By year end near Christmas CLVS may drop to 10-12 PPS, not in the near future.
Acetolion put 2.5 B on the table 8 weeks ago for ZS. Montana Stanly called ZC-9 is the best in it's class after FDS approved RPLY' Veltassa with black box warming.
enabeler, this is a good one. This dude will not be able to answer your question because that is the last post, unless he fall into your trap.
Unlike RCC, patients with HCC diagnosis have an average of 6 months without treatment. The only FDA approved Sorafenib (TKI) gets extra 2.3 months OS. Nivo in phase 1 trial demonstrated 12 month OS in 62% (total 47 patients). Oncolytic virotherapy (JX-594) has 9 months median OS. If Cabo can also demonstrate similar post PD-1 TKI efficacy in RCC, EXEL's PPS will be much high than 12.
My first position was 4 PS (50% drop right after 2011 secondary) and I was not very comfortable even with 66% discount from recent high. My main concern was that one big name urologist who was also involved Xtandi studies spokes out in one 2012 Onco Live program about his own experience of no OS benefit of Cabo on mCRPC patients. My excuse at that time was that his own personal experience may not speak for everyone and he was one of principal investigators for Xtandi/MDVN. Unfortunately I was wrong.
Back to 2011, high hope was around mCRPC bone effects. If Cabo had demonstrated prolonged OS with bone effects in COMET studies, EXEL could very well perform as good or even better than MDVN.(now 50) if you count other indications as well (melanoma for Cobi, Cabo for RCC, HCC, NSCLC and MTC).