Platinum has millions of shares and has ridden this from 40 to 2. If they cannot vote Doman out, they will want to get whatever money they have invested out of the company. I think that's fair, and it's actually good of them to announce that- for what it's worth I will be selling mine too. Who would buy? They will lose platinum as a financing source, and no one else will finance them with that stigma.
In a lot of ways it makes sense to farm information and place it here. We, as individual investors, can only help each other by doing that to make it more clear what is happening with Immunogen. I have been a part of the Tesla motors forum, and I truly believe that the free dissemination of information there allowed retail investors to have a leg up over both institutions and hedge funds.
If they are sitting on over a billion in cash, how can they put that money to good use or distribute it? As an investor I'm unwilling to give them too much credit for sitting on a large amount of cash- I don't want to buy cash with my cash, I want to buy future revenue. If they sit on that money for 10 years and it doesn't grow, then that fraction of the stock price is wasted investment.
So, how can cree put that money to good use? Return it as a dividend? Or use it to acquire another company?
Ok so I made a mistake, the above figures were in CHF, that means that we end up getting 17 million in US dollars.
Also, the above assumes that the US is lackluster, instead modeling the same rate of growth as seen before we get the US to another 30 million additional, putting total revenue for the us to 310 million for the year, and rest of world to 224 million, and that makes us at 534 million for the year.
If that is the case, IMGN revenue increases to 18.1 million US dollars for the year.
Biotest buy in will come unexpectedly? Biotest is claiming it's a 2 billion dollar market, and i think for 10 million dollars IMGN can get half revenue- that buy in would add 8-10 dollars to the stock price as it would be better than kadcyla revenue currently.
I've seen this across the board. On any news, even good news, the stock is taken out to the woodshed and beaten. It's usually a 10% drop, and it's flushing out all retail investors. Give it 5 more weeks of this and we'll see things reverse.
There is no way they have 500MM NOL left. There was prob turnover of the top 5 holders when the stock was priced at 1 dollar, which sets the NOLs equal to the "present value" of the company. At 1 dollar/share, that's 37 million. Best case scenario is that they have 37 million in NOLs left.
That's not an afterhours block trade. After hours can't support that much volume without moving by a tremendous amount. That's an institutional trade that occurs during the day but just gets printed at the end of the day.
On april 26, i posted a page about the expected Kadcyla sales. here's my updated analysis.
1) The royalty structure for IMGN is based on a US and Rest-of-world tiered structure. 3% up to 250million, 3.5% from 250 to 400 million, 4% from 400 to 700 million in sales, and 5% above 700million.
All numbers below are in CHF, the exchange rate is 1.11 dollars per CHF.
In the US, sales for the half were 143 million, however, since they were 73 for last quarter that means sales for the latest quarter are down to 70 million. THATS BAD IF ITS TRUE.
In Europe, sales for the half were 63, meaning Q1 was 25 and Q2 was 38. That's good, it's high growth.
In Japan, sales went from 0 last quarter to 9 this quarter, expect good growth in japan but remember they can't sell the treatment for more than 3000 dollars, compared to way higher in the US.
Internationally, sales for the half were 8 million, since they were Q1 4 million that leaves us with a doubling to 8 million.
If the US remains lackluster, we will pull in another 140 for the year total, putting us at 280 for the USA.
For the rest of the world, we got 84 million for the first half and I would make the assumption that japan will have a rapid adoption to about 30 million for the half, europe to 90 million, and international to 20 million in the back half of the year. If I recall correctly, roche might be calling this previous quarter "Q2 2014" whereas IMGN calls it Q1 2015. So in the back half of 2014 for the rest of the world, we sum to 30+90+20=140 million, and if you add in the US 140 million lackluster sales, 280 million total for all the world.
So let's get some totals to figure out what royalties we might get then.
In the US, first half of the year is 143MM, second half of the year is (if lackluster) 140, then total of 283 Million.
Rest of world: 84 million for the first half of the year, and a predicted 140 million for the second half of the year, for a total of 224 million.
Ok so I ran out of space in the above post, and let's do some royalty tiers:
In the us, we have 3%*250million +3.5%*33 million= 8.7 million
Rest of world 3%*224=6.72 million
IMGN will therefore get 15.43 million in revenue for the full 2014 year.
NICE only rejected the drug over price: "Heat on Roche to cut Kadcyla price after NICE 'no'".
Here we go, off the chugai website:
Drug price: Kadcyla® Intravenous Infusion 100 mg/vial 235,108 yen
Kadcyla® Intravenous Infusion 160 mg/vial 373,945 yen
That makes the prices 2300 and 3700 per infusion, vs the us : Kadcyla is $3,328.28 for 100 mg and $5,325.25 for 150 mg vials.
So yeah, I guess a 20-30% cut in Japan.
I totally share your frustration, but I'm currently hoping we're just in a temporary low between good data-- the approval of Kadcyla last year and then the good data to come later this year. We've got a lot of catalysts that can add value to the company, but I wish the company itself would hype its own advancement more. I am amazed at the low market value of the company but it seems like no one wants to credit IMGN for anything that isn't 100% sure, and agree that wallstreet is discounting IMGN for its failures in the past year (particularly 901). I am sticking with this till october with the hopes of
BT062 (short term)
Kadcyla label expansion
Cytomx drugs (long term)
Kadcyla first line
This is completely insane. This company doesn't give a rats butt about its shareholders. I wish i had never invested in this company.
Yeah good point. It looks like futures are down at this point, it would not surprise me to see it open 100 pts down tomorrow, that seems to be the typical 2 day follow through pattern of international conflicts.
Yaleloe: tomorrow is the annual shareholder meeting.
I just don't see the top shareholders, those with 5% ownership, remaining with the company. The moment there's a change in ownership, the NOLS get 'imprinted' as the current company value. So whereas they were like 500 million before, if there is a change in ownership of the company, the NOLs get set equal to the company value at the time of the change in ownership. I think we had an event that triggered a change in ownership when the stock was 1 dollar, because of all the volume, and that would set the NOLs equal to 37 million (assuming 1 dollar per share at the time of the ownership change).
Have you seen the response from carol in investors relations posted on IH? You have got to be kidding me. How can she say "oh the FDA made a nice announcement"? Either completely incompetent PR department or there's a reason they aren't pumping this. I'm inclined to believe the former, as I've never seen them really advertise anything.
if you extrapolate sales figures by territory, kadcyla revenues may move from 3% in fy2014 to 4% for fy2015. We will get revenue on 82 million for q4, then if we extrapolate and go
90 million in us sales
100 million in us sales
110 million in us sales
120 million in us sales
that gives us just over 400 million for fy2015, giving us the 4% instead of 3.5%. If we hit 400 million on the dot, our revenue is 15 million for the year, as opposed to 304 million for fy2014...
Wait, i just realized if we hit 304, we're actually going to get 3.5% instead of 3%- I wonder if how roche pays out that extra 5%, since they can't anticipate where sales will fall at the beginning of the year- i think they may have to make an extra payment of 0.5% on 300 million at the end of the year. If only that weren't such a measly 1.5 million dollars....
Still, we have the potential to go from 3.5x 304 million in 2014 to 4x400 million, so 10 million in US royalties to 16 million in us royalties for fy2015 on second line use alone.