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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

metropath 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2014 3:52 PM Member since: Dec 27, 1998
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  • Bone pain in mCRPC patients is beyond description. If you scale pain from 1 to 10, labor pain and bone pain are both on 10. Labor pain comes with delivery but also go after delivery. But bone pain in mCRPC is persistent and will not go away. Heavy dose of narcotics comes with side effects including drowsiness.

    Cabo can significantly decrease the bone pain with it's bone effects, and this is very important in terminal stage mCRPC patients when you try to improve the quality of life in their final precious 10 to 12 months. Cabo can lead patients to perform normal daily activities like taking a shower, sit down and have a cup of coffee in the morning, and write a letter or e-mail to their love ones...........

    Even Cabo shows OS advantage as little as 2 months, most oncologists and urologists will immediately jump on Cabo because the quality of life in their terminal stage is crucial.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cabo has very high response rate on ALK type NSCLC (greater than 75%). unfortunately this mutation prevalence is only 2% of total NSCLC.

    On the other hand, EGFR mutation prevalence is about 50-55% of total NSCLC (80% patients are Asians, especially female, and non-smokers), and the treatment of choice is either Tarceva (Erlotinib by Roche, 82% predicted response rate) or Gefitinib (72% predicted response rate). In this patient population, many have been diagnosed at late stage (locally advanced/stage 4) and Tarceva becomes the first line.

    Tarceva has a very good initial clinical response rate, but these tumors typically pop back and become resistance in less than a year. Roche has been trying very hard with different combos for this issue, and their METs just didn't work and they terminated these trials. Now we see a recent study conducted in California state (because of the Asian population) with very encouraging result when combing Cabo and Tarceva.

    What will you do if you are the CEO of Roche if you want to dominate the global market of NSCLC (40% of EGFR-M are Asians)? plus the Cobi with melanoma trial. Will you just sit there and do nothing?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Jul 22, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    "...Patients with sensitizing EGFR mutations respond well to EGFR-targeted therapy, but following clinical response, they typically experience disease progression and secondary resistance..."
    I have not doubt in my mind that Tarceva (Eriotinib) like any other targeted therapy does not even close to "cure" EGFR positive locally advanced/stage 4 NSCLC patients. Typically 9 months after Tarceva these tumors just pop back and become resistance.
    Now they come up with combination of Traceva and Cabo to begin with, and this combo shows better results than Tarceva alone for first line. Does this sound familiar, Abi and Cabo combo? Now I really think that Roche.is coming!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PCF Scientific Retreat October 2014

    by wilderguide Aug 14, 2014 6:29 PM
    metropath metropath Aug 14, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    great!
    among these 7 drugs, Cabo will be the only drug treating most urogenital advanced cancers; prostate, kidney, bladder, and ovary.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    COMET-1 data today or tomorrow?

    by ville_9 Jul 29, 2014 1:22 PM
    metropath metropath Jul 29, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    It could be mid October, couple of months from now. .Most longs here think the results will be good, traders are not so sure, and shorts are very negative about the COMET outcome. :-).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Aug 17, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Sorry I did not specify this trial is for mCRPC. I went to healingwelldotcom this afternoon to follow up few Cabo treated patients. This trial comes up in recent post. I am very excited about this because of this trial put Cabo in chemo stage. This is very interesting and means a lot to Cabo. Now we have Cabo in pre-chemo, chemo and post chemo, all three stages.
    Another note I have from this site: one post chemo patient with brain/lung/bone mets had Cabo (40 mg) for straight 8 months (5/13 to 2/14) and then switch to xofilo/xtandi with little effects and died in 5/14. If this gentleman was the latest patient in COMET-1 trial, then we will not be able to reach the data until late Sept/Oct. This patient had witness the dramatic and immediate bone pain effect and had very much improvement of his quality of life with the help of Cabo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Aug 9, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    "TAS-115: a dual inhibitor of hepatocyte and vascular endothelial growth factor receptors, suppressed prostate cancer cell proliferation and osteoclast differentiation following bone resportion. Additionally, the combination of hepatocyte growth factor receptor gene expression signature and hepatocyte growth factor may represent a promising therapeutic biomarker for TAS-115. Taiho is developing TAS-115 as a potential treatment for solid tumors, and a Phase I study is underway." from Taiho Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (HQ: Tokyo).
    Up to 7/31/2014, there was not any trial for TAS-115 from my search and company's news release. This is likely the first trial for TAS-115. Cabo is still way ahead of TAS-115 , and the Cabo/ Tarceva combo therapy is holding strong IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Abnormal or what?

