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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

mgm2020 964 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 3, 2010
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  • I think there is a good chance that the stock is close to $3.50 by the conference or shortly after. Depending on what is presented and how much it increases the confidence level in the 2125/melanoma trial---and in combination therapy with 2125 and a checkpoint inhibitor in general. Remember, PCYC came out with their own data showing the synergistic effect of both drugs. If Idera could get a trial going with imbruvica as the checkpoint inhibitor, that would be something. But Yervoy is also one of the most widely prescribed, and effective. And Yervoy is also used as monotherapy with melanoma. I would LOVE to see the response rate go from 30-40% to 60-75% with the addition of 2125. That would be MONUMENTAL and would absolutely have 2125 fast-tracked. 2 weeks until the conference and less than 4 weeks to the start of the critical 4th quarter. 2 or 3 new trials beginning, the unveiling of the first TWO GSO targets, and the 8400 data. Should be a completely different stock performance in the 4th quarter. Load up here while the market is bottoming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think that TROV will recover quickly thanks to enthusiasm over the upcoming 4th quarter, new data, new presentations, rapid and widespread adoption of their tests, and the discussions with insurance panels and ensuing reimbursement coverage and panel inclusion. From here the stock should double within the next 3-6 months, and I think that is being conservative since the stock was at $13 just 3 months ago.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Actually---I started buying KERX and "recommending" it at about $6.50 3 years ago right after their P3 results were released. I owned it all the way through their approval of Auryxia and rode the stock to a high of over $18, as well as accumulating over 20,000 shares and buying on ALL of the dips. ALL of the analysts covering the stock(and I am not a stock analyst) had buy recommendations and price targets anywhere from the mid $20's to mid $30's on the stock. Then when their drug was approved with a bogus "warning" and the stock price started behaving very erratically I got out with an average price in the $15's. After their drug was approved I stated that now they had shifted from a developmental company to a drug company and the stock performance would be dependent on their drug sales and forecasts. The drug sales have been slower than expected, hence the stock has fallen. That's the KERX story. The Idera story is MUCH more compelling. There is ALWAYS a problem with one drug companies. There are exceptions(PCYC, ACAD), but for the most part they are very risky due to the reliance on a single compound. Idera has a MINIMUM of 5 compounds that they are advancing and will be trialing AND 2 FULL PLATFORMS with dozens of potential applications. Idera is a small biotech like no other thanks to the science, the leadership, the backing, and the pipeline and it will be one of the BEST PERFORMING investments over the next few years in the entire market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Excellent article on SA posted today

    by exasxtrov Sep 2, 2015 1:05 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Sep 2, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    I have not read the article yet, but I think TROV's estimate of the total liquid biopsy market is more accurate----namely $15. I do not know the exact timeframe that it will reach that level, but I would think that it is within 5 years. Now---if TROV only captures 5% of that market, then they will generate about $750 million in revenue. Maybe that's what the author was indicating---that TROV's share of the overall market could be $750 million? The fact that TROV is sitting here with a market cap of UNDER $200 million and OVER $2/share in CASH is ridiculous and will not last. The stock should be DOUBLE where it is, which would give it the market cap it had before the secondary. I believe the stock will be back in double digits before year end and NOW is a great time to buy---at prices just above where the insiders bought but still $2.50 UNDER the secondary price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Antisense Technology Versus RNAi Technology

    by tauhydrae Sep 1, 2015 8:07 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Sep 1, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    Thanks tau. Science is progressing faster than ever right now and treatments for many conditions that were either considered untreatable or hopeless in the recent past will be coming into existence very soon thanks to both of these technologies. It's good to know that Idera has one of the leading authorities, if not THE leading in the 3Ga/GSO field heading the scientific branch of the company---as well as a tremendous CEO leading the business end. The first 2 GSO targets will be very interesting----whether the company decides to go after other "orphan" diseases(which is what ISIS has done with many of it's trials since that is EXTREMELY LUCRATIVE) or more mainstream conditions that would have a significantly larger patient population. We'll find out soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8400 Trials

