large pharma doesn't want to buy a crummy drug on the cheap tho. Look at Intermune, it could have been bought for 9 dollars but instead large pharma decided to de-risk and wait for more information and instead they paid 77 six months later. No one says "it's a risky buy but it's super cheap". Rather, they say "this is now going to be a good drug, let's wait and get the final results and then overpay a little"
Ill probably follow suit, but i think that there exists a chance that Kadcyla is approved for 1st line treatment even if it is nonsuperior. In that case, we would see a nice doubling of the price.
when you look at IMGN's 3% decline in the context of the IBB being dragged down by GILD's 15% decline, it looks pretty healthy. Plus, 5x normal volume, so someone was buying a large amount at this point.
i don't think we'll see acquisition at this point. This is old technology, and now the marianne trial questions whether the technology even works. companies want to buy good stuff even if they pay a premium, not crummy technology just because its cheap.
MARIANNE news should be released before the end of the year according to Roche. I think someone has been buying shares of IMGN, yet keeping the price down.We see large 10% moves up and then 8% moves down as they attempt to control the price and accumulate more. Maybe that news will come out tomorrow.
264 11 strike calls bought for 0.50 today. Maybe bought to close since they have come down from such a high level? But why buy when you get almost 25 dollars per day in decay unless you think thursday is going to be an awesome day?
Since we're getting another beat down, it might be interesting to note the latest option trade: 11 contracts that were bought at 18 and 17 dollar strikes for july- but they paid 1.35 for them. Small but tremendously bullish.
what date/strike are you looking at? I only see 100-200 options traded of any particular strike, not like the 5000 opened yesterday.
The 5000 calls clearly outnumber the 1300 puts, and they are approx valued and both near the ask, so bought to open. If it was done by the same individual, that would be a substantially larger bullish bet.
yeah you've hit the nail on the head there with that second sentence. I was discussing licensing deals with someone from a larger pharma and that's exactly what they said about IMGN: old technology followed by the comment: why put a toxin in the body when you could use some of the new modified Fc antibodies (BiTe etc.) For me, I see the plus being that it kills the cell when internalized.
I noticed yesterday that the higher strikes were unpopulated with bids. Now today, hte higher strike options are populated and appear to be populated with bids according to the current IV- which I am interpreting to mean that a market maker just started taking option sales at all strikes? I don't see that sort of population coming from an individual buyer. I think we may have been selling to a market maker.
I just got action on the dec 20th 15 strike, selling 17 for 0.30 cents each. That's ridiculous IV. That would indicate the pricing of IMGN to be like 17 or 18 in under 14 days. With that sort of pricing, i almost think they are pricing in a buy-out for 20+ dollars.
price of options is too high to be selling these options as a hedge in covered call fashion. Not enough shorting on Short-analytics to think they are being used to offset a large short play. Therefore, buy to open for long position. IMO. Plus see my post on buy-at-market-close on IV board.
Speaking of "someone knowing something", did you see the article about how pharma company executives are having their emails hacked and the hackers are using the information to trade in the stock market??? on google this mornign.
What if kadcyla monotherapy beats out the kadcyla/perj. arm in marianne? As JV points out on the IV board, Roche has initiated another study using only Kadcyla, not kad/perj.
Ah I see. im pretty sure those were wednesday's options, just because i remember that 3k option trade occurring on wed according to google. Maybe the system didn't update because of the holiday half day? Either way, looks positive, no?
I am not sure where you are getting that information- both google and fidelity are reporting that no jan 10 calls were traded today, though your open interest figure is correct.