Agreed there's currently no momentum -- that can quickly and easily change -- but negative earnings??? For the year ended last week, EPS of approximately $0.62 is expected (will be four consecutive quarters of rapidly growing EPS) and that's expected to grow by over 70% next fiscal year to $1.06 (which I think will prove to be overly conservative). It's the rapid earnings growth that has caused this to approximately double over the past year.
This is just my personal opinion and could obviously be wrong but I think CIEN has just about hit bottom and is probably an excellent entry point -- $23 has been tested a couple of times and held. The Oct quarter just ended was likely very strong and 2014 should be very strong. Only minor concern is with Jan quarter guidance that will be given with Oct results. They've already said that the don't expect the big "budget flush" that the telecom industry often experiences at year end so think they're being conservative. They are absolutely on a roll right now. Oct results will also include annual backlog number which should be up huge. CIEN's price performance will have a lot to do with broader market performance -- if we get an ugly sell-off, high beta stocks like CIEN will get hit disproportionately -- but if we don't, I would be surprised if CIEN doesn't see $30s this year (assumes guidance is good) and possibly $40s next year. Love MU as a company but hate investing in commodity producers and memory is basically a commodity. Might want to think about spreading your investment over both.
JDSU had a very good quarter but gave very weak guidance. Their optical products division did very well but that may not be enough to offset weak guidance. CIEN likely down again tomorrow.
When a stock is down big, there is usually a better reason than "the shorts are manipulating". Do you think it has anything to do with Calix and Cyan giving poor guidance. With a high-beta stock it doesn't take much for the fast money to bail.
I love Ciena as an investment but was also fortunate to get in at the $12-$14 range. I still own and think $30s are a good possibility -- right market, right time with best products. However, there is a lot of fast money in this stock so quite volatile. Doesn't take much to knock it down 10%+ as we're seeing. Their quarter ending tomorrow should be very strong but won't be announced for another month or so. JDSU announces after the close today. A good report from them -- which I do expect -- will give CIEN a boost tomorrow (at least that's what I'm hoping for). If JDSU is bad, this sell-off will continue. Don't think that will happen. JDSU has had mediocre earnings for the past few quarters. Think that today will be the first time in a long time that they start to show some strength in results and guidance.
Much/most of their short interest is due to the large amount of convertible debt they have outstanding. Institutional convertible debt buyers will buy the convertible bonds and short the stock to create a hedged position. They then hope to make money off the volatility in the stock. It's technical in nature but most all companies with significant convertible debt will have a high % of short interest. Those technical convertible buyers don't care if the stock goes up or down as long as long as it's moving.
Just today, all of my shares that Fidelity loans out were returned. I'm assuming that these shares were covered on Friday and just getting notified now. The number of shares loaned out has gone up and down over the past six months but this is the first time that the number is zero. Maybe a good sign???
Highly unlikely. You only announce early when you've materially missed the guidance you've given (rule of thumb +/- 10% or more from the low or high end of guidance) and you need to do it as soon as you have the estimated results available. Usually more important to get bad news out early rather than good but most lawyers would advise doing it on both. Most professionally run companies will pre-announce within two weeks (or less) of a quarter's end (hence, as soon as estimates are available). The longer you wait the more liability you expose the company to (I wonder if they figured that out with all the lawsuits lining up). Long way of saying that if they had badly missed this quarter then they should have already pre-announced. But I also said "most professionally run companies", not yet sure if these guys fall into that category. Hopefully, all will be quite until Nov. 8.
yeah, all you can do is laugh when you see stuff like that. We're pennies away from the all-time low and somehow the shorts are desperate. I can't imagine that he/she really believes it but who knows.
Where do you come up with this stuff? I'm long and scared shitless by these clowns. They haven't yet proven they can run this company -- hopefully they will. I really don't think the shorts are desperate, do you?
Keep in mind, that is what Fidelity is paying me not the total cost to barrow. They keep about half. If I tried to short now, Fidelity site says annual % rate is 7.5%.
Yeah, cost to barrow is dropping fast. Fidelity was paying me 14.5% to loan out my shares as little as six weeks ago. Rate got dropped again yesterday to 4%.
Their Q3 revenues were $142. They guided Q4 to a range of $130 -- $140. Said they do not expect to see a "budget flush" this year as is often typical in this industry.
It may be technical now but the initial move was caused by Infinera guiding its Q4 revenue to a range below its Q3 that they announced last night. Market was expecting a stronger Q4 -- and I think we'll still see that with CIEN -- but we're down with them for now.
They clearly need to improve their operations -- this we all know. If Johnsrud wants more direct accountability, make each basin division head the effective COO of that division and have them report directly to him and not someone in between. It's not possible for them to have a "killer" quarter this quarter -- they already blew that when they lowered second half guidance. How they improve things going forward is the critical question. Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction so that they can start to report "killer" quarters next year. Who knows, I certainly don't but fixing their problems will be a multi-quarter endeavor. Hopefully this is a step in the right direction and a meaningful reduction in G&A expenses.
Reading the full press release, it seems like a reasonable move to make -- break the shale division into three geographic groups covering each of the major basins. Each group head reports directly to Johnsrud and not a COO. Wouldn't expect much of a reaction to this either way. We'll see.
I have no idea if they will write down the value of the TFI assets -- and I don't really care that much. It's obviously not a good thing but larger, institutional investors are concerned with the future outlook and not with GAAP accounting procedures. If they announced a strong quarter with positive future guidance, a TFI write down shouldn't be much of a concern. Finally, the company gives guidance to revenues and EBITDA and not to EPS. The analysts use their own assumptions to get down to the EPS.