    by hughhaggerty14 Aug 30, 2015 10:40 AM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 31, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    We only know that just 2 of the patients in THIS TRIAL failed on Imbruvica. Even Imbruvica has only a 40% ORR with NO ONE showing a complete response on Imbruvica. But if 2 of the patients in our trial have failed imbruvica(had zero response), then by extrapolating you can figure that hundreds or thousands of WM patients have either failed or had minimal response with imbruvica also. The key to successful cancer therapy in the future may very well be combination therapy---or "cocktails" of different drugs that complement each other. The TLR's have a very safe profile with minimal side effects and they may make an excellent choice for either mono or combination therapy with many cancers---both solid(like melanoma and the TLR agonists to greatly enhance the effect of checkpoint inhibitors) or blood cancers to work along with those drugs to arrest and/or kill the cancer cells that don't respond to those drugs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • LONG before the WM data release. The short float will strongly come into play here. While few shorts have covered so far---it DOES NOT make sense(or money) for them to continue to ride their short position here as they see the stock rising back up and likely to continue to rise through September---through the new data the company will be presenting at AACR in 2 1/2 weeks, and then higher into and through the 4th quarter when the company will be hitting many milestones, new trials beginning, the first 2 GSO targets being revealed, and of course---the landmark 8400 data release. If they want to play this best, they should cover, reverse positions, and then consider what to do down the road. BUT---the only way for them to take their profits is to cover, and the longer they wait he further the stock will get from the bottom, and as other shorts DO decide to cover it will push the stock higher. While we longs are looking forward to all of the developments coming up and are EXPECTING the stock price to rise, in fact I expect the stock to rise to at least $4.50-$5 BEFORE the 8400 results----the shorts should not pass up this opportunity to cover and pat themselves on the back----or risk losing most or all of their profits. IDRA could surprise with a very rapid rise back up into the trading channel that it was in before the market drop-----and from there NEXT TIME it will be higher into and through the 4th quarter which begins in 4 weeks---with the AACR/immunotherapy conference coming up fast.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 30, 2015 8:03 PM Flag

    Gas---your statement and conclusion would be correct if the SAME patient population was being treated with 8400 as imbruvca. That is not the case here. The trial for 8400 is ONLY open to patients that are refractory or relapsed. These patients have already been treated with imbruvica, chemo, another checkpoint inhibitor, or whatever the SOC for WM is and FAILED. That is why a 30%ORR would be so significant. That would mean that 30% of the patients that had failed at previous treatment would have responded to 8400 and now have hope for remission/cure/non-progression. If that is the case, then the probability of significantly more patients responding as a first line therapy or in combination therapy comes right to the forefront.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    There are an awful lot of funds "betting" that the results will be good, and I think that the fund involvement will show another increase in the 3rd quarter, but we won't find that out until about 11/15. I am looking forward to the upcoming data the company has to present at the AACR/immunotherapy conference in 3 weeks. 8400 is definitely a multi-purpose compound with all of it's potential uses. 2125 could reformulate the way many cancers are treated by stimulating the TLR pathway and rendering cancer cells defenseless to checkpoint inhibitors. The GSO's SHOULD put the company eventually in ISIS-valuation land. As I have said---Idera is a very RARE small bio----with a very impressive and deep pipeline. Anything under $3.00---which won't last much longer----is a GIFT!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    In order for there to be a "miss" they would basically have to completely strike out on the results. These are already refractory and relapsed patients, which is why the company, and the analyst at JP Morgan are considering only a 20-30% response rate to be exciting and SIGNIFICANT and any complete responses to be a home run. And while there is the possibility of a miss, the 2125 and 8400 DM trials will both be underway as well as the GSO's coming into trials very soon, so the effects on the stock should be muted. However, if the results are as good-----or better than expected then the stock heads MUCH higher. I don't really think the shorts are betting against the trial either since the short percentage really started increasing way back in the spring too far ahead of the trial results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Here are some more compelling reasons to own IDRA NOW:
    Sept 16-19--Inaugural AACR/Immunotherapy conference with IDRA presenting NEW combination data
    Occuring in the 4th quarter(which begins in a little over 4 weeks):
    2125/Yervoy MD Anderson trial begins
    8400 DM trial begins
    8400 DMD trial may begin(or 1st Q 2016)
    First TWO GSO targets unveiled(and when that announcement is made it will signal that the company has ALL of the research and data available to give the program the GREATEST chance of success---since Milano stated they were waiting for EVERYTHING to be ready before bringing the GSO's in)
    Other presentations at key conferences culminating with ASH---where the company has stated they plan on formally reveling the 8400 WM data---and has submitted abstracts for presentation already

