Institutions already own 54% of Anavex as of the S-1 released this year. Of course, we would all like to see institutions buy in more like those named by ranger43a, but it's a good start.
3-71 definitely sounds like the potential blockbuster, with 2-73 (or rather 2-73 plus Aricept) a very worthy set-up. I expect a nice partnership on 2-73 will allow AVXL to keep 3-71 to itself.
See hotcopper. Company now has 33K Eagle Ford net acres as previously reported (14K McMullen and 19K Dimmit). Managed 22M EBITDAX despite the downturn in oil price and projects funding the rest of 2015 capex through operating cashflow. New borrowing base goes into effect during Q2.
I think the discovery of Anavex PLUS in 2012 was one major factor in the delay. The other I believe was raising money and planning an effective P2 trial design and location.
I don't necessarily expect Sept--agree that interim data or anecdotal remarks could come before then
That is setting a very low bar for "good efficacy results." Preclinicals suggest Anavex PLUS should do much better than "good" in that case, but the proof will be in the pudding of course.
No mention of Ph1 efficacy because the trial was in healthy volunteers only
80% improvement for Anavex PLUS over donepezil alone in preclinical study may not be incredible, but it is promising. Anavex 2-73 is not the home run (that's 3-71), but it doesn't need to be. If it just enhances the effect of donepezil that will trigger a partnership that will put many multiples on the pre-Ph2 MC and speed the progress of 3-71.
If the warrants had already been struck, the market cap right now would be $62M, still dirt cheap. Even fully diluted this is a ridiculous bargain.
When I think about it I have to sit down. Every day I argue with myself whether or not to sell any shares in the run-up to ph2 data release. Hopefully the company will just announce positive interim data some random day during the next couple months and take the decision out of my hands. Then I can just hold until Anavex = Pfizer.
and even fully diluted it still would have just a 47M market cap. So if Anavex ever reaches a 4.7B market cap (not far-fetched at all if the science works on humans for either Alzheimer's or epilepsy), you make 100X your investment from here. If it runs up to 470M in the next few months anticipating P2 results, a mere 10X.
That about covers it--maybe an announcement that enrollment has completed for the phase 2a trial. Maybe a trial participant will start blogging about how much 2-73 is helping. That would be pretty nice. I don't expect an epilepsy or 3-71 trial to begin until 2016.
Exactly. Negative data would cause a big move south, but it is hardly this company's only shot on goal, and I believe 3-71 is an even greater potential blockbuster than 2-73.
still preclinical, have to do manufacturing and toxicology studies before entering phase I. No idea how long that will take, but I'll venture a wild guess at a 2016 initiation of phase I trial.
My favorite Chaucer line, cool. Gotta read the whole Temple of Mars passage to get the full effect.
Phase 1 was in healthy volunteers, so that's why no efficacy data. Human data is not the only basis for optimism, just the best. Preclinical studies still give plenty of legit reason for optimism, especially the synergy with donepezil, though obviously caution is in order and nothing is guaranteed.
Most of those 245 ALZ drugs have targeted AB plaques. 2-73 targets Sigma-1 Receptor. I think that renders the previous ALZ trials much less relevant than most believe.
Yeah I think Fisher came in as the replacement for Vamvakides, as the new mad scientist behind the company's compounds: 2-73 was Vamvakides' baby, and 3-71 is Fisher's