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Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. Message Board

memoryxpert 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 9, 2014 12:43 PM Member since: Jan 14, 2010
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  • Reply to

    8150 stock price

    by bamajoe20715 Apr 9, 2014 9:48 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 9, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Given their track record in buybacks, etc., absolutely conceivable that they overpay for our IMOS shares when we eventually get there. I, for one, won't complain. In the interim, stock is still fundamentally cheap and for first time in a longtime analysts will probably have to positively revise their estimates the next time the company reports results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    March customer sales - very positive

    by memoryxpert Apr 7, 2014 7:37 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 7, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    Caff - to get to 5% would require a massive March. I think 2-3% is likely and would imply a very, very good run-rate from march forward. I think 21% is realistic. Of course if they do 21% and march is the best month of the quarter, it would suggest that the month of march was over 21%. In the very likely event that 2q is up from march, it means we should start at a minimum of 22% - meaning sell-side is going to have to raise numbers.
    But if you're rights and it's 5%, that would be awesome.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ILi tech, Macronix, Novatek, Winbond - all with very good March sales. ILi is listed as a "selected top customer" on page 9 of IMOS' investor presentation - their revs were up almost 70% from march versus feb.

    Nice to see 8150 up again on big volume over night.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guaranty

    by memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 3:56 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 4, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    Thanks marnis - you forgot charming and exceedingly handsome.

    A sense of humor is not just a job requirement, but a survival skill with 3 young sons at home.

    Incidentally, the "great stamina" refers to distance running and not just other things for any pervs out there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guaranty

    by memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 3:56 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Taiwan stock market holiday... April 4 Friday Children's Day 5 Saturday Tomb-sweeping Day.

    MU results bode well for IMOS. Congrats MU longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    I'm not one to usually do Joe Namath impressions, but I 100% guarantee that 8150 will NOT trade up in Taiwan tonight. Take it to the bank.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    final IPO price is set at $NT28

    by lizheng19672002 Mar 31, 2014 10:18 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I will be impressed in the unlikely event that you make your first intelligent comment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    I agree. It is what it is. We are going to be more than fine.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stay the course

    by memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 11:12 AM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    $26-$28 by end of May. I think 8150 goes higher and IMOS will move up with it. I also think 1Q earnings, reported around May 11 or so I'd guess, will be strong and more importantly 2Q and 2014 estimates will be revised higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert Apr 3, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    As usual, the lack of a coherent explanation from IMOS mgmt is causing confusion for IMOS investors. Why a deal at 26.5nt? I don't know. Obviously a small few (including management) stand to benefit - we're talking less than $20mn though. The fact is that 8150 is going up every day. EVERY DAY. That is the relevant data point. If there was concern in Taiwan, 8150 would be dropping like a rock. It's not. I suspect major institutions are building positions bc there sure isn't enough stock to go around on the IPO for them to do so. I expect shares of both 8150 and IMOS to be higher in the weeks ahead. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A lot is being made of the 25NT-28NT offering price for the 8150 Taiex IPO (now on tape, that this is the subscription price). A few thoughts:

    1. Is this the ideal price? No. Has management gotten it right on buybacks, stock sales, etc. Nope, but they've operated and stock is still CHEAP.
    2. Does IPO price matter? NOT AT ALL. It's one thing if they were listing by selling 50 or 100 or 200 million shares. THEY ARE SELLING 20mn shares. That is less than 2.5% of 8150. It is nothing. It is meaningless. If it was meaningful 8150 would be selling off, not near 52 week highs (and up last night).
    3. The IPO is a sweetheart deal for a select few. BUT IT DOES BENEFIT US. No doubt that Fidelity Asia, Alliance, Govt of Singapore Investment, etc, have all seen the 8150 pitch. They very well could be the ones buying shares now, knowing they can get miniscule ownership via the IPO. After the listing, there will be follow-through buying, and I wouldn't be surprised if shares go from 28NT to $40NT+ in the same day.
    4. I'd expect new coverage in Asia.
    5. We could/should see double-digit y/y rev growth in 1Q and 2Q. IMOS has been cheap for a value stock...it might start showing up on growth screens and we could actually see multiple expansion and new buyers.
    6. I wouldn't expect buyback/dividend news for at least a few months (unfortunately), but there will be extra cash, so if stock doesn't go up (but pretty confident it will), this will be another lever to take shares higher.
    7. Anyone who has sold over the past couple of years bc of botched buybacks, etc. has left money on the table, unless they are a genius who has traded this both ways brilliantly.

    My opinion...last few days is noise with small cap tech getting whacked disproportionately. We have a great base $21.50-$23 and go to a much higher level very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    They have already guided $10M a year for R&D, SG&A

    by zoomlik Mar 27, 2014 10:37 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Mar 27, 2014 11:46 PM Flag

    Zoom, agree. Not sure why they won't earn $1.50-$2.50 this year.

