Institutions already own 54% of Anavex as of the S-1 released this year. Of course, we would all like to see institutions buy in more like those named by ranger43a, but it's a good start.
3-71 definitely sounds like the potential blockbuster, with 2-73 (or rather 2-73 plus Aricept) a very worthy set-up. I expect a nice partnership on 2-73 will allow AVXL to keep 3-71 to itself.
See hotcopper. Company now has 33K Eagle Ford net acres as previously reported (14K McMullen and 19K Dimmit). Managed 22M EBITDAX despite the downturn in oil price and projects funding the rest of 2015 capex through operating cashflow. New borrowing base goes into effect during Q2.
I think the discovery of Anavex PLUS in 2012 was one major factor in the delay. The other I believe was raising money and planning an effective P2 trial design and location.
Right, thanks, Grupo Acerero del Norte was the vehicle by which Alonso Ancira bought AHMSA in 1991. The magazine Vanguardia estimated back in 2006 that his personal fortune exceeded $700M. Not Carlos Slim by any means, but no slouch, either. Takes ownership of a big-time company to amass personal wealth of that magnitude.
No mention of Ph1 efficacy because the trial was in healthy volunteers only
80% improvement for Anavex PLUS over donepezil alone in preclinical study may not be incredible, but it is promising. Anavex 2-73 is not the home run (that's 3-71), but it doesn't need to be. If it just enhances the effect of donepezil that will trigger a partnership that will put many multiples on the pre-Ph2 MC and speed the progress of 3-71.
And I don't think a large Mexican company like AHMSA/Minera del Norte, which employs 19,000 people and whose CEO enjoys a personal friendship with the president of Mexico, would have agreed to this deal unless its management felt very confident indeed that all necessary approvals would be obtained.
No potential buyer cares about Entek's investor relations or how the company operates. Potential buyers care whether or not they can make money off Entek's acreage. I'm pretty sure multi-billionaire Terry Pegula did not care how often Entek's stock trades or think its acreage was too small when he bought into the Battle Mountain AMI. As for low o&g prices, Entek is far from alone in dealing with those and unlike many others, Entek has cash and no debt and will be fine waiting until prices become economic again.
And now up to almost 39K acres in the Eagle Ford as of the end of 1Q 2015. So Sundance added about 12K net acres the last three months. That is where the company is really going to make hay with this downturn -- buying distressed leases out from under its weaker neighbors.
If the warrants had already been struck, the market cap right now would be $62M, still dirt cheap. Even fully diluted this is a ridiculous bargain.
When I think about it I have to sit down. Every day I argue with myself whether or not to sell any shares in the run-up to ph2 data release. Hopefully the company will just announce positive interim data some random day during the next couple months and take the decision out of my hands. Then I can just hold until Anavex = Pfizer.
and even fully diluted it still would have just a 47M market cap. So if Anavex ever reaches a 4.7B market cap (not far-fetched at all if the science works on humans for either Alzheimer's or epilepsy), you make 100X your investment from here. If it runs up to 470M in the next few months anticipating P2 results, a mere 10X.
That about covers it--maybe an announcement that enrollment has completed for the phase 2a trial. Maybe a trial participant will start blogging about how much 2-73 is helping. That would be pretty nice. I don't expect an epilepsy or 3-71 trial to begin until 2016.
Excellent post, thanks! Rare to find anything of substance on this board. The letter is a great reminder both of why I invested in the first place and the great progress made by the company since that time.
Presentation is excellent, agreed. Just a matter of time before the market catches up to how well positioned Sundance is to succeed, even in a low-price environment. When higher prices return, in two months or two years or whenever, then things will really get fun.