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Oclaro, Inc. Message Board

mgm2020 1030 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Mar 3, 2010
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  • Gas---your statement and conclusion would be correct if the SAME patient population was being treated with 8400 as imbruvca. That is not the case here. The trial for 8400 is ONLY open to patients that are refractory or relapsed. These patients have already been treated with imbruvica, chemo, another checkpoint inhibitor, or whatever the SOC for WM is and FAILED. That is why a 30%ORR would be so significant. That would mean that 30% of the patients that had failed at previous treatment would have responded to 8400 and now have hope for remission/cure/non-progression. If that is the case, then the probability of significantly more patients responding as a first line therapy or in combination therapy comes right to the forefront.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    There are an awful lot of funds "betting" that the results will be good, and I think that the fund involvement will show another increase in the 3rd quarter, but we won't find that out until about 11/15. I am looking forward to the upcoming data the company has to present at the AACR/immunotherapy conference in 3 weeks. 8400 is definitely a multi-purpose compound with all of it's potential uses. 2125 could reformulate the way many cancers are treated by stimulating the TLR pathway and rendering cancer cells defenseless to checkpoint inhibitors. The GSO's SHOULD put the company eventually in ISIS-valuation land. As I have said---Idera is a very RARE small bio----with a very impressive and deep pipeline. Anything under $3.00---which won't last much longer----is a GIFT!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    In order for there to be a "miss" they would basically have to completely strike out on the results. These are already refractory and relapsed patients, which is why the company, and the analyst at JP Morgan are considering only a 20-30% response rate to be exciting and SIGNIFICANT and any complete responses to be a home run. And while there is the possibility of a miss, the 2125 and 8400 DM trials will both be underway as well as the GSO's coming into trials very soon, so the effects on the stock should be muted. However, if the results are as good-----or better than expected then the stock heads MUCH higher. I don't really think the shorts are betting against the trial either since the short percentage really started increasing way back in the spring too far ahead of the trial results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Here are some more compelling reasons to own IDRA NOW:
    Sept 16-19--Inaugural AACR/Immunotherapy conference with IDRA presenting NEW combination data
    Occuring in the 4th quarter(which begins in a little over 4 weeks):
    2125/Yervoy MD Anderson trial begins
    8400 DM trial begins
    8400 DMD trial may begin(or 1st Q 2016)
    First TWO GSO targets unveiled(and when that announcement is made it will signal that the company has ALL of the research and data available to give the program the GREATEST chance of success---since Milano stated they were waiting for EVERYTHING to be ready before bringing the GSO's in)
    Other presentations at key conferences culminating with ASH---where the company has stated they plan on formally reveling the 8400 WM data---and has submitted abstracts for presentation already

    WILD CARDS coming up:
    New CMO appointment---the company is still in the process of locating the right "superstar" in the field
    9200 partnership---with the company's first ORAL TLR for Irritable Bowel.
    With ALL of these catalysts and milestones coming up IN THE NEXT few weeks and months the stock price will continue to rebound rapidly. The stock went over $4 just 4 weeks ago, and now we are a month closer to all of these developments. This stock could jump quickly and surprisingly just like it did 10 months ago when it surged from $2 to $5.49-----only this time there are MULTIPLE CATALYSTS and events that could take the stock MUCH higher. The next few months are going to become FUN again I think------but I don't think it will be fun for the shorts unless they cover before this really picks up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy more.

    by quadholes Aug 28, 2015 8:29 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    It's pulled back from $4.16 4 weeks ago----THAT was NOT "healthy" or warranted. It is DUE for a considerable rise back into the mid $3's and the channel that it had been in for 2 months before advancing into the $4's. And with the shorts covering to exit their positions the increase should be enhanced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • TROV is up nearly 10% today and was up 7% yesterday. Still over $2 below the secondary price of just a few weeks ago before the small caps overshot to the downside. Same with IDRA----overshot to the downside and looking much stronger now. Add in the 28.5% short that STILL has to cover to make a profit---and you have a rally lurking in the wings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Logic is simple

