Roe...So where is the promised equity offering? I'm trying to understand the whole Greece thing as it pertains to Neonode. You have indicated that the Greece issue has prevented Neonode from seeking an equity offering. So, if Neonode if Neonode needs an equity offering because they are out of money as you suggest, how does the Greece issue help them pay their bills? Please explain.
Meanwhile, Volvo has announced more than expected sales of the XC90. Are you now saying that Volvo is lying?
Lastly, Roe, I wish to thank you. You and Edward Cole (from The Bucket List) have given me an idea that I must pass on to mgmt....Infrared White Goods.... No, not appliances, underware!!!!! You and other shorts will need them (to detect soiling) once all the vehicles, printers, PC's, laptops, AIO's and the like come to fruition over coming years. Maybe I should patent the idea? Edward helped with this idea with his comment regarding the 3 things to remember when getting older..."never trust a (barney)"
Takata recalled 34 Million vehicles for airbag issues this year. GM recalled almost 4M vehicles over tailgate ussues in 2004. Honda once recalled almost 4M units over seatbelt issues. As far as I know, people still buy GM vehicles and Hondas, even though the recall was almost 1000 times as many vehicles. Also, this is a minor recall that can be performed at the dealer at the initial 500 mile check up.So again, what is the big deal?
Oh and Richard, just a quick math note...Volvo has presold and sold over 30k XC 90 vehicles thus far (in just a couple months), so 500 vehicles divided by 30k is closer to 1.7%, not 60%.
And just to be clear, Greece is at fault, and you are not lying? So if Neonode has no money like you suggest, the fact that Greece has financial issues has delayed Neonode's need for money? Oh yea, I get that. Could you please repost that bridge that you are selling in Chernobyl...I wish to purchase it. I know it has been a while, so I wish to pay twice as much.
Hey Richard...Wow, Volvo recalled 500 vehicles for an issue unrelated to Neonode's superior touch technology....Absolutely Fing WOW. You got us big time!
This is similar action to when I bought last October. Everyone badmouthing all aspects of the company, especially mgmt., shorts proclaiming victory. I expect we are near bottom. I bought another 5k shares at $3 today. I couldn't resist. RSI is oversold on the daily chart. Unlike others, I am not expecting a big Q2, but there are some unknowns that I am unable to calculate, especially regarding the revenue contribution from the Chinese auto sector.
My take is that the Street will know well in advance of when Neonode becomes cash flow positive, which will result in net buying instead of net selling. So in answer to your question, Mercury, it is probably safer to wait until cash flow positive, but expect to pay more than $3.5 per share, imo.
IMO, Neonode becomes cash flow positive in Q1, 2016, which gets reported in early May, 2016, but reflects products sold in Q4, 2015 but not reported to Neonode until 45 days after OEM's end of Q4. Deep pockets will know by the end of 2015, and the SP should reflect it. As new products go to market such as cars, new e-readers, the long awaited PC/monitor, etc., expect longs to be in full pump mode.
The difference between investing and the Roulette wheel is that you can't perform DD on a spin of the roulette wheel. Also, downside risk can be mitigated in stocks, but roulette is all or none. That being said, if you have the patience to sit back for a few years and save over $100k, then you will probably take the safe route and either wait or diversify your funds....Me?, I'n more of a "no guts, no glory" kind of guy when it comes to Neonode.
Mercury, There are simply too many unknown variables at this time to provide an estimate of future SP, although I have ventured there before. Your friend's friend, the insider, has knowledge that is not public. He has a better understanding of the true magnitude of the projects that Neonode is working on. Will Neonode be in 1M vehicles?, 2M vehicles?, etc. The insider may have a more precise understanding of the timing and size of the PC/AIO/monitor opportunity. Next, once profitable, what PE will the market give to Neonode?
So, let's assume that in 2 years that Neonode is in 30M printers per year at $0.5 per device ($15M), 3M vehicles/year at $4 per vehicle. ($12M,), 2M laptops?AIOs/monitors at $4 per unit. ($8M), continued $0.5M quarterly Engineering fees....$2M/yr, E-readers. ($4M/year). So we have conservative yearly revenues of $41M or $0.5 per share. At a 20 PE multiple, SP is ~10.
Insiders may be privy to broader adoption of Neonode in the PC space. With 300M units sold per year, broad adoption of say 10% market share (30M units), and our revenue increases by over $100M (@$4 per device). If you give it a 20 PE multiple, then we are looking at a SP of over $100 per share. The same goes for the Automotive sector. GM plans to eventually have touch in ALL vehicles (10M per year). If IR touch is broadly adopted in the automotive space, where it has clear advantages over Capacitive, then revenues can be substantial.
Insiders may know whether Neonode will be used elsewhere in vehicles such as button replacement. These figures do not take into consideration the steering wheel opportunity at up to $20 per device.
In summary, I believe that Neonode is looking at a triple within 2 years, to be conservative, and possibly much higher IF broad adoption of IR tech occurs.....something that your friend's friend may be privy to but unable to discuss.
Bo, the author is a knowledgeable biotech guy, but the same principles apply to all microcaps...It's like the wild wild west, but without a sheriff in town.