    by enabeler Jun 20, 2014 12:01 PM
    metropath metropath Jun 20, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    it is unusual, I guess that was between funds exchanged at 3.64. Have a nice and safe trip!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution, funding

    by ulingt Aug 1, 2014 7:36 AM
    metropath metropath Aug 1, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    if Roche is going to take over EXEL, what is the dilution or funding for? Did you ever count how many times Roche has been mentioned in cc? Do you ever notice that even MMM has to confess during the cc that he has no idea or details about Roche's aggressively working on EXEL's Cabo and Cobi combo projects? How many more clues do I need to figure these out?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Jul 16, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    I have long position, and I also trade non-core position so that I can average down my cost. But right now I stay put and hold all my shares waiting for COMET1.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It becomes very interest to see how much impact of the recent Cobi announcement weighting on PPS. This coming two days will tell us where is the range, ?4, ?3.8, or ?4.2, before COMET-1 result.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Highlights from Roche quarterly report

    by wildbiftek Jul 25, 2014 11:35 AM
    metropath metropath Jul 25, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    This is great news for Cabo. They tried to cook their own MET with Tarceva and now is terminated. I am getting excited that another promising trial for NSCLC with combo of Cabo and Tarceva. This is really adding fuel for the rumor of Roche's take over EXEL. For the worldwide market plus bone effects on metastatic lung cancer to bone, Roche now has to put much more on the table for bid. We have not yet count the value of COMET1 and 2 if success.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what i think is this...

    by cocofromafrica101 Jul 30, 2014 8:41 PM
    metropath metropath Jul 31, 2014 12:16 AM Flag

    outstanding job!! coco from africa, thanks very much..
    I would also like to quote a research (analyzed by Fred Rockwell, CFA, July 17, 2014) about the price of acquisition: "If the cabo prostate trials have poor results and the stock price dips, then the timing would be good for Roche to purchase EXEL. After including the premium, the buyout price would likely be in the neighborhood of $3-$5. At the very least this provides a solid floor to the investment. There are many other suitors that could realize synergies by purchasing EXEL as well. It all depends on the price and expectations around trial results".
    It looks pretty safe at this PPS level for longs even COMET should fail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • what's going on?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Jun 27, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    As far as I recall, Ernie might have said 70% of success on CMET-1, almost certain for CMET-2. He was more comfortable with lung, RCC and HCC. and he was not a fan of combo therapy (Cabo+abi). He was also positive for Cobi future. In most recent post, he expressed that Cabo will be in unique market position if CMET-1 should success the trial. As long as there is no cure for CRPC, these terminal stage patients with bone mets will need Cabo for their last fights.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Jul 18, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Could you please explain why PPS will jump if COMET-1 should come out negative?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • To me this is a big deal. Patients with CRPC eventually suffer bone mets (almost all) and 25% with liver mets.
    Dr. Posadas made a good point and it is very exciting to see this kind of dramatic effect on patients with liver mets (87.5% patients with disease stabilization and 12.5% with tumor regression/partial response). This impressive number is very close to Cabo on bone effect! For terminal stage CRPC patients with liver mets, have we ever heard any other therapy with this response before? This is huge! Another COMET 3 for completion?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath metropath Jul 15, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    me to, I am high school drop out and make living on post message on Yahoo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • metropath by metropath Jul 29, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Exelixis shares rallied on Roche rumors, says Piper Jaffray
    Piper Jaffray says shares of Exelixis (EXEL) have rallied on speculation the company could be an acquisition candidate for partner Roche (RHHBY).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two possible scenarios for EXEL going forward

    by stoptrolling Aug 18, 2014 3:30 PM
    metropath metropath Aug 18, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    If we still have no news for COMET-1 after October, then we may be able to see 6 before the result.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
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