My only expectation is up. I'd be plenty happy with a double over the next two years, and I think there's a great opportunity to do better than that with the rate at which the company is growing presently. I believe a sale along the lines of what AUT just achieved (roughly 3 times current SEA market cap) is possible for Sundance within two years. I'd be even more excited if the company decided to grow beyond that independently.
Should be a fun ride at any rate, and like Yogi I expect a far better return than your average bear.
Ha, I did finally get a very modest amount at .03 a couple days ago, so probably was mine. All filled up now unless we're going to get an opportunity at below .02 as well...
I like those numbers you mention! Cheers and GL, Meh
Another nudge upward from the Aussies tonight. Should be very good for the IPO if this holds for a while. Company has already commenced the offering.
I think so, tro--like what I'm reading these days and feel hopeful that East's experience can bring some nice well results sometime this summer or fall. I won't dare to hope for a Sundance growth trajectory (Niobrara after all is not exactly the Bakken), but I do remember the days when Sundance depended on others to drill its wells. I think a moderately successful initial program led by East could fetch a double or so from current levels. We shall see. Good luck to you as well!
Aussie Eagle Ford producer AUT just got bought out for a 50% premium by Baytex. The $2.4B buyout values AUT's 22K-acre Eagle Ford crown jewel at about $1.65B.
Anybody wonder where AUT investors might turn to look for the next big Aussie success in the Eagle Ford? I have a guess.
Sundance only has 8.1K net acres in the Eagle Ford right now, but the AUT deal values that acreage at better than $600M. Take away $100M if you want to assume AUT's acreage is in a sweeter spot, but even so, Sundance's Eagle Ford holding alone (leaving totally aside the 44K net Miss/Woodford acres) would still exceed its present US market cap in value by $100M.
Of course, AUT produces over 24K boepd, but Sundance is currently on pace to match that within about two and a half years (not counting the step up in pace once it gets the two new rigs going). Plus AUT has $744M in debt (which Baytex is buying) and Sundance has $30M.
Good luck to you, but I think your fear is irrational and unnecessary on all counts. I recommend reading the quarterlies and corporate presentations more carefully.
Hilarious! As if assuming a routine procedure that management does not control will go as it usually does in these cases were cheerleading. Please.
Anyway, I have no problem with cheering for Sundance management--they've doubled the money I invested in the company.
Thanks, pfighter, good to know. If this matches the other experiences I've had with OTC stocks listing on the NASDAQ, it won't even be necessary to ask the broker.
Battle Mtn 3D done, analysis 1H 2014, drilling 3 wells 2H 2014 (free carried); nearby results from other companies look good; acquiring more leases
Focus Ranch looking for partner, still working on access
GoM decent royalty stream; company expects ramp up soon; looking to make a deal for two more oil blocks
waited this long, so I'll wait some more...(stubborn mule that I am)...
Makes mine look pretty conservative, right? Sharejon pointed out some problems with the analysis (price of oil), but the basic thesis (up we go) is right on, I believe. G'night sir!
I suppose this could go on forever. I gave my layman's projections and am satisfied that the company has a clear path to doubling its boepd and more in short order, and I am confident the share price will rise to reflect that as it happens. I leave it to the CFO to bother about every last quibble that might concern you. I am content to let my posts in this thread stand without further comment.
You are not reading what I wrote accurately. Anyone who reads my posts carefully can see that I subtracted plenty based on the company's planned 1Q 2014 expenditures (which I extrapolated over the year and augmented with a projected increase in expenses based on the two new rigs).
But you are not interested in a fair reading of what I wrote. No problem. You go your way, I'll go mine.
Obviously $410M comes from the company's projection in the latest presentation (not the quarterly). Yes, $33M untapped from the existing credit facility is included in that. The company does not say the $410M is for the year, it says that is the cash it expects to have at its disposal after the IPO (which I am assuming will take place during 1H 2014).
The extra $110M to reach $520M comes from my projection for oil and gas sales in 2H 2014 (when the company should have six rigs going), plus the possible sale of the Goliath prospect (only figuring maybe $10M for that). I am assuming that the company includes 1H 2014 oil and gas sales in the $410M projection, but not 2H 2014 sales. Obviously there is no way to know for sure, but it's a reasonable assumption.
I never said doubling boepd automatically results in positive cash flow. I said the company will have plenty of cash at its disposal through the combination of revenue, borrowing, IPO issue, and existing cash to easily fund its planned expenditures in 2014. By the end of 2014, at the present pace (which will accelerate with more rigs soon), the company will have more than doubled its boepd. I never said that guarantees positive cash flow. I said the company will have the money it needs to carry out its plan for 2014, and that plan will result in more than doubling the present boepd.
As for the land grab, if you look at the recent releases, they are not allocating a large amount of money to a land grab. The vast majority of the war chest goes to production. This company knows how to make land grabs on the cheap--pretty much has been its bread and butter. Witness the recent $6M payout to get 10K net acres in the Miss/Woodford.
Anyway, you have your projections. I think mine are closer to what the reality will be in 2014. Now we get to find out.