WOW again, 979,000 shares transacted in "market to close" order. Could be positive! I like that it went for 12.01 rather than 11.99, since there was clearly fighting in the last 3 min between a 35000 buy order and a 20,000 sell order at 11.99 and 12.00
Looks like we attempted to break out above the ~12.20 top that has been resistance for a while. I personally am glad to see us sitting at 12.06 now and catching our breath. I think there are a TON of people who feel trapped and want out, and they are happy to sell now at 12.20, but if we break through that point we'll start to see sellers vanish and more steady hands remain in the stock.
Premium is so crummy right now for the forward two months that i don't see it worth writing the calls. I'm losing money on this belief, but as we flirt with the 50 day average, i think we might be pulling in short term traders and stabilizing the price on the dips higher. I won't write calls now because i think we risk a 1-2 dollar move up quickly, from 12 to 13 that would occur in 1 week. I'll sell the calls after.
I'm hanging my hat on 100 million in revenue for the year. That sounds really nice and I hope that it comes true. Along with BT062 and Marianne, and the stock making the bottom of what I hope to be a V, now seems like a poor time to sell. If you're concerned about the long term implications, you might as well get out at the end of the year, but not too soon. IMO.
wow i came to this board twice today and found it full of useless posts, then i did what you suggested and boom! all the posts are gone.
Seems like we are all just holding our collective breaths here. This move over the 50 day will prob bring in some traders, and give life to this stock again. It just becomes a question of whether this rally is "real" or if we'll hit 14 and then fall to 12 again. I actually see 16 as a potential year end target now.
I've got a long position, but I'm amazed at how incorrect you are here. Every week the price is lower than the week before. The 52 week low is 1.53 and we're sitting here at 1.77. Every day is an opportunity for them to cover, and i doubt that they feel trapped at all for the same reason that I feel like investing in ECTE was a horrible decision to begin with: there is no competent management and the company is hemorrhaging money.
The only way they would be trapped is if the price was rising and each time a short seller tried to cover, it would push the price up. That is certainly not the case as each day the price ends on a lower note. They prob can cover the full daily volume here, as I don't think anyone else wants to buy this.
here's a link to the 8k, i was wrong and it wasn't filed today. However, the fact remains that Junius is not selling all his shares immediately. In the preceding paragraphs, he does dispose of 35000 options, but in this paragraph he keeps 62000 options.
not released today, my bad. Released jun 24th but came up today in a search for some reason. Still seems good.
8k released today says:
In addition to the foregoing transactions, Mr., Junius has informed the Company that he intends to exercise up to 62,384 additional options to purchase the Company's common stock prior to their expiration on May 9, 2015, and to retain ownership of the shares received upon such exercise.
I was like WHAT?????? He's gonna keep those shares!?!?!?!?!??!?! The time is nigh! Load up, Junius is keeping his shares!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(kinda a joke. kinda not.)
Yeah, nothing new of substance, they reiterated the 100 million revenue and emphasized how that is different from other companies, and they said that the Kadcyla deal revenue percent was a starting point and now they are getting more credit and getting higher % royalties from others.
Monetizing COULD be a bad idea, but it could also be a good idea. We know they will last through 2015 without a capital raise, and at the end of 2015 (which ends in july 2015) they will have 60 million.
Let's say they wait to hear from Marianne, then they monetize in feb of next year with one more indication. They monetize have the revenue in return for several hundred million up front. 300 million? Now they don't have to do a capital raise for a while, the stock trends upward, hits 16-18 and they can do a capital raise then at a price that is more advantageous than this crummy 11 dollars per share.
Thanks for the explanation, so essentially it's just giving away future revenue for an upfront payment to avoid having to sell shares. With the number of other indications that Kadcyla could be used for, the purchaser of that revenue stream could be very lucky.