I see the ask is 5.80 for a 10-strike call. Hopefully you can get them for lower than that, otherwise you're better off with stock. Did you get a fill under 5 dollars?
Thank you blue,
I am unclear about the specifics of one script- how long after a script a patient would have to refill? It is 1 month based on your $9492 value for the year, is that correct? When we receive numbers like two weeks ago, where it was 249 TRx, how can we figure out what the rate of renewal is?
you have a fatal flaw in your last paragraph where you say "so if kerx can get to 423 new scripts per week, they could make $1 eps": You earlier made the assumption that there is 100% refill rate, and we know that isn't true- in fact it's way lower.
I think that a takeout might come from a partner who sees promise in more than one of their drugs using IMGN technology. I'm thinking like novartis, etc. Such a company would have advanced notice of the success of the drugs, and rather than pay IMGN royalties that might total 800 million, it would be better to just spend the 800 million and buy the company, plus the regular premium. I think that these data don't make a compelling case to buy IMGN right now. Why gamble before approval, if it gets early approval then its easier to buy the company when the stock price is 18 dollars than 14 dollars without approval.
I completely agree it will be a bloodbath again, for the shorts. This had tremendous volume, and ended in the upper quartile of the price range today, so its likely to gap up again tomorrow. 16+ in the first few minutes, especially if margin calls for the short sellers are settled. Good call on the blood bath.
you're viewing this through all of our negatively-skewed IMGN glasses. There is a chance that these data will change how this stock is viewed. We've all been conditioned to view IMGN negatively over the past 2 years, but if the sentiment on the stock has changed, a premium for the company will be added to the stock.
i'll buy my puts tomorrow if it pops up to 16+. This much of a move on this much volume is going to leave a lot of people behind- shorts especially.
Although the authors cannot over interpret their work because they get their hands slapped by reviewers, I can overinterpret for them.
There was a good reduction in adverse events in the ferric citrate group (39%) compared to the active control (49%). This is super good for Auryxia. A good amount of these came from a reduction in infections, and a good amount came from cardiovascular side effects, but the biggest effect was in gastrointestinal side effects. Furthermore, the patient population had been selected based on being able to tolerate the active control, so it was already preselected in favor of the active control which makes these data even stronger.
Thanks for bringing up this article.
Yeah, i've seen a lot with that much institutional ownership, it doesn't always work out. I've even seen some with 101-110% institutional ownership.
I'm guessing they have to lose... 800 million dollars by doing that. Right now they have only 200 million at risk.
Or not. They just lend the shares out to short sellers who pay approximately 7% annually to short (current rate for kerx). Then they buy the shares back from the shorts and lend them out to the shorts again. No need to waste resources shorting against the box. You claim "make money in both directions" which really is "make money in no direction, but tie up resources"
Isn't the adjusted price of the initial IPO shares 40 dollars after you back out the reverse splits? I think that most investors would want to be made whole, so would hold out for that price rather than just take what they can. If I bought in any of the offerings, I'd want to sell to recoup what i had invested.
When PWC was retained, the company was at 0.60 per shares, valuing it at like 8 million dollars. I'm sure that they could have found a buyer then for 20 or 30 million, but virtually every investor would be underwater on an asset that is valued by these investors as 100 million. So it's better to right the sinking ship, demonstrate progress and pull the value of the company up to 50 million and then sell it for several fold higher.
no one knows that a company is going to be bought until the last second. How do you know there aren't ongoing discussions?
Plus why would pharma buy a company making a medical device? Pharma is buying cancer drugs.
It fell on 10k shares. How does the management's opinion in the company translate into a one day stock gain/loss? They didn't sell any shares and they didn't put any announcement out.