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Neonode, Inc. Message Board

mfcav01 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 13, 2014 11:24 PM Member since: Dec 15, 2010
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  • Reply to

    selling shares?

    by jrahz11 Sep 13, 2014 2:24 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Sep 13, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    I don't believe that it is under the radar. It is a 1 trick pony with high risk and high reward. IMO, it's 80-90% chance for reward. The unknown for me is the integrity of studies performed in Israel. We will know in 2 weeks, maybe 3.

  • Reply to

    selling shares?

    by jrahz11 Sep 13, 2014 2:24 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Sep 13, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    jrahz, The shelf offering is part of the biotech chess game. It involves covering their bases. ADHD has stated that it wants to sell the company, but not give it away. Once successful phase 3 studies are out, valuation will increase. If ADHD does not reach the valuation that they want, then they will need money to take it to the next level, hence the shelf. At the same time, they are sending a message to big pharma that they can and will develop Metadoxine on their own if necessary. ADHD has accumulated the expertise to do this if necessary. Taking Metadoxine to the next level will also increase valuation, so future dilution would be offset by major increase in market cap By the way, if the phase 3 trial is successful, ADHD SP should acutely jump to over 30 and then gradually increase to 50+....so selling 2 million shares to raise $100 million would not be a big deal considering the leap in market cap that it would bring.

  • Reply to

    Price Target

    by biradamin Sep 12, 2014 1:42 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Sep 12, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    biradamin, ADHD is an Israeli stock, which tends to price lower than US biotechs. If this were a US issue with US phase 2 studies, we would be sitting on a $500 mill. market cap. The phase 2 studies were done in Israel, so some investors only trust US studies. Once the phase 3 study is completed (performed on patients in Israel but mostly US), it will then be "unblinded", and only then can the process of data analysis begin. It is HIGHLY unlikely that anyone knows the results ahead of time. The cognitive differences are too subtle to differentiate prior to unblinding.

    An example of a drug that may be understood prior to unblinding might be a drug vs placebo study for a uniformly lethal infection, disease, or cancer where some study participants are cured. In this case one would assume that the cures were coming from the drug and not the placebo.

    My best guess for initial data announcement is very end of Sep't but more likely early or even mid Oct.

  • Reply to

    ADHD will be blockbuster

    by bgzcle Sep 9, 2014 10:44 AM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Sep 10, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I believe that they will do a head to head study with Strattera, the only other non stimulant drug for adults. Strattera takes 3 months to take effect and has a marginal benefit, yet it still sells something like $800 million per year. MDX studies were designed similar to Strattera's, which obviously obtained FDA approval, so the upcoming studies are considerably more important than the head to head 3b. That being said, so far, studies show that MDX will have superior efficacy, acute onset and preferred safety compared to Strattera. We will find out shortly. GLTA

  • Reply to

    ADHD will be blockbuster

    by bgzcle Sep 9, 2014 10:44 AM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Sep 10, 2014 7:10 AM Flag

    biradamin. From my understanding, comparator studies do not define "pivotal' and in many cases are not even necessary for FDA approval. This study would in fact be considered pivotal. While the FDA may ask for additional studies, this study is adequate for NDA file submission, and additional studies (phase 3b) could be used for marketing and not necessarily for file submission. For example, the data may be approveable in it's current form, but may contain a black box warning like the other ADHD drugs. The FDA may ask for additional studies so that the drug would not have a black box warning. (BTW, the current data is adequate, imo, to avoid a black box warning....I am just using it as an example)

  • Reply to

    Neonode in new Volvo XC90

    by vaxholm2000 Aug 26, 2014 5:38 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Aug 28, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    Vinny, I feel your pain. I am out because of pure dumb luck. I had some financial issues to deal with in March. At the same time, when last year's q4 earnings were announced, I expected Neon to be dead in the water for a while, so I pulled out. Another opportunity came along that I felt strongly about and expected to take off in the short term with the plan of buying back into Neon. In addition, I had a partnership buyout to deal with. At this point, my plan is to wait out results from a phase 3 drug trial in this other stock, and if positive, sell some and get back into Neon. I expect this to happen by mid October.

    I believe that Neon will come out ok. They need to produce income from these deals. I thought that this year would be the breakout year, but it seems the deals take longer than expected. I agree that Neonode is not completely honest about how long these deals take. In addition, they announce the "deals" but fail to announce when the deals fail, which affects investor trust. Investors expect some deals to fail, but expect management to be forthright about it. I agree with most of your posts, but am still more optimistic about Neon's future than you are. I also agree that Neon must make a reasonable profit from each unit and that q4,2014 is "make or break" with current longs in regards to trust.

    BTW, I purchased an HP 8625 printer with Neonode inside. It works great. It is definitely not some old technology like the shorts would suggest. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Fragile X

    by mfcav01 Aug 17, 2014 6:53 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Aug 19, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    Hey Danny, I'm still around. Looking to get back in to Neon but have a couple more ducks that need to line up first. I like Neon and expect it to perform well......eventually!

