Fri, Jul 25, 2014, 12:53 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 3 hrs 7 mins

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. Message Board

memoryxpert 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 9, 2014 2:28 PM Member since: Jan 14, 2010
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    OT: PXLW

    by memoryxpert Jun 18, 2014 1:35 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Jul 9, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    On PXLW - sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. I don't fully agree with today's seeking Alpha article - i.e. don't think they will be in iPad or iPhone6 (the author doesn't say PXWL will be, but suggests it as a possibility).

    I do think the long-term Apple opportunity is real. I also think mobile in 2015 and beyond could be as big as the entire company.

    Still very long IMOS and MU - I bet multiple sell-siders come out tomorrow saying they spoke to Samsung and no new DRAM capacity coming.

    Also, got long BBRY. I don't think they're going away, in which case a lot of upside remains.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oasis Capital

    by johnboywalton56 Jun 24, 2014 10:51 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Jun 24, 2014 8:12 PM Flag

    Well, 15% is owned by SPIL, so that's another big group that's supportive. I am aware of a couple of sizable institutions that bought meaningfully since April 1. And, of course, Caff, Marnis and myself collectively own a big piece :-)
    With STATS-Chippac actively marketing for sale, and the numbers that will be discussed (8x EV/EBITDA), IMOS likely to rally towards $30 in next month or 2 IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert Jun 18, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Pixelworks is mentioned in the prior thread. I'm long. I don't know if they land Apple, but am very confident they would not do engineering work for Apple if they didn't think they stood a reasonable chance of ongoing business (game changer type business).
    As it stands, they probably guide up 2H based on projector wins and with the new video processor chip, if they win ~1% handset market share, their revenue literally doubles.
    Not a stock that is cheap like IMOS or MU were, but ahead of a MASSIVE product cycle where if they get even small share, revs get huge and shares return multiples.
    Interesting to note that CEO (former wall street analyst and banker) recently put in severance provisions for a sale of company. Unlike IMOS where we're always nervous that mgmt won't do the right stuff to maximize value (non-buybacks anyone) this co will be willing sellers at the right price.

    Re: IMOS - positive comments from Yellin, continued bounce in 8150...IMOS ready to go to new high IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Please see my post from about 2 weeks ago with shares ~$20.60.

    Healthy pullback. Management is doing Asian non-deal roadshow next week (with CSFB) in Taiwan and Singapore - go to the Google Taiwan website and search 8150 for confirmation.

    Stock could be trading down because May is a slight y/y deceleration from April (or it could just be a profit-taker). June likely to only be up 10% y/y as well. HOWEVER slowing 3Q in 2013 is unlikely this year, and if July, Aug, Sep grow even slightly m/m from previous month (highly probably in my view) then y/y comps reaccelerate.

    As it stands 2Q revs likely to come in mid-to-high end GM certainly at high-end. Once again, forward ests likely to be revised higher, with y/y growth likely to be double digits in 2H with higher margins. And of course, we will eventually get confirmation of a share conversion into a single structure.

    I don't begrudge anyone for taking profits, but stock remains cheap, and in my opinion is 20-40% higher in 6 months (or sooner).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A ton of late day volume on the bid at $24.75
    jpasc call of clear run to $30 is looking good.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today's selling done

    by memoryxpert May 30, 2014 11:02 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Jun 2, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    On it's own and doing just fine. Given fundamentals and Taiwan consolidation/ADR many reasons stock should basically be up and to the right over the next few months, notwithstanding day-to-day market noise.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert May 30, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Company in Boston. Expect close above $25. One new buyer and we take a new level with this stock. Shares are in strong, knowledgable hands. Just my take.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HIMX tanking on stock scam report.

    by hedgehog6160025 May 27, 2014 12:29 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert May 27, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    Agree with Caff - this goes to $4-$5, it becomes a great value play even without GOOG. Over next 12-24 months, tend to think GOOG/HIMX biz is overhyped and relatively immaterial to numbers anyway. Long-term, am not betting against Google/wearables, etc., but GOOG is not only game in town. HIMX investor deck makes a good read.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HIMX tanking on stock scam report.

