The price is usually not revealed immediately. They would have to price it at a 5-10% deal compared to the closing of the day. That's where the low 14's come in. If the pricing is anything over 14.00, it means that KERX got a great deal at an opportune time and there's tons of support for the stock. If they priced it on last week's price, we could see 12-14 for the offering price. If we see 12.00 or lower i'll be a bit disappointed.
I thought the pullback to 16, and support at 16.02, was pretty good after that move up. We've moved like 12% off the low of the last week, so to give back 3% seems completely reasonable. I agree, selling puts is pretty decent. I was call buying in the 14's, and then call selling in the 16.30 range. Now put selling.
I called my broker. That doesn't work for my broker. If it's in a margin account and you are borrowing on margin, they will lend. If you you have it in a cash account they will not lend. End of story.
I disagree chinese. The threat of herceptin conjugated to other toxins (some in phase 1 and 2 that are showing promise) is high. Once herceptin moves off patent, the natural conclusion is that those patients would be moved to kadcyla and roche would retain the revenue. However, with competition in the market, i doubt that kadcyla will get the same penetrance as herceptin.
i dislike the hedge theory on the 15 strike calls for december. These were bought when the price was 14.80-15.00, if I recall correctly, and I don't think shorting for 3 weeks would be expected to be profitable if you're spending 0.50 on each option hedge. If I were to go short at 14.50 or 14.80, and have a 3 week timespan, I'd be using a 17 strike as a hedge, looking for about a dollar short profit with a loss to the hedge of less than 0.10. I think that it had to be someone going long, because buying a near the money option for 3 weeks away is a play that you make when you think you know something that everyone else doesn't.
With respect to the 19's in july, i believe it's a roll. Unlike the 15's for december, these could be a short hedge. However, if they are paired with the close of the 15's and we believe that the 15's were not a short play, then the person must be rolling up and out. They went for 1.06 with a bid ask spread of 0.95/1.10, and with today's upward movement that tells me they were a large buy, not a large sell.
Someone is investing 4000*100*0.90=$360,000 into IMGN contracts after having just lost 100*0.24*4000=$ 96000.
I feel like 2 billion would be a low ball for this, one proven drug, many in pipeline, and the technology/IP. That's an easy 25 dollars per share, and I'd think that 2.5 billion wouldn't be a stretch for a purchaser either- 30 dollars/share.
This morning certainly looked like the lump of coal for the shorts, but then the bottom just fell out and fear set in. I am a little annoyed i didn't hedge with selling calls more after the move to 15, but frankly, if it can swing that fast, I expect that once the market stabilizes we'll see a rise pretty quickly- tomorrow or the next day. Good to see that the QE taper has been started!!!!
I've been thinking about these calls all day. It would make sense that max pain would put the price at 15 on friday, but I can't imagine one person made a 4000 option buy 2 weeks ago with a strike of 15 dollars without having a good reason for it to go well over 15. In fact, it would have to be 15.40 or so to break even. Any rational person wouldn't go all in on one strike with just two weeks, when the price was already (at the time of that purchase) 14.85.
My interpretation is that there will be something spectacular in the next two days, so I am leaving my new options and shares from this latest pullback unhedged- let's see what we get!
Defense WAS better than offense when AGNC was at 23-25 dollars. Now that it's 19.48, you're looking at a swing of at worst a dollar or two down, and once things calm down a swing back up into the low 20's. When Goldmansachs said to sell, they had actually increased their holdings by 2x in the past 3 months, so they were buying. I'm taking the chance and buying in now.
Disagree, i think that interest rates will go down on the announcement. It's the one thing that everyone is not expecting- if anyone is afraid enough to see their bonds, they would have done so already. Once there is some certainty, and a plan is laid out, you'll see the people who are waiting on the sidelines for bonds start to buy.
I have always found that when people start to call a stock moving another 20-25% in the short term, it's nearly exhausted its move.
Finally! Back to the good ole days, tooth vs richoncat. It seems like the past 3-4 months have seen this board filled up with others that don't contribute much.