  • mfcav01 by mfcav01 Aug 18, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    I just listened to the company website video. They make a special note to point out that the dose for Fragile X will be different than the dose for ADHD, allowing for different price points. Alcobra would have a monopoly in the Fragile X treatment, but would compete in the ADHD market. According to the National Fragile X Foundation website, the prevalence of Fragile X in the US population is between 1in 3600 to 1 in 4000 for males and 1 in 4000 to 6000 if females. So for the sake of discussion, I am estimating the incidence on the low side at an overall population prevalence of 1 in 5000. In 2013, the were an estimated 316 million people living in the US, so the estimated number of individuals with Fragile X is 63,200. (316 million divided by 5000)

    If approved, I expect that the therapy would be considerably more expensive than the treatment for ADHD ($7 per day...~$2500 per year) It would be more likely $10k per year or higher. Full market penetration would be $630 million per year by these estimates. If you look at the CDC website under Fragile X, it shows that men, who are affected twice as often as women (because it is sex linked, and men have 1 X chromosome while women have 2), are also more severely affected. Only 9% of men achieve a high or very high degree of independence. What this means is that government now funds through various programs considerable expenses for health care, living expenses, home health aids or full time alternate living situations with 24 hour staffing, etc.. A drug that improves intellectual function will considerably improve these dire statistics, and even though seemingly expensive, would probably pay for itself from a societal perspective....so the Fragile X application, if approved, should provide significant stand alone value for Alcobra.......just my 2 cents...GLTA

  • Reply to

    Fragile X

    by mfcav01 Aug 17, 2014 6:53 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Aug 18, 2014 7:09 AM Flag

    Sorry folks...posted on the wrong board.

  • mfcav01 by mfcav01 Aug 17, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    I just listened to the company website video. They make a special note to point out that the dose for Fragile X will be different than the dose for ADHD, allowing for different price points. Alcobra would have a monopoly in the Fragile X treatment, but would compete in the ADHD market. According to the National Fragile X Foundation website, the prevalence of Fragile X in the US population is between 1in 3600 to 1 in 4000 for males and 1 in 4000 to 6000 if females. So for the sake of discussion, I am estimating the incidence on the low side at an overall population prevalence of 1 in 5000. In 2013, the were an estimated 316 million people living in the US, so the estimated number of individuals with Fragile X is 63,200. (316 million divided by 5000)

    If approved, I expect that the therapy would be considerably more expensive than the treatment for ADHD ($7 per day...~$2500 per year) It would be more likely $10k per year or higher. Full market penetration would be $630 million per year by these estimates. If you look at the CDC website under Fragile X, it shows that men, who are affected twice as often as women (because it is sex linked, and men have 1 X chromosome while women have 2), are also more severely affected. Only 9% of men achieve a high or very high degree of independence. What this means is that government now funds through various programs considerable expenses for health care, living expenses, home health aids or full time alternate living situations with 24 hour staffing, etc.. A drug that improves intellectual function will considerably improve these dire statistics, and even though seemingly expensive, would probably pay for itself from a societal perspective....so the Fragile X application, if approved, should provide significant stand alone value for Alcobra.......just my 2 cents...GLTA

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha ends relationship with Yahoo

    by tpayne1130 Jul 25, 2014 2:44 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Aug 10, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Vinny, I tried to find it as well without success. In addition, I tried to post a comment on Seeking Alpha that Neonode made a complaint and questioned whether perhaps the author was the fraud, not Neonode. They would not post it.

  • mfcav01 by mfcav01 Aug 4, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    Piper Jaffray just initiated coverage of ADHD with an overweight rating with a price target of
    $42. Roth Capital gave a buy rating on 8/1 with a $40 price target. I wonder what price target Piper needs for a buy rating? The data will be out soon enough, so expect some volatility as an announcement of the results gets close. Remember that the phase 3 clinical trial is designed somewhat similar to the stage 2, and that results will be combined. Understand that so far, all drugs for the treatment of ADHD that have had positive data on phase 2 trials have had similar data on their phase 3 trials, and have been approved by the FDA. In addition, assuming that phase 3 results are in line with phase 2, Alcobra's drug is uniquely positioned to gain market share due to it's high efficacy, safety, and rapid speed of onset. . .GLTA

  • Reply to

    New patent...

    by wc.farwell Jul 10, 2014 10:54 AM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Jul 10, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    wc, HP has been and continues to be dominant and the market leader in printers. Maybe you should get with the times?

  • Reply to

    clear

    by g1u2nt Jun 24, 2014 2:58 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Jun 25, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    g1u2nt, I have to call you out on this. Please explain exactly what is inferior about Neon's technology and why do you say so? Have you actually seen it in a newer product such as a Volvo or printer? What aspect of the technology do you find inferior. On paper, it is faster than competitors, works under water, useable with any writing instrument, considerably less expensive, and the only possible drawback is if you use the bezel option, which is cosmetic.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 Jun 25, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    Who said stock very cheap? I am unable to find where insiders are buying...source?

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 Jun 23, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Vinny, I hate to see most anyone lose money, even shorts, but I must admit that I will enjoy cooked chicky!

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 Jun 22, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    chicky_bone...you are the one with all negative posts hiding behind a 3 week old moniker. I'd say you are the spineless one.

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