quiet about HZNP.
    VRX is a large cap with many drugs, sizable cash and very aggressive growth model. It has to show this high growth constantly to keep its high 3 digits PPS. When it was behind then it went a dirt way and cooked its books thru a few drug specialty companies.
    HZNP is a small company with limited drugs and only 3 drugs that use specialties.
    First, there is not much money involves for HZNP to go to dirt road.
    Second, HZNP does not own or have option to own a specialty and there is no reason or profit for HZNP to do it. VRX was under pressure to show high revenue and it did it for that reason while HZNP struggle to acquire another smaller company.
    VRX has accounting problem and please show me one evidence or reason that HZNP has done the same. Put aside mindless and copycat media that write something without any research and proof

  • Reply to

    DEPO Sales Execution

    by russianmule2000 Oct 27, 2015 4:57 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 28, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Not only DEPO is paying 10.75% for $575m ($61.81m per year) and 2.5% for $345m convertible ($8.63m per year, it also paid sum of $13m + $11m for loan expenses.
    DEPO pays $70.44m of interest and if interest rate goes higher, the payment will be higher.
    Total Debt is $920m. If DEPO stock goes above $20 and bondholders convert and dilute the shares (at least by 25% to 33%) then the income will drop by that percentage. Even $8.63m per year saving of convertible will not do anything since it increases DEPO taxes.
    It will be a lose lose situation for DEPO anyway you look at it. The only winner will be DEPO management but not the shareholders.

  • Reply to

    DEPO Sales Execution

    by russianmule2000 Oct 27, 2015 4:57 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 27, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    In addition, DEPO is selling higher dosages and the charges are based on number of milligram.
    For example, 200 mg is charged twice as much 100 mg drug.
    Still, DEPO execution is average at its best and below average when all these excitements are gone.
    Compare to HZNP, well HZNP has proven to be master of marketing.

  • Reply to

    HZNP extention

    by cash_is_king_now Oct 27, 2015 2:44 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 27, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    You are right on the money cash.
    Today, the sector had a good day but Oct 29 is getting close and some investors are playing with caution.
    However, many investors will be looking for depressed stocks in the sector since most have recovered.
    HZNP will be one stock that is ready to put record gain like last Friday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    7,873 DEPO shares tendered!!

    by cosmichemorrhold Oct 26, 2015 7:06 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 26, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    May be it is 7,873k,
    probably k was missed. HZNP has 2250k itself.

  • Reply to

    Offer extended to Nov 20

    by arnold_for_california Oct 26, 2015 6:16 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 26, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    As long as HZNP PPS stays behind DEPO then tender offer at 0.95 is dead.
    I do not understand the extension but may be, I just saying may be, HZNP has something to offer that will push its PPS much higher after the earnings on NOV 6. It wants to give DEPO shareholders another opportunity for tendering their shares when HZNP shares are at much higher prices, provided that there is not another hidden VRX .

  • 7,873 shares of Depomed common stock were validly tendered. Big news.
    Even 30,000,000 shares will not do anything.
    This is waste of time, energy and resources.
    This model of buy, raise price and sell will not work anymore since it is highlighted and all are sensitive to it.
    Lets do more development.
    Lets buy drugs in their last stages and complete them for approval.
    Lets buy a small companies that have revenue/income and R&D both.
    Lets buy drugs that can be expanded for more indications.
    Lets stay from VRX style and model as far as possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • med_investor by med_investor Oct 26, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Generally speaking, the adoption of the poison pill is not very popular among the share-holders, because the effects after the pill adoption will usually result in the unwanted financial obligations imposed upon shareholders, such as dilutions of a shareholder's equity holdings, or loss of the shareholder's voting rights.
    On the other hand, the implementation of poison pills will help managers secure their jobs, increase manager's compensation and impunity (Jensen and Meckling, 1976), therefore managers usually find the poison pill more favorable and regard it as the last resort while facing an unwanted takeover bid.

  • med_investor med_investor Oct 23, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    In the long run and if HZNP executes its plan, I see a mirror of SLXP. SLXP started at $5 and eventually was sold around $170. Hopefully, HZNP puts more money in R&D and limits VRX business style. Large companies like GILD has only 7k employs while MRK 70k but GILD earns more dollars. The reason is that GILD also depends on acquisition but still keeps small R&D. In this field, R&D is very complex and it not like tech companies to hire engineers and quickly train them for different technologies. In the medical field, scientists become expert in one branch which takes years and decades and hard to switch them to other branches. That is why large R&D is a way of the past. Acquiring a small company with its R&D is the way to go.
    That is why DEPO acquisition will not add that much value in the long run and HZNP has choice to go after other options. HZNP should look at CELG, GILD styles but not VRX.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • We all knew that price cut was due to meaningless noises, herd mentality and misinformed people who were piling up on the stock and probably shorted to think that saga will continue.
    The past two days of high volume created the best opportunity for some funds and investors to accumulate cheap shares on expenses of some shareholders who panicked and sold.
    The same way that energy is not destroyed but transformed in different forms, HZNP value could not be destroyed by misinformation and noises even though temporarily looked like. The PPS will recover to its true value eventually.
    In addition, In HZNP yesterday's PR, I noticed this sentence
    •Horizon will report its third quarter earnings results on November 6, 2015.
    This sentence was not related to origin subject of the PR but it was very meaningful for me. I read the meaning between the lines and reminded me of what HZNP will prove to its shareholders on Nov 6.
    That will be a happy day and that will be a day that will put end to most of these nonsense noises.

  • med_investor med_investor Oct 22, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    That is a professional business act. DEPO was not mentioned at all and it was not said anything negative about DEPO or any other organization or person. They know that most shareholders may own both stocks.
    Basically, HZNP showed a high class here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • med_investor by med_investor Oct 22, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    Defending HZNP pricing, the PR does not mentions or even hint DEPO at all.
    Compare it to DEPO PR which was timed for this morning and pointed at HZNP to hurt it.
    Seems HZNP management have a high class and they are acting very professionally.

  • med_investor med_investor Oct 22, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    I think DEPO board/management has decided to bring HZNP stock down even if affects DEPO too.
    1- In mid September before Hillary and others, DEPO released an PR that went after HZNP drug pricing.
    2- Possible that HZNP ended up in Hillary tweet thru DEPO hints and help.
    3- After HZNP price went below DEPO, the company issued another PR in this regard.
    4- As today when the whole sector was under attack, DEPO put HZNP on stage with another PR.

    So far, DEPO board/management have played with negative campaign to hurt HZNP and also DEPO to avoid any deal. If DEPO publically is acting this way then it probably doing more damages behind the closed doors to affect HZNP PPS. Hidden actions may be sharing some business secrets with hedge funds and short sellers in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Insurance companies

    by russianmule2000 Oct 22, 2015 2:15 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 22, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    So you are going to copy and paste the same stuff given to you.
    One thing you did not understand is that HZNP uses its PME but not PBM.

  • Reply to

    re trading small drug companies

    by aprvutg Oct 22, 2015 4:03 PM
    med_investor med_investor Oct 22, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    DEPO board/management acted very unprofessionally today intentionally to hurt HZNP shareholders and the company in general.
    It has been timed and very opportunistic act. This isn't ethical to refer to some unproven subjects and opinion and publish them as facts in a PR.

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