with Linda, Toucan, and Cognate holding so much more of the float, Northwest is not so unlike PBYI in terms of percentage held by retail investors and shorts
this stock really has explosive potential
" the only problem is that with lack of volume you give away a lot getting out"
that is true if your plan is to buy the calls and then sell them instead of exercising them at some point to get the stock
but if you plan to exercise, the calls give you a lot of leverage such that you can effectively have a lot more shares benefiting from the rise, and that easily covers the premium
this is from June 10th...
"Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.
One such stock that you may want to consider dropping is Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI), which has witnessed a significant price decline in the past four weeks, and it has seen negative earnings estimate revisions for the current quarter and the current year. A Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) further confirms weakness in PBYI."
don't know about the technology but noticed they got positive results from their phase III, and that it was for breast cancer which is a sexy niche for biotech investors. in fact, 91% of the20 million share float was held by institutions according to yahoo. which means the 1.7 million shares held by shorts were in big trouble as soon as those results were announced -- that 100 point gain in after hours is a classic short squeeze...
by the end of this month, all 36 patients in the phase I trial will have received at least three injections
seems reasonable within a week or two after that there will be a press release similar to the one in June that caused such excitement -- provided Linda hasn't become gun shy after the debacle that followed
there are also possible pr's on the L vaccine and/or patients being treated in Germany and/or sudden press coverage (celebrities like Damager in UK) and/or a possible conference call before expiration that could get the stock moving enough to maybe even make a 'short' squeal
given the explosive potential of this stock it seems like a good idea to keep some options around, and it is rather surprising there is not more option activity
when they put a dollar figure on the Direct vaccine next year, it will have to rank #1 on their list
teberb is correct -- every single one of them has to have abuse resistance if they expect to get approval because FDA is requiring it
unfortunately, ipci's "intellipaste" technology sounds much like the gummy approach that has already been tried but big pharma, so you should not be holding your breath that ipci's tiny R&D budget has produced anything better
the one that clearly has a different approach is ELTP, and they are way ahead of rexista in terms of testing and submitting for approval
and much more than 50% off its 52-week high
the stock is NOT up as you say, but DOWN -- as are revenues
this board seems to think the druglettes in ipci's pipette are going to be big money makers, but analysts know better
better to be low on institutional ownership now so they can fuel the rocket when real news hits
stock has done decent the last year what with institutions creeping in and now owning 13% but there are still some big names out there, like Fidelity, that have not been participating
but with Soros coming aboard in the last reporting period, can others be far behind -- particularly those non-index funds who have nevertheless had a Russell index as criterion
suspect the end of June report will show they have picked up the pace
franklin and vanguard are the two biggest holders, and both have been adding at double digits
others have mentioned this but it does not seem to be getting much attention, and it is an enormous endorsement or at least recognition of the 'L' vaccine's importance
go to evaluatepharma world review 2014 and enjoy a wealth of info on the health of pharma while noting that the 'L' vaccine is in deed ranked high amongst the big time R&D projects of the majors
have to suspect that Northwest's Direct vaccine will be even higher on their list for 2015
Northwest does NOT have to announce when they have reached the 88th event
they are ONLY required to announce the ANALYSES of results if and when received
if the Committee has not done the interim analysis after the 88th event OR has chosen not to share it at this time then there is no REQUIRED announcement
FACT -- there WAS an interim analysis done after the 66th event but rather than sharing data the Committee simply informed Northwest the trials should continue
FACT -- there WILL be, and maybe already has been, an interim analysis after the 88th event but if the Committee chooses not to provide date to Northwest there is nothing to announce unless Northwest wants to let everybody know that the 88th event has been reached -- but why would they after all the flak surrounding the way the 66th event was handled
it is entirely possible the 88th event has passed, and the 110th will occur by end of September
whizzer, where did you get such a strange idea
report included full three months AND ipci still had exclusivity for all three months
with the exclusive period ending in May, the next report will REALLY be bad
but that is par(!) for the generic druglettes in their pipeline -- so get used to it
wondrous estimates that have already proven to be wildly off
you know, if par can't move the stuff, what makes odidi think a fledgling salesforce can
as others have noted, this site also said the net present value of Northwest is $5.5 billion
though others are suggesting that is as it stands now, i think that NPV assumes the L vaccine will be approved otherwise they would not be projecting sales for 2020
based on the risks involved in approval it still seems that the current market cap should be in the area of $1 bilion with an expectation that it could quickly move up to $5.5 billion upon L approval
if the Direct vaccine is approved it will be 'Katie bar the door' and well before then, if the L gets approved, the optimism over the Direct is going to start rising like a tsunami coming ashore...
without getting into whether your decision is right or wrong, what you ARE doing right is reevaluating your position on this company
i say that because NOBODY who invested in ipci before the $100 million shelf did so with the understanding that ipci wanted to manufacture drugs -- the whole premise was for ipci to run them through the FDA and then collect royalties as some other entity manufactured and distributed
what is fascinating now is to watch how other investors were just knee jerk in support of the $100 million shelf even though they didn't even know what the money would be used for -- they were ready to turn everything and anything into a silk purse
thing is, ipci never spoke of becoming a manufacturer, it was never part of the plan, and now every thinking investor should be doing as you have done and realize that the company they bought has FAILED and is now trying to survive by going in a new direction