chan will announce they are almost done or done recruiting participants for the vienna study which they expect to complete in december and have results ready in february
he will also announce they are in the negotiating stage for two or three more studies based on preliminary results in december from vienna, and hope to have those complete by june
he might also announce they expect biocon to do sizable stocking in the current quarter
filter sales need to be at least $300k to prevent a visit back to the .08's
good news on Air Force pilot study as to size and timetable could create excitement, as would non-biocon filter sales over $800k
and, the sleeper to this cc would be news on funding -- including that ctso just doesn't need it at this time though they are anticipating the need for major expansion by mid to late 2014
that will be the high point in assets for as far as the eye can see, so that is when debt holders and creditors will start exercising their rights under the covenants that JCP has violated
nevertheless, there are a bunch of folks on this board still expecting sales to drive the stock price this quarter
this is somewhat of a surprise to say the least, because embeda has not been subjected to abuse resistant studies as are now required by FDA guidelines and because there is real danger to anyone who nevertheless tries to inject the drug since it would release a very high level of morphine all at once. the presence of naltrexone at that point would be irrelevant as it does not neutralize the morphine but merely mitigates the immediate pain relief (or illegal high) the abuser is seeking
the FDA must have felt compelled honor the former criteria and abide by their previous approval because, after all, pfizer had resolved the only issue, that being stability
nevertheless, shareholders should not be overly concerned. if elite's two-bead approach actually works it will become the default drug for pain relief. unfortunately, the continuing concern remains finding funding for phase III trials and completing abuse resistant studies. if elite wants to self-fund then hakim has to stop farming out production and profits. if the plan is to find a partner then it seems elite should proceed on its own with the abuse resistant studies first as they should be cheaper, and success there may be what it takes to attract a partner with deep pockets
"Fitch said Wednesday that it now expects J.C. Penney to burn through $2.8 billion to $3 billion in cash in 2013, which is $1 billion more than its May forecast. "
and anybody walking through one of their stores has to wonder where the money is going -- certainly not decor or merchandise
i stand corrected after verifying that jcp lost $745 million in the holiday quarter last year
it seems every day they stay in business the more they lose and the fewer crumbs there will be for the bk court to divide up
heirball, i had forgotten to mention the rat delays which were very significant, and help show that there has been a pattern of poor execution by darren for a long time
regardless, you can always be relied upon to ignore substance while opting for some puerile personal attack or other
btw, that king fellow seems to have done very well in knowing when to buy and sell -- something you have been woefully missing. my gosh, many an old timer must surely remember you blindly following hopeful and buying when mcz was north of two bucks a share
nevertheless, microcapped and telecomgrunt will soon be misinterpreting all the rankings for another xmas and projecting record sales for each of mcz's lines
and heirball will claim my coming here to post guarantees mcz is going up
and st. hopeful will once again put me on ignore for using "xmas"
but the consensus from outside this board is that mojo is indeed overpriced and not sufficiently unique
ps - warhead never made up the sales that it lost by not being available on time
this analysis really, really lays it out...
"J.C. Penney Still Has Further To Fall - $7 Per Share Should Be A Ceiling, Not A Floor"
and THAT is after rounding up, and after applying the MOST optimistic scenario, i.e., even better than the scenarios held by this board's most ardent pompom pumpers
Across the mall, the effects of Americans' hesitance are being felt. Back-to-school shoppers held off for sales, pushing growth down during what is usually a very strong season. With soft sales working so hard against companies, only a few have managed to buck the trend.
Time is running out
J.C. Penney raising cash to such a dilutive degree is a huge red flag. This seems to be a last-gasp effort to finance a turnaround that has yet to materialize. J.C. Penney is entering the absolutely critical holiday shopping season. This may very well be the last opportunity for J.C. Penney to get shoppers back in its stores and resuscitate itself. Should the company whiff on the holiday shopping season, as it already did for the back-to-school season, then the company may find itself out of options.
