I am just reading through the presentation now, and it seems all good this time- no dropping the ball or anything. They have a lot of stuff in the pipeline, and it doesn't seem like they need more than one or two other kadcyla-like successes to justify a 25 dollar price.
I think we saw a lot of buying pressure as hedgie's grabbed a position, and this past day or two they have laid off the purchases. In fact, volume today was a mere 700k when the average is about a million. I don't think it will be that hard to move up through the 14's again.
the time premium for the at the money july contracts seemed a little high- 2.25. However, rather than risk buying stock at this point I started building a july position. Less capital outlay than stock, plus, if that large purchase of dec contracts (4000+) is any indication of a move north of 16 in the coming month, I can hedge out this by selling july 20 contracts. Hope you all got a chance to add on the dip, I felt like the fear of a presentation doesn't trump the good biotest and sar data of the past 2 weeks.
I see about 3 usually each day, the most is 4 to 5.
It's actually 8 different trades, spaced across a good time frame, each of 100-500 shares. In other words, it's not one guy who fat fingered it with a market order.
I tried to get shares in the AM premarket but could only get a partial fill at 13.00. What a nice rebound this is. Are we attributing it to the novartis deal or just to the fact that this stock moves far in one direction, then far and fast in the other?
Well, it looks like the biotech sell off is mostly finished. Across the board in my biotechs i saw green, usually 4-7% per stock. I think we now get to start the train ride up again. I loaded up with 10 strike and 11 strike options yesterday and the day before, so here's to hoping that we get a nice 3 dollar drive up. We have money in the bank from the secondary, and a news report saying that the competitor's drug isn't as good as ours, so it seems likely that we'll touch 15 again in the near term.
so you grabbed 5k at an average price of 13.30? I don't know why you said that the offering was done at 14.5, but that seems like a big mistake to make. It will be done at 13, on november 12, so we have a few days of sub 13 before we might get any relief.
They will be selling 3-4 billion in 5 years, not next year. Sales increased from 60 to 80 million/quarter, that's a total of 0.25 billion, with an increase of 25% quarter over quarter. If one were to extrapolate we might be selling 150 million per quarter, or 0.6 billion, next year. Not the 3 billion that people talk about. Revenue at 3% of 0.6 (and not using the 3.5% tiered increase because that would be 600 million from different parts of the world) means that we get 18 million. That's piddly squat.
I completely disagree. The closing of 901 should have been combined with a press release about how 901 is different from the rest in its design, and how the remaining pipeline focuses on a different technology.
I don't see this as a great buying opportunity- too many large firms dumped hard here, and they aren't buying in any time soon. I also don't trust the management at this company any more, and the moment that one of them sells shares next time I will be selling off 5% of my IMGN just in case. You can argue that they are on a set schedule, but the press releases aren't- they just time the press releases for the day after one of them dumps. The moment i can lighten up how much I have in this stock at a reasonable price, i'll be moving on. I'd rather be in one where the Investor relations and ceo pay attention to the stock holders, not take advantage of them.
Wow, you have got to be kidding. This company gives the shareholders no love at all. I have half a mind to dump this stock just because they could care less, but in my opinion the technology is too good.
If I were a large institution, not crede, that had a stake in NAVB, I would not want to see Crede walk away with such a lucrative deal. In fact, I would then look at the 2.00 price of NAVB and decide to buy enough shares to bring that price back up to a reasonable 2.50 or 3.00.
that: 1) eliminates the advantage crede gets from the warrants
2) means that Crede just took a 5 million dollar loss on buying shares at 2.84 and selling them on the market for an average of like 2.40.
I don't see how it's guaranteed that crede can keep the price at 2.00 for 6 months-at some point, if a large buyer appears, they're screwed.
I heard the conference all, though it was at 5am my time and I was a bit sleepy. I am leery of the new dosing... how do we know that fat people need to be underdosed and skinny people need to be over dosed? Hopefully they've looked at the toxicity and seen that it is occurring in the fat people currently.
I am impressed that revenue is now 70 million per year. Too bad 10 million is only coming from kadcyla- I can't wait till we bump up to the 4% tier, then we'd start to make some good money. Even if sales are 400M, we get a mere 16 million.
Sounds like R and D costs are cyclically down because they didn't have to buy any AB right now, but when they have to make another purchase expect that number to rise.
Hmm that's all from memory.
I don't think we'll see a pop, but i expect it to gain 10-20 cents per day for the next few weeks till we're floating in the 19 range.
Thanks for sending that to the PR department. Maybe I've forgotten, but are we up for consideration for CHMP approval tomorrow or did we get that last month?