navin_r_johnson, the estimated primary completion date is October (final data collection date for primary outcome measure) and the estimated study completion date is November, 2014. We should have additional PR's leading up to this regarding pediatric and Fragile X studies. Sit back and relax. Modestly positive results is at least a 3 bagger from these levels. Great results is a $1-$2 billion market cap.(SP $75-$150). There is much greater than 50% chance of success, probably 75-80%.
The SP is dropping on very little volume and no news. Fear is a great motivator, but the fundamentals of this company are unchanged. Good results and patience will be rewarded. Any institutional interest and we are back in the 20's. Share price seems cheap given the risk/reward ratio. GLTA
axb7092, I don't get the big deal about selling a couple million shares...so what... 5% dilution. If they need the money until profitable, than so be it. The other printer companies will be coming over soon enough. Printer revenue alone in 2018 will be over $40 million if it is true that HP will be converting all their printers. These prices are a gift to longs.
Charless, The market and the FDA are begging for an ADHD drug that is statistically effective, non addictive, and has few side effects. There are currently no such drug therapies on the market today. Therefore, the FDA will approve ADHD's drug with even marginal benefit, imo, because of the need for better ADHD therapies. If phase 3 trials demonstrate benefit comparable to the more addictive drugs, ADHD will be an overnight blockbuster. ALL new scripts will be written for it and only those addicted will wish to stay on current therapy.
Vinny, I believe that it is fear running this market, not shorts' greed. The overall market is causing some minor panic and I believe some longs are pulling out, not because of anything negative about Neon, but because longs are pulling out of all stocks. The shorts win in a market downturn, no matter what they are shorting. The MFers would probably enjoy a US recession, as long as they personally benefitted. It's just the way things are these days and a sign of the times.
Short interest as of 3/31 is now 10,273,022, up over 600k shares from 3/15......Wow, I was expecting it to start coming down. I just don't get it. I guess shorts are looking at low q1 revenues and maybe a small secondary, which should be expected and is no big deal, IMO. Watch them start making a mountain out of a molehill.
Enrollment should conclude shortly. This should prompt an announcement. We may even get an update about phase II studies for Pediatric ADHD application or Fragile X.
Bodeebo, It's good to see you here. What's your take on the market? I always appreciate your candor.
I am embarrassed to say that I need to buy out a business partner shortly, so I sold my Neon position after the q1 earnings announcement at $6.9. I thought Neon would be stagnant for a while and saw a potential opportunity elsewhere. The embarrassing part is that this short term "opportunity" was a biotech stock, and they subsequently have all gotten hammered (even more than Neon). My expectation was to flip the biotech stock, use some of the proceeds for my buyout and then get back into Neon. Oh well!
I listened to the recent investor conference and was about ready to remortgage the house to buy back in. It makes me highly optimistic for Neon's future, but I am a little concerned that the present punishing market will not look kindly on another small financing. I wish they had sold 5 million shares back in September to take this issue off the table. The printers and new e-reader revenues will not meaningfully kick in until q3 at least, so it will be a close one. What's your take? Thanks
I realize that Biotechs are getting slaughtered, but ADHD is in the midst of a short phase 3 study for a potential blockbuster application. To make things better, there is currently a lot of bad press for the stimulant treatments (the competition)...addiction, BMI rebound (obesity) for adolescents after discontinuation, lack of tolerance, etc.. There is only 1 nonstimulant on the market, which takes forever to take effect. This drug could absolutely take over the market if phase 3 shows efficacy similar to stimulants. I believe the FDA will approve it even with modest positive data due to it's relative safety, but strong data will be a true blockbuster (10 bagger in a buyout). This data will be available within 6 months!
I would like to see a small study in Alzheimer's patients, as this is an application that dwarfs ADHD.
wc.farwell...so you have a Samsung? U think the pay is much higher in Korea?
