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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

meifud 13497 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Dec 1, 2008
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  • "The obligations of the Company under the Loan Facility are guaranteed by the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, MannKind LLC, and are secured by a first priority security interest in certain insulin inventory located in the United States and any contractual rights and obligations pursuant to which the Company purchases or has purchased such insulin, and a second priority security interest in the Company’s assets that secure the Company’s obligations under the July 1, 2013 facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. In addition, the Company has agreed to grant to the noteholder, as additional security for the obligations under the Loan Facility, a first priority mortgage on the Company’s facility in Valencia, California, by December 22, 2014."

    btw, the highest estimated mnkd revenues for all of 2015 for any analyst is less than $225 million -- and that includes milestones
    oh yes, the addressable market for afrezza is not even close to being the largest in medicine -- you must be thinking that any and every diabetic can just throw away their needles and start inhaling

  • you best read the agreement
    sanofi takes the whole afrezza show in the event mannkind goes into default

    hopefully, you are aware that essentially all of that $150 million milestone has been consumed by current liabilities -- mannkind's finances are very fragile

    which is why the supplier refused to honor mannkind's credit for raw material until sanofi agreed to float mannkind a $175 million line of credit at 8.5%

    you need to start reading those SEC filings

  • " and buying as much as you could regardless of the market cap"
    you have just made my point!
    you assume that no matter what the market cap was, it should have gone up
    what if the market cap had been $100 billion -- should it still have gone up, or would you conclude that it was already way ahead of itself?
    bingo -- the market cap was already way up from two years ago, and was way ahead of itself, especially now that we see the limited approval, the adding burdens for marketing, the meager sales forecasts, and the hat-in-hand deal

  • pompom pumpers can jump to such conclusions

    they should be more concerned about sales being strong enough for the milestones to keep flowing because, if they don't, mannkind go very well default on its obligations which would give sanofi the rights to the afrezza patents along with all finished product and raw materials -- that's what the agreement specifies

  • however, the approval excluded many diabetics from afrezza, made it clear it was NOT to be used as a primary source of insulin by anyone, placed pulmonary monitoring requirements on doctors, and required additional safety studies even larger than the trials

    then the disappointing deal was announced whereby mannkind provides afrezza at cost, sanofi gets to charge all of its costs (all inclusive) against sales, and then mannkind only gets 35% of net profits

    also, analysts estimates are but a fraction of what expectations were two years ago

    and, finally, there are many more shares outstanding than two years ago

    all of which means the market cap is way too high, and the stock is overbought and overpriced

  • someone or group is propping it up
    the stock is up 100% from two years ago when expectations were so much higher and the numbers of shares was so much lower
    a lot of folks seem to think that the price of a stock MUST go up when the FDA approves a drug, but it all depends on the market cap of the stock at the time of approval and the nature of the approval
    mnkd was already more than fully priced for approval so the stock had to be soft, and then the disappointing deal was announced -- so the stock was just sitting too, too, high

  • Reply to

    what part of "aisle be bock" did you not understand?

    by meifud Oct 20, 2014 3:32 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    two years ago was a time of great expectations, and the stock rose to new heights as even those expectations grew
    now we have to measure the stock price against reality
    -- there are many, many more shares outstanding today
    -- we now know that afrezza has a much more limited market than most expected
    -- on top of analysts' consensus for low sales, mannkind's given away 65% of net profits

  • Reply to

    what part of "aisle be bock" did you not understand?

    by meifud Oct 20, 2014 3:32 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    two years ago was a time of great expectations, and the stock rose to the heights as even those expectations grew
    now we have measure the stock price against reality
    -- there are many, many more shares outstanding today
    -- we now know that afrezza has a much more limited market than most expected
    -- on top of analysts' consensus for low sales, mannkind's given away 65% of net profits

  • Reply to

    What is happening???

    by guidobangalini Oct 10, 2014 2:31 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    yes, everything has happened but has it happened as you thought it would back in 2004?

    for one thing, there are many, many more shares outstanding today
    in fact, the market cap of mnkd has actually gone UP while your shares have dropped 70%
    that's what dilution does -- the company is worth more even though your shares are not

    and, now we know that afrezza has a much more limited market than most expected 10 years ago

    finally, on top of the analysts' consensus for lower sales we now know that mannkind has given away 65% of the net profits

    all in all, i think the people that have been playing with you are those who participated in driving the stock up so high when you bought it 10 years ago, and those who started artificially driving it back up again two years ago when it had finally returned to a reasonable price range

  • we told you some shorts were buying to close their positions
    we told you that shorts were going to let in run a little so they could snare some new positions
    we told you that you would get all excited thinking the rise was the real thing, but it was a false move
    we told you very, very clearly on behalf of mister short -- aisle be bock
    we told you all these things, and what did you do -- got suckered in, again

    folks, you are going to just keep getting whacked and disappointed and then whacked again until you finally come to grips with the FACT that mnkd is up over 100% from two years ago, and that was when expectations were much higher and there were fewer shares outstanding
    for those reasons -- the current market cap is unsustainable

  • Reply to

    EMBEDA approved - Pfizer opening the way for us !

    by dotcom655 Oct 20, 2014 8:47 AM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    how does pfizer getting an unnecessary second approval for embeda (pfizer had voluntarily pulled it for shelf stability reasons) or getting an abuse resistant label (the third such label approved by the FDA) in any way help Elite?

