Looks like we attempted to break out above the ~12.20 top that has been resistance for a while. I personally am glad to see us sitting at 12.06 now and catching our breath. I think there are a TON of people who feel trapped and want out, and they are happy to sell now at 12.20, but if we break through that point we'll start to see sellers vanish and more steady hands remain in the stock.
Premium is so crummy right now for the forward two months that i don't see it worth writing the calls. I'm losing money on this belief, but as we flirt with the 50 day average, i think we might be pulling in short term traders and stabilizing the price on the dips higher. I won't write calls now because i think we risk a 1-2 dollar move up quickly, from 12 to 13 that would occur in 1 week. I'll sell the calls after.
I'm hanging my hat on 100 million in revenue for the year. That sounds really nice and I hope that it comes true. Along with BT062 and Marianne, and the stock making the bottom of what I hope to be a V, now seems like a poor time to sell. If you're concerned about the long term implications, you might as well get out at the end of the year, but not too soon. IMO.
wow i came to this board twice today and found it full of useless posts, then i did what you suggested and boom! all the posts are gone.
Seems like we are all just holding our collective breaths here. This move over the 50 day will prob bring in some traders, and give life to this stock again. It just becomes a question of whether this rally is "real" or if we'll hit 14 and then fall to 12 again. I actually see 16 as a potential year end target now.
I've got a long position, but I'm amazed at how incorrect you are here. Every week the price is lower than the week before. The 52 week low is 1.53 and we're sitting here at 1.77. Every day is an opportunity for them to cover, and i doubt that they feel trapped at all for the same reason that I feel like investing in ECTE was a horrible decision to begin with: there is no competent management and the company is hemorrhaging money.
The only way they would be trapped is if the price was rising and each time a short seller tried to cover, it would push the price up. That is certainly not the case as each day the price ends on a lower note. They prob can cover the full daily volume here, as I don't think anyone else wants to buy this.
here's a link to the 8k, i was wrong and it wasn't filed today. However, the fact remains that Junius is not selling all his shares immediately. In the preceding paragraphs, he does dispose of 35000 options, but in this paragraph he keeps 62000 options.
not released today, my bad. Released jun 24th but came up today in a search for some reason. Still seems good.
8k released today says:
In addition to the foregoing transactions, Mr., Junius has informed the Company that he intends to exercise up to 62,384 additional options to purchase the Company's common stock prior to their expiration on May 9, 2015, and to retain ownership of the shares received upon such exercise.
I was like WHAT?????? He's gonna keep those shares!?!?!?!?!??!?! The time is nigh! Load up, Junius is keeping his shares!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(kinda a joke. kinda not.)
Yeah, nothing new of substance, they reiterated the 100 million revenue and emphasized how that is different from other companies, and they said that the Kadcyla deal revenue percent was a starting point and now they are getting more credit and getting higher % royalties from others.
Monetizing COULD be a bad idea, but it could also be a good idea. We know they will last through 2015 without a capital raise, and at the end of 2015 (which ends in july 2015) they will have 60 million.
Let's say they wait to hear from Marianne, then they monetize in feb of next year with one more indication. They monetize have the revenue in return for several hundred million up front. 300 million? Now they don't have to do a capital raise for a while, the stock trends upward, hits 16-18 and they can do a capital raise then at a price that is more advantageous than this crummy 11 dollars per share.
Thanks for the explanation, so essentially it's just giving away future revenue for an upfront payment to avoid having to sell shares. With the number of other indications that Kadcyla could be used for, the purchaser of that revenue stream could be very lucky.
I just finished the transcript and was quite frustrated with it. If I'm frustrated, I imagine the analysts are too. IMGN execs never give any answer to any question. They get asked "can you give us more details on so-and-so" and then answer "no, refer to the published material". There is no reason to have this conference call, it's pointless. I get nothing of substance from their call.
I would imagine that if they will not give any insight into their year, analysts are hesitant to believe them. "Lower single digit revenue" probably means 1%, since they wouldn't clarify. "Mid to upper digit revenue" for their ADC compounds probably means 6%... Maybe it doesn't mean that, but I'm sure the analysts are calculating future earnings based on the lowest numbers possible.
The only surprise that I see is a potential milestone payment for the latest drug achieving orphan drug status. I am personally waiting till the second half for Marianne and for the BT062 buy in to occur. I haven't seen any other events that might trigger a milestone payment.
It looks to me like sales of Kadcyla are flat in the US, and despite their expansion in the world it's not going to be the 4 billion dollar drug within the next year or two. I have a hard time figuring out what Kadcyla sales will be in 2 years time, as it seems that Roche has no incentive to push Kadcyla right now and they are instead pushing perjeta.
I want to play devil's advocate here. I don't feel that share price alone is a reason to fire a CEO. What tangible reasons are there to get rid of Junius or the BOD?
What I can think of include: The way that pulling 901 was handled, and the very low royalty rates on Kadcyla.
This latest stock move is probably from the crummy US sales on Kadcyla- but these aren't controlled by IMGN, Roche is screwing IMGN over by pushing perjeta. If the Marianne study is pushed to later 2014, that sucks as well but isn't the CEO's fault.
What are your criticisms of the internal pipeline? Partnered compounds can't be pushed faster than the partner wants to go, but I'm not sure what your tangible criticisms are of the internal pipeline beyond "it's not moving fast enough".
This comment isn't meant to attack, just to prompt conversation because IMGN the stock appears dead.
The good thing is that I don't think IMGN is truly being measured on this drug alone. There's so many good catalysts in the next few months that could take us significantly higher.
Well, I don't know if surged is the word. I think that they increased in the rest of the world pretty dramatically but they stalled in the US for 4 quarters. My take is that roche doesn't have the manufacturing capacity or else they don't have the desire to increase sales in the US at this point.