    by hedgehog6160025 May 27, 2014 12:29 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert May 27, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Notable that Synaptics owns Validity (for fingerprint sensors), an IMOS customer. Could potentially help ChipMOS get a lot more Renesas business (as has been rumored anyway) if the deal happens.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 27, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Are you looking at a different stock? IMOS moving higher on substantially above average volume over last 2 days. I'm a fundamental investor, not a technician, but I know enough to know that price/volume action is exceptionally bullish.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 27, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Dave - I've been to Taipei and Hsinchu - would not be eager to vacation in either. Have heard good things about southern Taiwan, but if I'm going to make the trip, would prefer Thailand or Vietnam. I know you're in Japan, so willing to make the trek.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Am hopeful a lot of people will jump on the train following Cowen Conference and greater discussion/dissemination of share collapse plans. Caff, next year in Florida?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Get ready for a fun ride

    by memoryxpert May 23, 2014 11:05 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert May 26, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Caff - everything you say makes sense. Only issue, and I wouldn't complain, is say that by the time the ChipMOS/8150 Board makes a decision, IMOS could be $28 and 8150 could be 50NTD (or more). In such an event, a 50/50 cash/stock conversion is difficult (or at least with a premium) unless the opt to borrow more cash. Kind of in management's interest to keep IMOS price down, but as investors figure out how smart the whole thing is, plus with great fundamentals, IMOS and 8150 should keep rising (again, to be clear, not at all complaining).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Get ready for a fun ride

    by memoryxpert May 23, 2014 11:05 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert May 25, 2014 11:11 PM Flag

    Lizheng - not sure I agree. The IMOS (Bermuda) cash belongs to IMOS. At the end of the day, it goes to IMOS holders, whether through a dividend or a buyback. If the math at the time of conversion/share collapse makes an IMOS share repurchase more favorable for IMOS holders, that's the direction it should go. If a repurchase makes less sense (i.e. IMOS trading at $35-$40) then a dividend is fine. The more that 8150 EPS goes up with the merger, the more compelling it is to use Bermuda cash for a repurchase (and up my 8150 ownership). I wouldn't assume it's simply part of the package.
    I think we can all agree, IMOS looking way too cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Get ready for a fun ride

    by memoryxpert May 23, 2014 11:05 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert May 25, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Dave - As always, thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I have no disagreement with it, and would not be surprised at all if IMOS breaks through its high and goes parabolic (i.e. a move to $30+ over the next couple weeks especially if 8150 works, Cowen/US meeting go well, and we get a strong May sales number pointing to high-end or better for 2Q).

    I have a couple brief questions: What are your Rev/GM assumptions for '14/'15?
    Does your EPS number for the share structure collapse reflect the likely significant reduction in taxes? I think your estimates merely reflect the reduction in share count, and I assume the associated increase in interest expense. Reduced taxes would have a material positive effect on EPS & FCF.

    Re: debt. Also agree there. They have gone from over-levered to under-levered. If they took on $500M in debt @3% they'd have 15x EBITDA/Interest coverage. As you illustrate, they should reduce sharecount as much as possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 23, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    Great find! This should be a very interesting and enjoyable next few months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert May 23, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Looks like seller cleaned up, awesome news out of Taiwan, 8150 doing great, MU, Novatek, Winbond, etc., enjoying exceptional fundamentals. With IMOS mgmt in US next week, the incremental institution is a buyer not a seller. And great things post the good things short-term.
    Get/stay on the train and be ready for a Vegas reunion next year (or a trip to Florida on Caff's yacht).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 23, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    I'm not sure how management could "orchestrate" a way to keep IMOS down. If several major funds decided to buy millions of IMOS shares, it's going higher. It's not in management's power (nor is that scenario particularly legal).
    I happen to think it was a large holder selling yesterday (investor redemptions, work up on wrong side of bed, who knows), but some institutions will see the bargain and shares will go higher. The longer management waits, the more it will cost, the lesser the benefit. But, in my opinion, I can't see how it's in their power to hold it down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 23, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Lizheng - I can't say I follow. In the event US holders get cash and 8150 and 8150 share-count drops significantly, IMOS is much MORE valuable, not less valuable. It should rise, not experience a "panic sell."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert May 23, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    Lizheng, very useful info and perhaps you could/should post this last comment under a new topic as it is an excellent matter for longer discussion.

    What you say above makes complete sense, and is the "win-win" that management has promised. My only issue with it is that the longer the company waits, the more it might cost, and the less they can reduce share count. Clearly, Taiwan investors understood the implications of the debt deal and bid the stock up maximum level. It is possible (and I think probable) that IMOS shares will start rising. If 8150 follows through with additional increases (remember, it was stopped at a 7% move) and IMOS moves up, IMOS could be at $24 or $26 or $28 by the time we get to an announcement in a few months, and then to do 50/50, they aren't paying $13 a share, but perhaps $16 cash. Of course, they could raise another $100 million at likely 2% using land/equip as collateral.
    The point is, the longer they wait, the more likely that investors understand what's going to happen, and the more it will cost. Obviously, when management says "we have to discuss it with the Board" that's not entirely true - why else take on a $300 mil loan unless there was already substantial discussion. The best/cheapest way to get this done is to do exactly what you suggest, and issue a press release Tuesday (US market closed Monday) stating this as their plan, and using the US trip to gather support. Imagine the surprise if they did something ahead of schedule.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

NTE
7.02-0.07(-0.99%)Apr 21 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.