    by lune222 Aug 28, 2015 2:10 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    And like many "retail" investors, I wish I was smart enough and ballsy enough to sell high and buy low. But this market has been like no other ever. And now when the Chinese president sneezes the market can drop 1000 points! Oh well-----better to hold as the stock recovers---and buy more on the way up. TROV is ONLY a stronger company now than it was when the stock was $13 thanks to the $80 MILLION in the bank now, and more data piling up every day. I think the price will reinflate fairly quickly into and through the 4th quarter---and there should be a few key presentations during that time also. I think the company mentioned one in Vienna coming up. They presented key data in Europe in June that really sparked the stock higher at the lung conference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • including 3 compounds that have already been proven SAFE in previous trials(2125, 8400 in psoriasis, and 9200 in healthy volunteers) that have ALL been found to have ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CLINICAL effects and uses. 2125 was trialed as an antiviral, and little did anyone know then---as the TLR science was just beginning to mature---that TLR agonists would act SYNERGISTICALLY with some of the most widely used anti-cancer drugs---the checkpoint inhibitors and, at least in preclinical research been shown to DOUBLE their effectiveness----OR MORE! And we also never would have thought that MD Anderson would come knocking on Idera's front door ASKING to run a trial with 2125 that would be led by the Department Chair! We would not have thought that a company this small(right now) could attract the talents and expertise of a biotech-savvy CEO with the pedigree of a Vin Milano when Agrawal was not only the chief scientist but also the CEO----something he NEVER should have been saddled with. And that one of the leading authorities and scientists in the GSO field, that jettisoned the 2nd generation of compounds due to their drawbacks and shortcomings(yet have built ISIS to a $5 BILLIION company) would be ready now to bring the next generation of better, more potent, easier to deliver, and much less toxic GSO's to patients within the next few months. And those are just a few compelling reasons to be in this stock NOW heading into the MOST ACTIVE QUARTER the company has EVER seen. It's going to get VERY exciting here soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And as of the 6/30 form 4 filings they had not sold a single share. They are not looking for a 25% or 50%, or even 100% gain. They are looking for a MULTI-BAGGER! You KNOW they have spoken with Schuh and Erlander before sinking this kind of money into such a small company. And they understand that no on or no fund can control the market----but the MARKET, the science, the product, the technology, the DEMAND, and the revenue will take this stock MUCH----------MUCH higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    AH---but that's where the "investment" potential comes in. Imbuvica was one drug in a new class of drugs that was just a preclinical concept 5 years ago----now it's considered the gold standard in an expanding list of cancers. It doesn't really matter if the TLR's are used as monotherapy or in combination therapy with other drugs to enhance the activity of both--either way is a GOLD MINE for IDRA and for us. Add in the non-cancer uses----DMD, DM, and others and you are talking BILLIONS. And then there are the GSO's.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    Enough people and funds believed just 2 months ago and that's why the stock price was in the $13's and the market cap valued the company at $325 million. THAT is WAY too low. This company should be valued at $350-$400 million which is a stock price of $11-$13 NOW! And remember, they have $80 MILLION is cash-----or over $2.50 PER SHARE!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I admit that I sold some of my OTHER holdings to put some cash in my account---just in case there was a further drop or China blew themselves up or something(and they almost did with that industrial explosion!). But I did not sell ANY of my TROV. This company has a TREMENDOUS future ahead of it-----either on their own or(more likely) when they are bought out in the $20's---which could be as soon as 6-12 months as interested companies watch the test demand and use skyrocket and the revenue rapidly build.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Why would you say that a CR is unlikely when the choice of Waldenstrom's was based on the fact that the myd88l265p mutation cancer cells cannot survive without an intact TLR 7,9 pathway? Or are you just making an assumption based on your "hunch"? If you "lock" that TLR pathway in these cancer cells they can not reproduce and they DIE----also known as cell apoptosis. Depending on the action, half-life, and number of treatments these patients receive it is very possible that there can be complete responses-----and that is in previously UNRESPONSIVE patients. And they may possibly need to be kept on a "maintenance dose" if they show any significant response similar to the treatment of a patient with MS that shows significant response to treatment but is kept on medication for life. There are MANY positive scenarios here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The small caps were the first to begin selling off, and they will also have the strongest rebound, because they have the GREATEST GROWTH POTENTIAL. TROV will be the leader in the liquid biopsy market and their testing capabilities will keep expanding. Oncologists, and even GP's will utilize TROV's simple convenient, rapid results, and PRECISE test in larger numbers than anyone anticipates. They will be the go-to test for all of the cancers that they will be able to monitor, quantify, and verify mutational status. it won't be long before the price is back above the secondary---where funds bought 5,000,000 shares at $8.75----in fact---GOBBLED THEM UP, and then back in double figures as more evidence mounts that their platform is essential for oncologists to provide their patients with the BEST TREATMENT. Again, the insiders that bought KNEW how undervalued this stock is. And they do NOT make a lot of money!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both choices are EXCELLENT! I would rather have more funds buying and put the shorts more in jeopardy of losing their gains. The volume over the past few weeks has not been indicating any kind of short-covering----until 3:50 today---possibly. Could have been a combination cover and go long, too. In any case, it's still not about what the stock did today, or yesterday, or the past few weeks---or even in the next few----it's about where the stock will be when the results are released and WHAT happens after the POSITIVE results. Remember---the bar is set very low with these patients because they have already failed with treatment---either relapsed or had no response(like at least 2 patients that were on Imbruvica---the GOLD STANDARD now). Like Bob Doody said, it will be very interesting to see how those imbruvica patients did on 8400-----as well as everyone else. And ANY CR's(complete responses)------EVERYONE IN THE POOL!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IDRA is still riding the wave.... buy more.

