Oclaro, Inc. Message Board

Actually I am an eye doctor. My father, grandfather, all my uncles, my brother and his wife are all attorneys. My father was a terrible investor--he believed in the buy high--sell low philosophy. I have been trying to avoid that throughout my investing, and have done much better than him. I have started to follow ONVO, but the article on their reverse merger and the fact that they are very far from meaningful revenue has kept me from speculating on that stock. I have recently invested in TROV--Trovagene. They have patented technology that allows them to detect various forms of cancer, leukemia, and HPV from DNA in a simple urine test that is on the verge of being broadly accepted, and many others likely to come. They are being followed by a number of analysts and 3 have recently upgraded the stock with price targets anywher from $12-$18. The stock currently is at $6.50 and had an explosive move yesterday just before the close. I would look at that.

As the only person in my family who is not an attorney, which clearly makes me the smartest in the family(I am a doctor), and the most experienced investor, I have been trading and investing for over 20 years. And yes, I do think there was not enough news to cause this stock to rebound and rise as quickly and as high as it did in just 2 weeks, especially with a dilutionary secondary offering, even though it only increased the float by roughly 8%. I am just trying to put my experience to work by attempting to figure out what this stock will do--just like everyone else here. I have seen many stocks, including other stocks that I own and have owned 'bounce'. But this is much more than a bounce--it is a giant leap. And stocks that do that, especially ones with as ambivalent a following as this one, usually boounce in both directions, and I'm predicting that the next one will be down a little bit. I had to suffer through the drop following the split, recovered, added, and made a nice profit, and now I am going to try to add to my gains by rebuying at a better level before the stock begins it's next ascent. I think I will be correct---but so will the longs who just feeld like holding. I prefer to take a more active role. Sorry you're stuck in that horrible job, too.

My data is from TD Ameritrade. Also updated 5/17.

Uptrend shmuptrend. The stock has gone staight up since 4/22 and went from $31 to $51 in 2 weeks. There is NO technical analysis that's going to help anyone determine where it may drop to or be safe to re-enter or whether it will go up from here. I am of the opinion that a 60% increase in 2 weeks on little to no news AND a secondary, dilutionary share offering---and a 30% increase from that level in just 2 days is unsustainable, unwarranted, and placed a falsely high value on the stock due to additional shortcovering. The stock will fall to it's equilibrium point eventually--and I'm fairly certain it will be considerably lower than closing today. Looking for it to drop back to the secondary price.

I originally sold a little prematurely in the low 40's just before the secondary was announced. It was very nice of the company to give me the chance to buy my shares back at a lower price and then even nicer that the market took the stock up even more before I sold again. But, after a 60% runup from the bottom in just a few weeks---time to drift back down to reality before catching another updraft. I'll be starting to nibble back in under $42.

Here is the press release:
UPDATE: Oppenheimer Raises PT on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Following Management Meetings
11:11a ET May 17, 2013 (Benzinga) In a report published Friday, Oppenheimer analyst Boris Peaker reiterated an Outperform rating on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: KERX), and slightly raised the price target from $11.00 to $12.00.

In the report, Peaker noted, “We recently met with management and had an opportunity to probe further into the clinical and pre-commercial developments for Zerenex. The update confirms our bullish view on the drug and provides incremental data points that may be overlooked by some investors. We continue to believe that Zerenex is a commercially attractive phosphate binder that has multiple advantages compared to the competition, and we anticipate the drug will gain approval in 1H13. We revised our NPV model and are raising our price target on Keryx to $12/share from $11 while maintaining our Outperform rating.”

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals closed on Thursday at $8.00.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I totally agree, and I have added a few thousand more shares to my position here. If the MM's want to hold the stock price here today I'm going to take advantage of that and thank them when the options being written are for much higher prices in a few months. Anyone buying here is getting a deal--anyone selling here is going to miss out on much bigger gains--starting next week. Each of the last 3 times the stock has come back down to under $8(and this time barely) it has rallied very quickly back into the mid to upper 8's. Next time I think it goes over $9. More funds will be loading up on these bargain shares also increasing the demand and decreasing the supply of tradable shares, causing a greater move up.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Every day is a great day to go golfing. I'll have to wait for Sunday though. Today is also a great day to add more Keryx stock before it goes back into the mid to upper 8's nextweek and higher leading into the conference in Hong Kong. Hit em straight.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

It was announced that they are participating. In fact they are one of the highlights. This will give the company a chance to shine and garner publicity in front of the most important critical and valuable audience--the prescribing and treating doctors and specialists who deal with the target patients. They are presenting, I believe, on either June 1st or 2nd.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

That's what I've been saying for a few days now. Prior to the secondary I thought the stock could drop back into the mid to upper 30's, but now I think the secondary price will act as support. If it does drop below the secondary I don't think it will be by more than 5%. I sold my shares at a peak price of $46.70 so anything I buy back below that will be a profit and a savings. Not time to rebuy yet--still more pullback to come.

Now that's just silly. If the market corrects 10% why would ddd drop 50%. But I can see the upper 30's as a possibility. This is definitely a momentum stock--but momentum works both ways.

If that's the case, then congrats to them. But for everyone else here, this is a great buying opportunity. The stock has run into the mid $8's once and the upper $8's twice in the past 5 weeks and each time the bottom has also come up a little bit. Soon the stock will be doing that with the $9's and then double figures. If you're trying to time this stock--how well did you time the run last week from $7.76 to $8.80 in 3 days? It's not easy. Better off getting in at a good price point like this than try to play catch.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

$45.50 will average you down, but I think that's still too high to rebuy. Going down at least to $40-$42--near the secondary offering price.

The article was in Barron's and it is available now on Yahoo. It is a very rational perception and does justify thsi specific analyst's opinion.

Had to be a fund buying in. If it was they got a heck of a deal and the MM kept the price down for them--or sellers were keeping pace--which I find hard to believe. Still--$2 today and going up.

Sentiment: Buy