Darn it I forgot to convert to US dollars again. Instead of 15 to 16 million CHF, I meant that IMGN will get 17-18 million us dollars.
I am absolutely amazed at the 83% growth in Kadcyla and the 183% growth in Perjeta. Which one are they pushing? Well clearly not Kadcyla.
I think your estimates are on the high side. I made my own post that is an independent projection. Rest of world increased by much more than 25% this last quarter, but the US was stagnant, if not down. Based on that, I would not model a 25% quarter over quarter. In the us, we started to see adoption go up by 10% or less after 3 quarters of sales. My estimate (see my long post for details) is down at 504 million CHF for the full year if the US remains stagnant, and 534 million CHF if the US returns to growth that it had before. US sales went 70CHF for Q3 then 70 CHF for Q4 then 73 CHF and now back down to 70 CHF. I don't see sales going up to my higher target.
I think that IMGN hits 15 to 16 million in revenue from kadcyla. I don't have predictions on milestones.
Ok so I made a mistake, the above figures were in CHF, that means that we end up getting 17 million in US dollars.
Also, the above assumes that the US is lackluster, instead modeling the same rate of growth as seen before we get the US to another 30 million additional, putting total revenue for the us to 310 million for the year, and rest of world to 224 million, and that makes us at 534 million for the year.
If that is the case, IMGN revenue increases to 18.1 million US dollars for the year.
Ok so I ran out of space in the above post, and let's do some royalty tiers:
In the us, we have 3%*250million +3.5%*33 million= 8.7 million
Rest of world 3%*224=6.72 million
IMGN will therefore get 15.43 million in revenue for the full 2014 year.
On april 26, i posted a page about the expected Kadcyla sales. here's my updated analysis.
1) The royalty structure for IMGN is based on a US and Rest-of-world tiered structure. 3% up to 250million, 3.5% from 250 to 400 million, 4% from 400 to 700 million in sales, and 5% above 700million.
All numbers below are in CHF, the exchange rate is 1.11 dollars per CHF.
In the US, sales for the half were 143 million, however, since they were 73 for last quarter that means sales for the latest quarter are down to 70 million. THATS BAD IF ITS TRUE.
In Europe, sales for the half were 63, meaning Q1 was 25 and Q2 was 38. That's good, it's high growth.
In Japan, sales went from 0 last quarter to 9 this quarter, expect good growth in japan but remember they can't sell the treatment for more than 3000 dollars, compared to way higher in the US.
Internationally, sales for the half were 8 million, since they were Q1 4 million that leaves us with a doubling to 8 million.
If the US remains lackluster, we will pull in another 140 for the year total, putting us at 280 for the USA.
For the rest of the world, we got 84 million for the first half and I would make the assumption that japan will have a rapid adoption to about 30 million for the half, europe to 90 million, and international to 20 million in the back half of the year. If I recall correctly, roche might be calling this previous quarter "Q2 2014" whereas IMGN calls it Q1 2015. So in the back half of 2014 for the rest of the world, we sum to 30+90+20=140 million, and if you add in the US 140 million lackluster sales, 280 million total for all the world.
So let's get some totals to figure out what royalties we might get then.
In the US, first half of the year is 143MM, second half of the year is (if lackluster) 140, then total of 283 Million.
Rest of world: 84 million for the first half of the year, and a predicted 140 million for the second half of the year, for a total of 224 million.
I'm in agreement on the IMGN share price. Seems like in the darkest hour (touching all time lows) there was a good amount of strength. I assumed when we hit 10.68 we'd gap down to 10.25 and when we didn't i picked up 3k shares. I sold them at 11.3 this morning but then bought them back and more at 11.45. I think most retail investors have been flushed as virtually everyone here is sitting on huge losses unless they were short. (18 dollars down to 11??).
I think we have a few good things to come this summer- the IBB will reverse and the rising tide will lift all biotech ships.
If legislation proposed by mccain etc passes allowing a tax holiday on money earned world wide, i think we will see it applied to acquisitions.
The BT-062 buy in. Data from that appears amazing.
I am more or less apathetic about the kadcyla sales. We got like 250 million last year, and we might see 500 million this year? I don't really know and won't until the roche meeting on july 24th. I think the only catalyst here is if there is expanded kadcyla labels and possibly first line treatment, otherwise the best we get is like 10 million. When revenues come up over 20 million, wake me up.
What did you mean by monetizing the revenue stream? What is being proposed????
I am against a split of Ukraine, just based on the fact that I don't want putin to get a win out of this. If he gets something, i think he might want more rather than be appeased.
By the way, on today's volume: i think a lot of people were short and looking for a big drop from the world wide action and didn't get it- they haven't closed because volume hasn't been high enough. I'm thinking a bit of a squeeze if we get some more neutral or upward action.
Have you seen the response from carol in investors relations posted on IH? You have got to be kidding me. How can she say "oh the FDA made a nice announcement"? Either completely incompetent PR department or there's a reason they aren't pumping this. I'm inclined to believe the former, as I've never seen them really advertise anything.
Do you really think that they listen? I'd just be amazed if someone sent them an email "hey Roche, you should check out IMGN! It's undervalued, yo." Unless you know people personally at the company...
I must admit I'm thinking the same thing. I am wondering when institutions decide to pull the plug and cash out, I'd rather get out with 11 dollars than 9 dollars.
Other than the fact that these are both stocks with 4 letters in their ticker names, and they were both down at one point, there is no similarity.
I agree for the most part. Really they just need one every few years to work, and I think that will be biotest this year. 15 million will get them the opt in, and then its a matter of partnering the rest of their stuff so it doesn't hemorrhage while they try to get cash from their two main plays, kadcyla and bt-062.
Biotest buy in will come unexpectedly? Biotest is claiming it's a 2 billion dollar market, and i think for 10 million dollars IMGN can get half revenue- that buy in would add 8-10 dollars to the stock price as it would be better than kadcyla revenue currently.
Yes, they have gone home for the weekend, and I'm glad. It means that they won't mess up today. 3 more days where I don't have to worry about them messing up- and next week is july 4th so I can assume that's a 5 day weekend there for them where they won't drop the ball again either.
Yes, i am locked and loaded at this price, i picked up another couple thousand shares, several hundred calls and am ready to ride. Now, granted, I've #$%$ up buying IMGN in the past but I think the 11.60 level is the rallying level.
Famous last words.
That just doesn't seem realistic. I think we have a negative catalyst with this report that tanked the stock. There's such poor volume on it that it's easy to move. I was pretty happy yesterday watching IMGN cross 13.74 as the Merck deal was announced, so there are some people out there who would be willing to pay ~14 for IMGN. I think in 2 weeks we will put this Morgan Stanley report behind us and be knocking on 14's door again. The stock hasn't changed from yesterday in its fundamental value, it's just that no one really knows what the value is. I believe that we are getting closer and closer to having a pipeline or partnered product give us money, and if not, then some additional Kadcyla label expansion. It seems like these issues never really come, but are always being worked on. So I think the 2015 leap options seem like a good timeline to get in at.
In fact, I see the stock has hit 11.99 again on late afternoon selling. I'm surprised that it didn't go down to 11.88 with the way that IMGN usually sucks during a bear attack. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that get some late volume and end up at 12.30 or so, the 50 day SMA.