    granted, Elite's approach should be better but common senses would suggest that have any competing product in the abuse resistant market would NOT be helpful, and Elite does not need anyone to "open the way for us" given that the FDA has been holding the door wide and waving anyone through who can deliver some abuse resistance for these pain drugs

  • Reply to

    EMBEDA approved - Pfizer opening the way for us !

    by dotcom655 Oct 20, 2014 8:47 AM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    right down to the last line, and all of it w/o quotation marks or citing the source (until a follow up post)
    but your title was original and begs the question -- how does pfizer getting an unnecessary second approval for embeda (after it had voluntarily pulled it for shelf stability reasons) or getting an abuse resistant label (the third such label approved by the FDA) in any way help Elite?

  • Reply to

    Efficacy or no efficacy

    by base.jumper55 Oct 20, 2014 1:01 AM
    meifud meifud Oct 20, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    they already did the independent bio-equivalency study
    the results showed patients actually preferred Elite's formulation over the original drug which means they felt they were getting even better pain relief -- bizarre but true

    and the abuse studies were done by one of only two licensed to do those type studies in all of North America, so unless those findings were inconclusive there is no reason for the FDA to require them to be redone
    since Camargo is a near perfect record with whatever it clears to be submitted to the FDA, one would have to think those abuse studies will be acceptable to the FDA

  • Reply to

    GREAT NEWS OUT!!!!! EMBEDA APPROVED!!!!!!!

    by ama0123456789 Oct 17, 2014 6:00 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 19, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    how high do YOU think Elite goes

    i believe Hakim is on his way to approval, but don't see why pfizer getting approval for embeda should be a mover on monday for Elite

    for one thing, the FDA has said they want these kinds of drugs and this is the third abuse resistant/deterrent label the FDA has approved, so that embeda's approval is not earthshaking on that score

    and the FDA had already approved embeda before -- it was voluntarily pulled by pfizer for shelf stability problems. adding an abuse label to it at this point was a formality because pfizer could have marketed the stuff either way, though they clearly wanted to be able to show the world an abuse resistant label

  • meifud meifud Oct 18, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    what is supposed to explode or be explosive
    the FDA may have said some sort of additional study is necessary but would that be shocking
    other than that, Hakim will confirm that the first submission will be in December
    and, hopefully, the FDA gives it priority
    so, what are expecting to explode or be explosive

  • Reply to

    any volume and we're gonna' fly,

    by hopeful200 Oct 17, 2014 2:17 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 18, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    downtab heard about vtsi from me and he will confirm that

    vtsi has explosive potential if the momo crowd shows up that has been chasing body camera stocks -- and it could even be triggered next week by a write-up from someone in the media that attended that Los Angeles get together last week

    another one to grab now is eltp. has nothing to do with police equipment but they are on their way to being a major factor in the pain market with their abuse resistant opioids that are exactly what FDA wants. stock is back under .30 after a premature rise earlier year but could be an easy triple in six months, with more after that for those who like long term

  • Reply to

    GREAT NEWS OUT!!!!! EMBEDA APPROVED!!!!!!!

    by ama0123456789 Oct 17, 2014 6:00 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 17, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    but this is the third abuse resistant/deterrent label the FDA has approved

    i'm with the crowd that believes Hakim is on his way to approval, but still don't see why pfizer getting approval for embeda should be a mover on monday for Elite

    hopefully, you are aware the FDA approved embeda before, and that it was voluntarily pulled by pfizer for shelf stability problems. frankly, adding an abuse label to it at this point seemed more a formality because they could have marketed the stuff either way

  • Reply to

    GREAT NEWS OUT!!!!! EMBEDA APPROVED!!!!!!!

    by ama0123456789 Oct 17, 2014 6:00 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 17, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    "Pfizer has decided to remove its non-abuse deterrent morphine formulation, AVINZA® (morphine sulfate) extended-release capsules CII from the U.S. market and notified the FDA earlier this year of the intent to discontinue manufacturing of the product."

    thought it was the FDA's stated intent to ban other formulations once abuse resistant formulations were available. suspect pfizer was volunteering to do so in order to grease the skids for embeda

    just imagine what it would mean to elite if the FDA were to ban other oxy formulations once the two-bead were approved

  • Reply to

    GREAT NEWS OUT!!!!! EMBEDA APPROVED!!!!!!!

    by ama0123456789 Oct 17, 2014 6:00 PM
    meifud meifud Oct 17, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    why should pfizer getting embeda approved make Elite go up?

    for those who want to read the FDA version of the release, smoogle this...

    FDA News Release
    FDA approves labeling with abuse-deterrent features for third extended-release opioid analgesic
    For Immediate Release
    October 17, 2014

  • meifud meifud Oct 17, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    not sure why you are ridiculing Al Mann's own numbers but i absolutely agree that sales could reach $.67 per share but don't see any reason why the stock should sell at 30 times sales

    since, for a variety of reasons, mannkind will not likely even be reporting any profits at all for quite a while -- again, Al Mann's own words -- perhaps even a price to sales ratio of four would be considered generous

    since you're so adept at using numbers, i'll let you calculate the stock price with a p/s of 4

JCP
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