In another generation, who will be better off?...the children of the Chinese presently working for peanuts or the children of Americans getting more than peanuts sitting at home not working?
Bystedt did sell last Sep't. I thought that these were the shares involved with the loan. He has a ton of shares. I am just saying that it is completely unknown why he is selling. The loan issue is personal. Maybe he has other personal issues.
I agree that some of their announced projects have "fallen off" so that they did not reach profitability when expected. If you don't believe in management credibility, then short away. If you do believe that these deals or even some of them will come to fruition, then go long as the company will eventually do quite well. It's a simple as that. Neither side can prove what they do not know, so misleading comments on this board are clearly for one's "personal" benefit only.
Richard_x_roe. None of us know what personal issues Mr. Bystedt is dealing with that requires him to sell his shares. It is pure speculation. If you are shorting, then you can make up all sorts of negative fiction about Neonode. Everyone should understand, though, that it is pure speculation/fiction..... Maybe Bystedt gambles. Maybe he is going through a divorce. Maybe he is starting a new company. Maybe he lives "high on the hog".....Maybe, maybe, maybe. Regardless, he still owns 2.5-3 million shares. So if he believed that Neon was in trouble, wouldn't he try to dump a lot more if not all his shares? It seems that most of his personal assets are tied up in Neonode, so why not sell some now and enjoy a higher standard of living while Neon does it's thing over the next few years.
With regards to Neonode, shorts make a big deal about the company selling a million or so shares. This is insignificant dilution, yet the liquidity is important until the company reaches profitability. Burn rate is minimal. I wish they sold 5 million shares last year so that the issue would have been put to rest...JMHO
Vinny, I agree with you. It seems these deals take longer to come to fruition than expected. It also appears that Amazon is back in the picture. This, combined with the printers, should make us profitable by year's end, with diminishing losses in q3 and maybe q2 if the printers show up on shelves. Selling another million shares is no big deal. As I said before, they should have sold 5 million shares last year and took the issue off the table. White goods was absent from the discussion, as was the Korean Tier 1 companies.
I personally believe that Neonode will be a beast one day. GLTA.
Hey Doc, IMO, we may drift a little, but I would expect institutions to maintain interest. The printers should be coming out and hitting the shelves soon. That will singularly be our greatest accomplishment and at the same time send the shorts packing. They will no longer be able to weave tall tales.
van, It seems that people have high expectations for this quarter. I did, based upon guidance, but have been keeping a keen eye for evidence of products out there with IR touch...there aren't any except for kids tablets and e-readers and some Volvos. Therefore, my projections and optimism are delayed by a quarter or 2. I expect that this will give the pessimists and shorts some fodder. GLTA, the CC will be key.
Vinny, I take that back. Sometimes Neonode gets advances, but does not record this money as revenue until product is sold and the royalty fee is assessed. I believe they stated this in a prior CC to explain some money on the balance sheet.
vinny, they do not get paid or show the revenue until product is sold...not when booked like some other business models....so no printer revenue until the old printers are sold and the pipeline is filled with IR printers. My guess is q2, 2014 for early printer revenues.
I am sticking my neck out and guessing $1.8-$2.0 million in revenues. I expect total expenses to increase from ~$4 mil quarterly run rate to $4.5-$5 million for the quarter due to increased costs associated with development and ramp. This leads to a loss of ~$3 million or ~0.08 cents per share. Anyone else?
g1u2nt, Apple is only in control of Apple, not the auto manufacturers. Apple simply wants connectivity to the infotainment system. Building an entire infotainment system is not so simple, and manufacturers absolutely don't want to limit connectivity just to Apple as Apple is a small % of the cell phone and even smart phone market. So if you have a Samsung, you cant buy a Volvo? The auto manufacturer wants to be cell phone maker agnostic, so that any phone will link. Apple is the one that needs to link to the car, not vice versa.
As far as the touch screen is concerned, Neon's solution has superiority in the automotive space to cap touch using both price and performance metrics.