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Pain Therapeutics Inc. Message Board

meifud 46 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 5:58 PM Member since: Jun 5, 2009
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  • Reply to


    by ardentmarr Jun 24, 2016 3:02 PM
    meifud meifud Jun 24, 2016 5:58 PM Flag

    coll has been a favorite of a poster on this board who some refer to as 'fake gordon' because of the extra "i" added to gordonhoochie -- best ignore any comments from fake gordon

    as for collegium's extampza, they are using the gummy approach and relying on wax and fatty acids as binders which affect absorption rates. that is why they actually recommend sprinkling it on food, and that will likely be of concern to doctors who want to make sure their patients are receiving a correct dose

    there was also initial concern during their trials as to the toxicity of those binders for some folks but, apparently, it was not enough of an issue to stop the FDA from approving

    really don't think brexit is reaching down to affect stocks like coll because their major market by far is right here at home -- it's also where the oxy epidemic is worst and where abuse resistant drugs are most needed. as for options, you have to look at see how many are outstanding and how many traded today versus how many have been trading in recent days

    bottom line is that extampza has some drawbacks and, if doctors have cause to pause, sales are not going to be that good when alternatives are available

  • meifud meifud Jun 22, 2016 11:16 PM Flag

    nobody, but nobody, has Elite's two-bead technology, not pfizer, not teva, not anybody

    Elite ALSO has one-bead technology that is essentially the same as what pfizer is doing and, though Hakim is disappointed they got there first he also appreciates that it would have cost an arm and a leg to go first and Elite can now benefit by what pfizer went through and get Elite's version through FDA cheaper and quicker -- though it obviously will not be worth as much

    but do NOT confuse immediate release SequestOx with all the extended release entries out there. SequestOx will be the first abuse resistant immediate release oxy, the first in the largest segment by far of the oxy market, and it will have established itself well before any competition shows up, yes, there are giants playing in the field of abuse resistance but when it comes to immediate release they are still in the parking lot while Elite is closing out the ninth inning with a 10 run lead

  • meifud meifud Jun 22, 2016 10:55 PM Flag

    if endo pdufa date was later than Elite's but they have already been notified of the AdCom, it stands to reason that Elite would have also already been notified -- and that has not happened

    also, opana is yet another extended release oxy which has been troublesome for FDA because extended release pack a whole lot more oxy. SequestOx is an immediate release which doesn't pose the same level of risk

    and, seems you previously guaranteed that SequestOx would be discussed at the June AdCom. i;m not going to say that makes you a liar but reached just haven't you reached just such a conclusion when Hakim has voiced his opionion on dates for various actions that were not met? accepting your apology in advance...

  • explain how it dropped from $99 million at the end of March 2014 to just $12 million end of March 2016

    and then stop saying Elite has a lot of debt and negatives on its balance sheet

  • meifud meifud Jun 22, 2016 8:24 AM Flag

    there's nothing complicated about the share structure. just read the 10-k and ask whatever questions arise but, if you actually read it, i doubt you will have any problem understanding how many shares are outstanding and authorized

    as for the number of shares -- unimportant! the only thing that matters is market cap and, on that score, Elite's cap is much, much lower than similar companies, and most of those companies have no revenues whatever let alone revenues that are paying for R&D

    and the balance sheet is beautiful. nothing like when Hakim took over. it is now rock solid -- Elite is actually funding itself, including R&D, for the first time in its history. don't worry about the debt because it is almost entirely contained in the warrants and will disappear whenever they are exercised or bought back

    finally, why are you still talking 1-2 million? have you read the latest report? do you not realize Elite had $5.2 million in revs the last quarter? that's for just one quarter, monkey, not a year, just one quarter. and we you start applying triple digit growth to that kind of number and then start factoring in some SequestOx sales in 2017, got yourself quadruple digit revenue growth!