If anyone wants to learn how emerging stocks are manipulated, simply google "Smith on Stocks". He wrote an excellent piece on June 16 regarding illegal naked shorting.
Interesting, using the gurufocus site, it indicates that institutional ownership is 36%, but down below it is the list of funds and #shares owned. The #shares owned is ~19M, which is closer to closer to 47%. Nasdaq lists institutional ownership at 14M shares, and does not list some of the same large holders such as Fidelity low priced stock fund (4M) or Columbus Capital management (2M).
Vinny, I have a tough time putting a number on the foreign auto market containing Neonode and timing of ramp....very hard to get this data. They stated that 5% of Q1 revenue was Auto. At $4 per vehicle and 5% of $1.8M, that's 22,500 vehicles, so some must have come from China/Europe as Volvo is just beginning to ramp....could be a nice addition to Q2.
It has occurred to me that the additional $10 or so to add Neonode to an auto is offset by the reduction of many of the buttons on the center stack, so it may actually be cheaper to add IR touch to vehicles than the button and #$%$ alternative. I believe that Chevy is the GM experiment with IR touch, and once consumers see the advantages, it will move through the GM line up. I e-mailed the communications manager from Cadillac about the new Caddy's coming out and he indicated that they are Cap touch and that "winter gloves that are now popular that have a fingertip surface to enable one to use an iPhone or similar device will also work for the CUE screen". I hope that satisfies their loyal consumers when much better alternatives show up in the market. It cost more to buy these special gloves than simply using Neonode for their touch needs. Go figure.
None of these large OEM's are interested in licensing IR touch to other OEM's within and outside of their industry. Does GM want to license to Volvo, HP, Dell, etc?...I doubt it ....and so on.
So IMO, Neonode sits in a unique position, where most OEM's that it works with are not interested in buying the company because none of these OEM's represent a large enough piece of the future puzzle to make it worthwhile Neonode offers the lowest cost and highest quality solution for many applications, and no other IR touch companies seem to be clamoring in to compete. GLTA.
I have been thinking about the concept of a Neonode buyout, as it seems to come up fairly frequently. I believe that it will not happen, and here is why. People bring up the names of the large OEM's that Neonode works with and as such suggest that these OEM's will buyout Neonode with spare change. OK, so why would Volvo, for example, buyout Neonode? They sell less than 500k vehicles/year, and Neonode wil one day get $3-$4 per vehicle if and when they fully implement Sensus connected touch across the spectrum of all Volvos...total value ~$2M/year max. Why buy the cow when the milk is free!
Let's take a large scale auto OEM like GM. Assume that GM will implement Neonode's solution into all of it's 10M vehicles (which I do expect) for a total yearly expense of $40M to Neonode (assuming $4 per vehicle). How much would GM want to pay for a company that costs them $40M per year? Next is HP. Let's assume that HP has a 40% market share of 100M printers and that 70% have touch interfaces and that Neonode receives 50 cents per unit...so HP gives Neonode $14M per year once fully implemented.(100M units times 40% market share times 50cents per unit equals $14M/year)....How much would HP pay for acompany that only costs them $14M per year?
So, to summarize, Neonode finds itself in a business with multiple large OEM's, each of which pays Neonode (perhaps via a 3rd party) a nice sum, but not enough to say "let's replicate this IR tech and do it ourselves", or "let's buy Neonode and save the amount that Neonode makes in profit". The only glitch thus far is Continental, which is working on their own "IR curtain" for car infotainment systems. They are years if not decades behind Neonode in development, so I will be curious about their results. There are other IR tech companies, but none specialize in small panel, low margin/high volume displays. The large panels in whiteboards cost thousands of $$$, and Neonode will one day put them out of business, imo....TBC
Vinny, I agree and remain optimistic about Neonode entering the PC/monitor/AIO space this year. They demonstrated a prototype notebook at Computex. Mgmt has stated that they will not front run their customers. Demonstrating in prototype form leaves one guessing. Had they demonstrated a finished integrated model, it would be analogous to front running. It is what we all would have liked to see, but we are left to wait for the OEM to bring these devices into the public's eye. Mgm't has not lied about vehicles, and I have no reason to believe that they are lying now. In fact, if anything, mgm't. has understated Neonode's future involvement in autos.
I expect touch to be in most PC's within a few years. I have a Fujitsu laptop with cap touch. I use the touch feature rarely. The screen visibility is poor in bright light...basically invisible. It was a very expensive add on feature, and the battery life is less than 1 hour. Neonode solves the price and quality issue for considerably less than $10 per laptop. A 14 inch screen will probably cost a total of $7. Who wouldn't want to pay an extra $7 to touch capability?
wanderin, Yes, apparently from an accounting standard, the $1.5 needs to be spread over 12 months beginnning Q2, so expect $375k in each of the next 4 quarters going forward. It will partially make up for the diminished e-reader/Amazon revenues in Q2 compared to Q1.
The Auto sector is beginning to ramp, but revenues will probably not begin to trickle into Neonode until Q3. Because of the way that Neonode recognizes revenue...45 days after end of Quarter for OEM, we basically see the revenue 1 quarter late.