TLT is down because of uncertainty. Events such as the collapse of the euro, dollar strengthening, and oil crashing may change attitudes towards rate hikes. Sovereign entities have dumped their treasuries ahead of this as well keeping a lid on TLT ahead of the fed despite the sell off in stocks. This is lining up to be a massive short squeeze.
Delation is here. Growth is slowing.(look at y-o-y GDP) Strong dollar is too strong. Wage growth is stagnant. Oil jobs were a big part of the recovery. Oil is tanking. Biotech bubble stocks are the rage/ safe haven. That means the fed will raise rates?! I see Tlt drop and get bought up when people realize assets have been artificialy inflated and there is no real risk free asset class.