  • meifud meifud Jun 21, 2016 10:28 PM Flag

    what are you talking about? Elite has virtually NO debt. that entry on the balance sheet includes the value of warrants that have been issued. when the stock goes up, long term debt and stockholders' deficit also go up. and when the stock goes down, so does the debt and deficit

    and if you don't want to accept that reality, then i will use your misinterpretation and ask you, isn't it terrific that Elite had $99 million in long term debt as of 3/31/14 and in just two years has paid in down to only $12 million?

    i mean, wow, according to your shrewd reading of financial statements, Elite has paid off $87 million in debt in just two years! thanks, monkeybreath, for bringing that to our attention

  • with generic revenues growing so fast, that outcome might become the norm

  • Reply to

    a total POS stock

    by dsl_rule_the_world Jun 21, 2016 10:27 AM
    meifud meifud Jun 21, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    fundamental problem is that the market cap reflects expectations that they have mass market products when, in fact, there are much cheaper alternatives available for most of that market

    it's not enough to have a good product, it also has to be a necessary product, and that is simply not the case with cers -- and that is why the current price at 18 times sales is not sustainable

  • that includes the money from barda which also requires cers to spend $15 million

    just look at the estimates for the rest of 2016 and through 2017

    there are no profits in sight, and current market cap(18 times sales and seven times book value) has already more than factored in all the agreements and catalysts and pending approvals

  • up 300 percent since then and expect there is much, much, much more to be made

  • extremely high expectations are reflected in current lofty market cap

    no other justification for the stock price being super high at this point

    does not seem to be room to go up from here, only down

  • Reply to


    by apramnau Jun 17, 2016 10:08 AM
    meifud meifud Jun 17, 2016 10:46 AM Flag

    well, it isn't an exciting, ground-breaking, breast or liver cancer treatment. in fact, anything involving opioids is viewed rather darkly these days, sort of a necessary evil until some non-addictive approach to break-through pain relief becomes available

    and, keep in mind that even the FDA said they had never seen anything like Elite's approach, so there must be a lot of experienced, won't-be-fooled-again skeptics out there, especially after seeing recent failures AND seeing lousy sales of other abuse resistant drugs. of course, those drugs had/have serious shortcomings but most investors tend to paint whole sectors with a broad brush, and Elite is in a very out of favor sector

    but possibly the biggest factors are these:
    - it's a bulletin board penny stock
    - there were approximately 136 shareholders as of June 7th

    in other words, Elite is very much under the radar and might well remain so until perhaps the second qtr of Sequest sales, that is why, if you believe in Hakim, this is an excellent time to buy as much ELTP as you can, most of which should be held at least until the next abuse resistant drug is approved and it is evident to all that Elite's entire pipeline is on its way to approval

  • from the 10-k...
    "Elite will receive a license fee computed as a percentage (50%) of net sales of the Products a defined in the Agreement and is entitled to multi million dollar minimum annual license fees. Elite will manufacture the product for sale by Epic on a cost plus basis"

  • meifud meifud Jun 15, 2016 6:05 PM Flag

    did much, much better than even i expected

    and, the balance sheet that was in tatters when Hakim arrived has become a thing of beauty

  • so it was written, so it has happened and so it will happen

  • cers has had mediocre to horrible results quarter after quarter after year after year with products that have been available for a long time in what were supposed to be very large markets

    whether that is fault product or management can be debated, but the continuing failure of cers is fact, and that is failure over an extended period of time

    based on what has actually happened, based on their own track record -- there is no basis for projecting a rosy future or for claiming new products and yet more under-performing agreements and approvals will turn things around

  • meifud meifud Jun 12, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    The danger is primarily with extended release formulations that contain a larger amount of oxy. a user who snorts or injects an abuse resistant extended release will be frustrated because the naltrexone will block the high and they might resort to using additional capsules, the naltrexone will keep blocking the high no matter how many they take but their body will still react to the overdose and they could experience a seizure during withdrawal -- but that would be due to oxy exposure, not naltrexone exposure

    of course, the same could happen with an immediate release formulation but the user would have to take a whole lot more capsules because they contain a lot less oxy, and it is expensive and hard to get that many capsules -- which is why addicts will simply seek heroin

    the FDA is definitely concerned about overdoses of all kinds (the increased availability of narcan is evidence of that) and they don't want folks switching to heroin but we have an oxy epidemic that has to be addressed, and the FDA is doing what it can within its authority

  • company has high costs and has not achieved market penetration with any of its product, so analysts are just looking at the facts -- the company hasn't lived up to past expectations and there is no reason to believe the highly touted future will be any different

  • CERS needs a whole lot of sales just to justify its current price, and based on market penetration of existing product there is no reason to believe new product can deliver

    then there is the extremely high book value, flat sales, and increasing loses...

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