The company is burning cash to such an alarming extent that further capital raises will be extremely difficult if the company can't even prove it can succeed in what are basically gimme-shopping seasons for clothing retailers. The doors of the capital markets are quickly closing. I don't see how J.C. Penney would be able to access the bond markets again, unless its debt offerings were highly secured (by, say, the company's real estate assets). But, the terms would most likely make such an arrangement unfeasible. Consider that earlier this year, Standard and Poor's downgraded J.C. Penney's credit rating to CCC+. To be clear, this is now well into junk territory.
As a result, there's simply no need for investors to gamble on J.C. Penney, as the company's very existence as a going concern should now be called into question.
actually it was over two bucks the first week of May 2011. remember it well because we sold that first week of March at a buck ninety-eight after just buying back in the first week of February at a buck ten after having sold all our shares from the prior June the first week of January for a buck twenty-eight. it was whirlwind trading that we really, really don't usually do.
but, as to what you said, "every time hopes rise on expectation of it finnaly turning the corner, some bad news comes out at at qtrly conference call" well, it could not have been more prescient
maybe next time when you feel it is up and about to blow, you should sell about half your shares, then if it takes a big hit after earnings you can do some doubling down if you want to stay, and if it does go up then you haven't fully lost out
thing is, this puppy looks bleak for at least 6-12 months -- maybe the worst it has looked in at least seven years -- and beyond that it is a murky gamble at best
the time to sell is when there is something better to own. it has nothing to do with getting money back on this or anything else. if you really think this is THE best place for money right now, then stay. but if there is a better place or use for your cash, and you pass it up, it just makes sitting here even worse
folks, this is basically what chan was telling us on the conference call -- that we will get initial results this year which can be used to refine and design the next set of studies. and this was just confirmed by this conclusion from one of the doctors in one of the studies...
"Further studies need to elaborate indication criteria for hemoadsorption"
bottom line: filter is not ready for prime time, there is nothing to market until there are protocols established, and this whole saga is going to drag out for many, many quarters
the downside risk at these prices has always been extremely low
but the question has always been how long folks care to tie up their money
those who have been here since the CE mark and the uneventful roll out would have had more fun watching paint dry
but in spite of the delays in studies and the premature emphasis on sales, we are surely moving closer and closer to commercial success
anyone buying now should feel fortunate they have not had their money tied up quarter after quarter after year after year, and know that ctso is finally measurably closer to the finish line than the starting gate at this time
and, for those who may not have been around mcz that long, if there is no payday loan -- meaning a short term expansion of the credit line just for the xmas season (okay, let's all call it holiday season so as not to offend st. hopeful) -- there is no way, no chance whatever, that mcz is going to have a blockbuster qtr...
and his minions, including that heirball sycophant, were right there with him
he's hyping the balance sheet again -- calling it clean because darren wrote off the goodwill
gee, that reminds us of when darren wrote off the entire $30 million acquisition cost of saitek that he had been carrying as goodwill
up until it was written off, hopeful defended it as a legitimate mark on the balance sheet, while posters like mylkvveed said it was bogus. wow, did mylky ever get beat about for that, with no apologies whatever even after he was proven right
revenues, earnings, cash position, margins, and on and on -- everything down, down, down far in excess of what any poster here was expecting
i mean, none of the lines are doing anything and the competition is getting worse
mcz's balance sheet was neither clean nor strong, and now it has taken an abrupt turn south
look to the future? hey, mcz is rapidly approaching dire straits!
have you noticed how much inventory mcz was stuck with at the end of june, and how low cash and receivables had fallen
mcz was in no position to be building xmas inventory with all that left over stuff on the shelf
so if they were expecting big demand for mojo they would have gone for a short term expansion of their credit line like they did for the rock guitar
mcz hasn't done that, so it isn't going to be a pretty xmas for shareholders
what's your point? they started the study in august and are still recruiting participants according to the update. sounds like the news is that there is no news. except that if they don't everybody recruited soon, they will not be finished in december as planned and the final results will not be announced in february.
but do keep us posted if anything changes...
from just last wednesday...
NEW YORK (AP) -- Fitch Ratings is lowering J.C. Penney's credit ratings because it expects the department store operator will burn through more cash this year than it previously thought.