    by shellerati49 Aug 27, 2015 4:46 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Shell, that's the first intelligent thing you've said-----EVER! The shellerati's clearly improve as the number gets higher---and 48 was a very bad number.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Shell is someone else also on the MB-----and they are all JERKS who apparently don't want to hear anything positive about IDRA. I wonder why? They would rather keep positive sentiment off the board? They would rather just allow the bashers and namecallers to overrun and control the board? They have NOTHING of any value to add themselves so they are envious of anyone who sounds like they have a brain and can back their position up with factual statements? They have no life and just like acting superior(when they are really overcompensating for something----if you know what I mean) All I want to see id IDRA stock near the $5 mark by Thanksgiving. What it does tomorrow, last week, next week-----is all part of the game and part o the lead-up to new data and trial results. IF and WHEN the TLR science is confirmed with 8400 first and then 2125---IDRA is AT LEAST a $15-$20 company-------$1.5-$2 BILLION market cap. And it SHOULD be a $500 market cap company BEFORE the WM data, thanks to ALL of the other programs, science, data, and the most advanced GSO technology coming very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hi, I'm MGM2020

    by beast885_2000 Aug 27, 2015 1:27 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    They just don't understand that the present stock price is NOT the company. The COMPANY is busy working on everything they have laid out for us, and working very hard to ensure success of all of the programs---which is why they are waiting to unveil the GSO targets and have that program ready to launch with as much confidence, science, and research backing them up as possible. How many small biotechs are SOUGHT OUT by MD Anderson for a critical melanoma trial with a therapy that until less than a year ago wasn't even a remote possibility, and now there is research both by Idera AND PCYC that shows the increased effectiveness of a TLR agonist(2125) along with a checkpoint inhibitor------and more research is coming soon. You want a HOME RUN---well IDRA has an awful low of batters coming up------and a lot of them are power hitters.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    The "millions" is for both 2125 and 8400. You know how many melanoma cases there are every year? It is an epidemic and I personally have known 2 people who died from melanoma. If 2125 increases the effectiveness of treatment by 25-50% you are talking about a "miracle" drug for many cancer patients.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Told you this is what happens with TROV....

    by mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 2:06 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 27, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    I would like to see that also. Regardless, I think the price approaches the secondary price and moves higher after the next series of presentations and I through the 4th quarter. I have never heard management as upbeat as TROV was at the CC, AND follow that up with a sizable a stock purchase(from 3 insiders) when the market was taking a beating. $300-$400 mil market cap trading at a very large discount right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OCLR
2.78+0.04(+1.46%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT