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mershaw2001 66 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2014 1:40 PM Member since: Feb 1, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Earnings expectations?

    by afro_bro_bro Jul 28, 2014 1:23 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 28, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    The only surprise that I see is a potential milestone payment for the latest drug achieving orphan drug status. I am personally waiting till the second half for Marianne and for the BT062 buy in to occur. I haven't seen any other events that might trigger a milestone payment.
    It looks to me like sales of Kadcyla are flat in the US, and despite their expansion in the world it's not going to be the 4 billion dollar drug within the next year or two. I have a hard time figuring out what Kadcyla sales will be in 2 years time, as it seems that Roche has no incentive to push Kadcyla right now and they are instead pushing perjeta.

  • Reply to

    Lows since 2011, Junius and BOD must go!

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 25, 2014 11:19 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 25, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I want to play devil's advocate here. I don't feel that share price alone is a reason to fire a CEO. What tangible reasons are there to get rid of Junius or the BOD?
    What I can think of include: The way that pulling 901 was handled, and the very low royalty rates on Kadcyla.

    This latest stock move is probably from the crummy US sales on Kadcyla- but these aren't controlled by IMGN, Roche is screwing IMGN over by pushing perjeta. If the Marianne study is pushed to later 2014, that sucks as well but isn't the CEO's fault.

    What are your criticisms of the internal pipeline? Partnered compounds can't be pushed faster than the partner wants to go, but I'm not sure what your tangible criticisms are of the internal pipeline beyond "it's not moving fast enough".

    This comment isn't meant to attack, just to prompt conversation because IMGN the stock appears dead.

  • Reply to

    Nice chart summary of sales on the IV Board

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 24, 2014 6:26 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    what is this, some bot that copies my posts elsewhere?

  • mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    The good thing is that I don't think IMGN is truly being measured on this drug alone. There's so many good catalysts in the next few months that could take us significantly higher.

  • mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    Well, I don't know if surged is the word. I think that they increased in the rest of the world pretty dramatically but they stalled in the US for 4 quarters. My take is that roche doesn't have the manufacturing capacity or else they don't have the desire to increase sales in the US at this point.

  • Reply to

    Roche Kadcyla sales

    by slumdawg2011 Jul 24, 2014 1:34 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 3:15 AM Flag

    Darn it I forgot to convert to US dollars again. Instead of 15 to 16 million CHF, I meant that IMGN will get 17-18 million us dollars.

  • Reply to

    Roche Kadcyla sales

    by slumdawg2011 Jul 24, 2014 1:34 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 3:02 AM Flag

    I am absolutely amazed at the 83% growth in Kadcyla and the 183% growth in Perjeta. Which one are they pushing? Well clearly not Kadcyla.

    I think your estimates are on the high side. I made my own post that is an independent projection. Rest of world increased by much more than 25% this last quarter, but the US was stagnant, if not down. Based on that, I would not model a 25% quarter over quarter. In the us, we started to see adoption go up by 10% or less after 3 quarters of sales. My estimate (see my long post for details) is down at 504 million CHF for the full year if the US remains stagnant, and 534 million CHF if the US returns to growth that it had before. US sales went 70CHF for Q3 then 70 CHF for Q4 then 73 CHF and now back down to 70 CHF. I don't see sales going up to my higher target.

    I think that IMGN hits 15 to 16 million in revenue from kadcyla. I don't have predictions on milestones.

  • Reply to

    My analysis of roche Kadcyla sales.

    by mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 2:48 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 2:56 AM Flag

    Ok so I made a mistake, the above figures were in CHF, that means that we end up getting 17 million in US dollars.

    Also, the above assumes that the US is lackluster, instead modeling the same rate of growth as seen before we get the US to another 30 million additional, putting total revenue for the us to 310 million for the year, and rest of world to 224 million, and that makes us at 534 million for the year.
    If that is the case, IMGN revenue increases to 18.1 million US dollars for the year.

  • Reply to

    My analysis of roche Kadcyla sales.

    by mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 2:48 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 24, 2014 2:52 AM Flag

    Ok so I ran out of space in the above post, and let's do some royalty tiers:
    In the us, we have 3%*250million +3.5%*33 million= 8.7 million
    Rest of world 3%*224=6.72 million
    IMGN will therefore get 15.43 million in revenue for the full 2014 year.

  • On april 26, i posted a page about the expected Kadcyla sales. here's my updated analysis.
    1) The royalty structure for IMGN is based on a US and Rest-of-world tiered structure. 3% up to 250million, 3.5% from 250 to 400 million, 4% from 400 to 700 million in sales, and 5% above 700million.
    All numbers below are in CHF, the exchange rate is 1.11 dollars per CHF.

    In the US, sales for the half were 143 million, however, since they were 73 for last quarter that means sales for the latest quarter are down to 70 million. THATS BAD IF ITS TRUE.