    Any op-ex associated with today's new $25mn win? They said a lot recurring. Any sense of how much of the $25mn will recur in 2015?

    People will wake up. This will go much higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert Mar 25, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    On digitimes dot com. Will get full story tomorrow. Hopefully positive and will drive more investor focus. Given move of 8150 over past week IMOS should be 15%+ higher by my calcs. We'll get there. Long and strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150 Price Action

    by memoryxpert Mar 19, 2014 9:18 PM
    memoryxpert memoryxpert Mar 20, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    8150 once again up very big in Taiwan on high volume. New highs should be coming soon for IMOS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert by memoryxpert Mar 19, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Extremely encouraging to continue to see 8150 trek higher on solid volume DESPITE the fact that stock is about to become available in an offering. Shares are at the highest level since the week of their original April 2013 IPO.

    Over the past few years, we have collectively argued that IMOS is ridiculously cheap and would go up if it simply gets a half-decent multiple. With rev growth of over 10% y/y likely in 1Q and quite possibly 2Q, and some solid gross margin expansion also probable - we might see some fairly meaningful multiple expansion.

    Long and strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ought to see some forced buying of IMOS this week with new inclusion on the NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index. Nice to see things firmly going in the right direction on multiple fronts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There's a positive article on IMOS on Digitimes today - sure seems like the company is firing on all cylinders.

    They are expected to land more large-size LCD driver ICs for use in Ultra HD displays. In addition they have won more mixed-signal IC business, including e-compass and power management ICs. They're also expected to start shipping sensor products in 2Q.

    In my view, looking increasingly likely that we get double-digit y/y growth in 2Q (in addition to 1Q) and conceivably double-digit sequential growth Q/Q. IMOS may soon find itself with growth investors looking at shares and not just value-folks (perfect timing for a Taiwan IPO). This could result in a multiple re-rating - imagine where IMOS trades with a growth multiple. Could be exciting times ahead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think SK/SJ did a good job on the conference call. If you count how many time they said "shareholder value" versus 12 or 18 months ago, well clearly they are doing a lot in terms of trying to get proper messaging across.

    Some thoughts:
    1. If you asked me a couple days ago about 1Q I would have said flat to down a couple percent and GM of 15-20%, so this is a very positive outlook, and as management noted, better than seasonal.
    2. SK was not wishy-washy regarding gross margins. Clearly they go up from 1Q. He was VERY comfortable with 22% for the year, and conceivably if things work out, I think we could be a couple hundred bps better. But 22% would be a healthy improvement from 2013.
    3. IPO timing didn't slip. "APRIL" - so many speed-bumps along the way, but not today.
    4. SJ sounded very confident that the IPO will be a major catalyst for shareholder value creation. This is not different than our view, but really nice to hear it from the CEO. I'd assume he has a very good sense of what type of feedback the I-banks are getting. Caff has pointed to some notable examples of uplistings in Taiwan resulting in 20-50% 1 day moves. Not sure if we'll get it, but certainly a very near-term catalyst.
    5. Core business sounds really healthy which could result in a multiple re-rating. IMOS could see double-dig growth which would be a big acceleration. Perhaps this very cheap stock actually gets a decent multiple.

    I realize IMOS not nearly as cheap as it was in the sub $5 or $10 days, and personally, unless facts change for the better, I'm likely out in the $30-$32 range, but this was a very solid 4Q call and 1Q/'14 outlook. Definitely see us going higher in weeks ahead - on absolute and relative basis, stock is still inexpensive.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • memoryxpert memoryxpert Mar 10, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    Read their press release from April 8th of last year. They set the bar low (on EPS anyway) and walked numbers higher with positive preannouncements twice in coming quarters.

    Not suggesting that they were/are doing anything inappropriate, but they are in theory in the stock (as management) for multiple years. Setting a big guide where they could miss isn't going to help. Setting a conservative guide, where they can increasingly meet institutional investors, tell the story, and make those investors happy as they make/beat/raise makes a ton of sense. The market cap is up substantially from a year ago, or even a few quarters ago. This is an earnings reset that is temporary pain (although for them, could help pad their pocketbooks), but sets a good, beatable course for '14.

    As an aside, did they alienate some of their shareholder base with this guide? Sure, but I'd guess that a lot of the purchases in the last weeks were from momentum investors with limited loyalty/history with the co.

    Sell-off now seems overdone - I learned nothing on the call that suggests long-term not intact. But they did mention falling NAND/loosening DRAM as a potential short/medium-term tailwind for GMs...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dana and Hanif received options with a strike price set based on the price of HILL 3 days after reporting 4Q earnings. Hmmm, methinks there might be a reason to give a conservative outlook. Dana got 260,000 options, Hanif 106,000. Now the options are at $3.95 instead of $5.95. And they set the bar pretty low on EPS. Setting up for nice beat and raises and they get paid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

NTE
7.09+0.13(+1.87%)Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT

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