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Neonode, Inc. Message Board

mfcav01 51 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2016 7:42 PM Member since: Dec 15, 2010
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  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 7:42 PM Flag

    Bo, I don't disagree. I did not put you on ignore, but someone else that suggested that I was lying a while back. The fact is that I enjoy looking into and researching companies, so the work is no big deal to me. I agree that a detached analytical approach to the charts can yield better results if one is good at it, especially on a short term basis, but Neon is a long term investment for me, so short term moves, although bothersome, do not change what I do.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 7:18 PM Flag

    Bo, I can handle criticism, mostly because I could care less what people think. The exception is when someone suggests that I am lying....then I hit the "ignore user" button. I asked you about Neon when it was $3.50 as I was looking to invest for one of my sons. You stated at that time that "I am a buyer". That recommendation of yours at that time is now down 50%, so perhaps you and or the charts suck a bit as well? Neon is a long term investment for me, so fundamentals (if what the company says is true) will prevail....eventually.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 4:52 PM Flag

    Bo, so you think that your SYNC bump had nothing to do with the ATT contract?

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 7:57 AM Flag

    The bump in SP yesterday with higher volume coincided with Neonode meeting with Craig Hallum....coincidence?

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    PS: I put the info on Stock Twits.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 19, 2016 7:46 AM Flag

    excellent find huynh! It appears this company plans to incorporate AB into a device with initial production capacity of ~3M devices to begin end of 2016 or early 2017. If they sell just 1M devices, Neonode becomes profitable.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 14, 2016 6:23 AM Flag

    Hunh, nice analysis, but the Q 1 printer revenue contained $300k relating to sales from previous quarters that were recognized in Q1, so real Q1 printer revs were $975k. I would therefore predict that Q2 printer revs will be in the $1M area. Secondly, e-reader revs in Q1 reflect Xmas sales, so Q2 will be considerably smaller.....probably in the $350k area. Next, NRE not includint the $375k Autoliv contribution has gone down in recent quarters ($225k in Q1), so I would predict that Q2 will be in the $225k area.

    Autos, on the other hand may be higher than your estimate. Actual numbers are challenging to accurately predict, as the mfgr releases data on total model sales, but within each model some contain Neon, some do not. That being said, it appears that licensing fees may lag by 1 quarter (Q1 reflects vehicles sold in q4). Many of these vehicles started selling late in q4 and q1, so Q2 may see a nice bump to ~$1M. Mgmt states (for what it's worth) 1.3M vehicles in 2016. Q1 only reflects ~200k vehicles. I figure 300k vehicles in Q2 or revs of ~$900k+.

    So I am modeling auto ($900k), printer ($1M), e-reader ($350k), NRE ($225k) Final Autoliv ($500k) =$2.975k plus AirBar.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 May 11, 2016 8:25 PM Flag

    Bo, first of all, congrats on SYNC. I'm happy for you. Next, looks like the Dog has his tail between his legs and is not interested in comparing tax returns. I don't blame him. Do food stamps show up as income on returns? He would rather collect minimum wage from the big short that pays him to lie and bash...or maybe he is an independent "investor" that thinks he may influence people by lying and bashing? Who knows.

  • mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 15, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Bo, You nailed the bottom...did you pick up more shares in the $1.70s?

  • Reply to

    MFCAV

    by bodeebo Apr 13, 2016 3:52 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 13, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    Thx., I'd be happy with $24.88 with Neon.

  • Reply to

    The one the only. Punching bag.Broke punching bag

    by scoverguy Apr 11, 2016 8:20 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 13, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    Bodeebo...Question.....If Neonode is an investment for you, not a trade, and you follow the chart and not the internal workings of the company, what convinced you to choose Neonode as an investment? thx

  • Reply to

    Email message response from Remo Behdasht

    by vinnywillwin Apr 12, 2016 4:21 AM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 12, 2016 7:46 AM Flag

    Vinny, thanks for posting. It will be interesting to see who these new partners are and to see if they can produce (push product through the channels). Ultimately, it is up to the consumer to decide, so AirBar will need good if not great reviews. If good reviews, consumers will buy, imo. Unlike cars, which take years to ramp, we will know about AB success or failure in a few months. The mkt seems to expect failure.

  • Reply to

    2016 Low high analysis

    by mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 6:48 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 11, 2016 8:42 AM Flag

    lysander, go to Twiiter, look up Neonode and see who they are 'following"....PC Mag, PC World, CNET, The Verge, etc....and who follows them.

  • Reply to

    2016 Low high analysis

    by mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 6:48 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 11, 2016 7:38 AM Flag

    z2, can you explain how migration to standard modules will lead to lower expenses? It would seem that expenses (and revenues) would rise if Neonode incurs the cost of module production.

  • Reply to

    2016 Low high analysis

    by mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 6:48 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 7:22 PM Flag

    Scover, no offense, but virtually all of your posts are nothing but toxic venting and jousting with Bodeebo. Why don't you just sell and move on?