    In Europe, sales for the half were 63, meaning Q1 was 25 and Q2 was 38. That's good, it's high growth.

    In Japan, sales went from 0 last quarter to 9 this quarter, expect good growth in japan but remember they can't sell the treatment for more than 3000 dollars, compared to way higher in the US.

    Internationally, sales for the half were 8 million, since they were Q1 4 million that leaves us with a doubling to 8 million.

    If the US remains lackluster, we will pull in another 140 for the year total, putting us at 280 for the USA.
    For the rest of the world, we got 84 million for the first half and I would make the assumption that japan will have a rapid adoption to about 30 million for the half, europe to 90 million, and international to 20 million in the back half of the year. If I recall correctly, roche might be calling this previous quarter "Q2 2014" whereas IMGN calls it Q1 2015. So in the back half of 2014 for the rest of the world, we sum to 30+90+20=140 million, and if you add in the US 140 million lackluster sales, 280 million total for all the world.

    So let's get some totals to figure out what royalties we might get then.
    In the US, first half of the year is 143MM, second half of the year is (if lackluster) 140, then total of 283 Million.
    Rest of world: 84 million for the first half of the year, and a predicted 140 million for the second half of the year, for a total of 224 million.

  • Reply to

    I'm feeling a good vibe somehow

    by slumdawg2011 Jul 18, 2014 12:34 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 18, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I'm in agreement on the IMGN share price. Seems like in the darkest hour (touching all time lows) there was a good amount of strength. I assumed when we hit 10.68 we'd gap down to 10.25 and when we didn't i picked up 3k shares. I sold them at 11.3 this morning but then bought them back and more at 11.45. I think most retail investors have been flushed as virtually everyone here is sitting on huge losses unless they were short. (18 dollars down to 11??).
    I think we have a few good things to come this summer- the IBB will reverse and the rising tide will lift all biotech ships.
    If legislation proposed by mccain etc passes allowing a tax holiday on money earned world wide, i think we will see it applied to acquisitions.
    The BT-062 buy in. Data from that appears amazing.

    I am more or less apathetic about the kadcyla sales. We got like 250 million last year, and we might see 500 million this year? I don't really know and won't until the roche meeting on july 24th. I think the only catalyst here is if there is expanded kadcyla labels and possibly first line treatment, otherwise the best we get is like 10 million. When revenues come up over 20 million, wake me up.

    What did you mean by monetizing the revenue stream? What is being proposed????

    I am against a split of Ukraine, just based on the fact that I don't want putin to get a win out of this. If he gets something, i think he might want more rather than be appeased.

    By the way, on today's volume: i think a lot of people were short and looking for a big drop from the world wide action and didn't get it- they haven't closed because volume hasn't been high enough. I'm thinking a bit of a squeeze if we get some more neutral or upward action.

  • Reply to

    revenue from ovarian orphan drug status from FDA?

    by my_daddie Jul 15, 2014 3:29 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 17, 2014 5:47 PM Flag

    investor village, excuse me. Not hub.

  • Reply to

    revenue from ovarian orphan drug status from FDA?

    by my_daddie Jul 15, 2014 3:29 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 17, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Have you seen the response from carol in investors relations posted on IH? You have got to be kidding me. How can she say "oh the FDA made a nice announcement"? Either completely incompetent PR department or there's a reason they aren't pumping this. I'm inclined to believe the former, as I've never seen them really advertise anything.

  • Reply to

    Day 21 of the MS headline on Yahoo

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 15, 2014 9:42 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 15, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Do you really think that they listen? I'd just be amazed if someone sent them an email "hey Roche, you should check out IMGN! It's undervalued, yo." Unless you know people personally at the company...

  • Reply to

    SGEN now almost 5x IMGN

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 3, 2014 12:04 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 3, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    I must admit I'm thinking the same thing. I am wondering when institutions decide to pull the plug and cash out, I'd rather get out with 11 dollars than 9 dollars.

  • Reply to

    Stock just can't move up

    by bernwhenz_jr Jul 3, 2014 12:57 PM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 3, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    It's hard to call yesterday's news bad. AMGN drug is for Ph- patients, Ariad drug is for Ph+ patients.

  • mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 2, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    Other than the fact that these are both stocks with 4 letters in their ticker names, and they were both down at one point, there is no similarity.

  • mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 1, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    and it looks like he was majorly spot on...

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley report

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 1, 2014 8:59 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 1, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    I agree for the most part. Really they just need one every few years to work, and I think that will be biotest this year. 15 million will get them the opt in, and then its a matter of partnering the rest of their stuff so it doesn't hemorrhage while they try to get cash from their two main plays, kadcyla and bt-062.

  • Reply to

    Morgan Stanley report

    by bioimmunomabman Jul 1, 2014 8:59 AM
    mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Jul 1, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Where can i find this report? I've tried googling the author and morgan stanley but haven't found it yet.

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