  • Following are my Low/High estimates for 2016 without any $$$ consideration for AirBar (or the elusive PC). Assumptions include background quarterly NRE of $400k/Q. Auto...$4M-$6M, Printer...$3M-$6M, E-Reader...$3M, NRE...$2.5M

    I predict total 2016 revs including NRE of $12.5M-$17.5M with no consideration for AirBar. Neon's expenses have been running $4M/Q and during the CC, mgmt spoke of getting them down to $3M/Q.

    At end 2015, Neon had ~$4M in cash, so enough $$ to cover cash burn for the low estimate assuming Neon keeps expenses at $4M/Q.

    AirBar is the big unknown. It will happen and it will work despite what nay-sayers (shorts) might have everyone believe. The available videos , if taken together, demonstrate several gestures. What is unknown is how many will be sold?......50k/Q, 100k/Q, 300k/Q? Social media interest, basically representing replays of the original videos without any advertising suggests success, while the measly 10k pre-orders announced at the CC is a disappointment.

    Capitulation is not a requirement for a reversal, especially with ~5M shorts that need to cover.

  • Reply to

    FATBOY Remember This

    by bodeebo Apr 10, 2016 12:00 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Bo, Does the chart show a break to the downside?...or another day to confirm?

  • Reply to

    Airbar- As of 4/5 production not started

    by scoverguy Apr 6, 2016 6:49 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 10, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    I see Neonode as quite undervalued. For newbies, Neonode started out in 2001 as a handset manufacturer. Their product was novel, but competition in the space was fierce and they went BK in late 2008, as Pinky points out. They were in good company, though, as names like Motorola and perhaps 15 or so others perished during that time. They began again in early 2009, this time as a licensing company, with a 1 for 25 reverse split, putting the SP at that time at ~75 cents range.. So the current company is up well over 100% since early 2009, although down considerably from it's high of ~$8 per share (much to the dismay of many here).

    Pinky, I appreciate your concern for me, but I entered at ~$5, got out at ~$6.9 and re-entered at the ~$2.3 range. So I am down on my current shares, but comfortable with my holdings given what I believe is in store for Neonode in the coming monthe and years. I don't need to catch the bottom and I am definitely not embarrassed. Perhaps you should learn something about the company that you are bashing or "shut up" yourself?

    The important thing to understand with Neonode is that it takes a VERY long time for licensing deals to become licensing fee generating products, especially cars. Neonode licensed their technology to Volvo over 3 years before the first Volvo XC90 containing Neon inside was sold, and it will take 5 more years until Volvo's revamped line up of vehicles all contain Neonode inside. Same goes for Suzuki, Geely, Baojun, etc., who appear to be migrating to Neon in their revamped vehicles. Neonode projects that ~1.2M vehicles sold in 2016 will contain Neonode, but I conservatively expect that by December, monthly sales of vehicles containing Neon inside will be in the 180-200k units.

    GLTA.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Airbar- As of 4/5 production not started

    by scoverguy Apr 6, 2016 6:49 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 9, 2016 5:09 PM Flag

    Pinky, my pinky knows more about Neonode than you do. I have owned Neon for a few years (on and off and longer than Scover) and understand the company quite well. You have not made a single post that requires correction, because you have said nothing. You speak of Neon generating sales, which confirms that you do not know what you are talking about. Neonode does not sell anything (not yet at least), so what are you talking about? Your posts are all emotional nonsense. Neon may go down a little more in the short term based upon technicals, but upside considerably outweighs the downside at this point. If you are a new short, good luck and I mean that, but you better be nimble, because the chart will turn on you soon enough. For me, Neon is an investment, not a trade. BTW, Neon does make for a great trade for small timers...a few k shares.

  • Reply to

    Airbar- As of 4/5 production not started

    by scoverguy Apr 6, 2016 6:49 PM
    mfcav01 mfcav01 Apr 9, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    Pinky, good stuff...insult longs by calling them gullible, fools, buffoons and accuse THEM of attacking ....good stuff. Scover has been badmouthing mgmt for over a year, and that's pumping? I would hate to see him when he is bashing!

    Your posts represent one sided bashing. I get that. You are short and trying to talk retail buyers out of buying or maybe getting weak hands to sell.

    I believe that Neon will prove to be a great investment. Call me a pumper. I could care less. The product is unique, has IP protection, and offers advantages over cap and other touch technologies that may or may not become broadly adopted. Sales multiples work when comparing companies that sell goods, but not so well in companies coming out of development stage with a licensing model. (Neon does not sell anything (yet), so why use sales?) BTW, price to revs is less than 8, not 10. Comparing sales multiples between co's that sell good and co's with a licensing model is an apples and oranges comparison. If the modules that Neonode receives licensing from were produced by Neonode, then their "sales" would be $50-$100M, but so would their expenses. With a licensing model, as you should understand, once break even is reached, revs go straight to bottom line....not so in companies that incur the cost of goods and sell products.

    A modicum of success with AirBar will bring Neon to break even or perhaps become profitable on an ongoing basis. Meanwhile, cars and printers will continue to ramp. What will shorts do once they can no longer talk about an equity offering, AB is a hunk of plastic, etc.? Once profitable, cleaner metrics such as forward PE multiples will be used.....talk to you then Pinky.

NEON
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