    WILD CARDS coming up:
    New CMO appointment---the company is still in the process of locating the right "superstar" in the field
    9200 partnership---with the company's first ORAL TLR for Irritable Bowel.
    With ALL of these catalysts and milestones coming up IN THE NEXT few weeks and months the stock price will continue to rebound rapidly. The stock went over $4 just 4 weeks ago, and now we are a month closer to all of these developments. This stock could jump quickly and surprisingly just like it did 10 months ago when it surged from $2 to $5.49-----only this time there are MULTIPLE CATALYSTS and events that could take the stock MUCH higher. The next few months are going to become FUN again I think------but I don't think it will be fun for the shorts unless they cover before this really picks up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy more.

    by quadholes Aug 28, 2015 8:29 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 29, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    It's pulled back from $4.16 4 weeks ago----THAT was NOT "healthy" or warranted. It is DUE for a considerable rise back into the mid $3's and the channel that it had been in for 2 months before advancing into the $4's. And with the shorts covering to exit their positions the increase should be enhanced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • TROV is up nearly 10% today and was up 7% yesterday. Still over $2 below the secondary price of just a few weeks ago before the small caps overshot to the downside. Same with IDRA----overshot to the downside and looking much stronger now. Add in the 28.5% short that STILL has to cover to make a profit---and you have a rally lurking in the wings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Logic is simple

    by lune222 Aug 28, 2015 2:10 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    And like many "retail" investors, I wish I was smart enough and ballsy enough to sell high and buy low. But this market has been like no other ever. And now when the Chinese president sneezes the market can drop 1000 points! Oh well-----better to hold as the stock recovers---and buy more on the way up. TROV is ONLY a stronger company now than it was when the stock was $13 thanks to the $80 MILLION in the bank now, and more data piling up every day. I think the price will reinflate fairly quickly into and through the 4th quarter---and there should be a few key presentations during that time also. I think the company mentioned one in Vienna coming up. They presented key data in Europe in June that really sparked the stock higher at the lung conference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • including 3 compounds that have already been proven SAFE in previous trials(2125, 8400 in psoriasis, and 9200 in healthy volunteers) that have ALL been found to have ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CLINICAL effects and uses. 2125 was trialed as an antiviral, and little did anyone know then---as the TLR science was just beginning to mature---that TLR agonists would act SYNERGISTICALLY with some of the most widely used anti-cancer drugs---the checkpoint inhibitors and, at least in preclinical research been shown to DOUBLE their effectiveness----OR MORE! And we also never would have thought that MD Anderson would come knocking on Idera's front door ASKING to run a trial with 2125 that would be led by the Department Chair! We would not have thought that a company this small(right now) could attract the talents and expertise of a biotech-savvy CEO with the pedigree of a Vin Milano when Agrawal was not only the chief scientist but also the CEO----something he NEVER should have been saddled with. And that one of the leading authorities and scientists in the GSO field, that jettisoned the 2nd generation of compounds due to their drawbacks and shortcomings(yet have built ISIS to a $5 BILLIION company) would be ready now to bring the next generation of better, more potent, easier to deliver, and much less toxic GSO's to patients within the next few months. And those are just a few compelling reasons to be in this stock NOW heading into the MOST ACTIVE QUARTER the company has EVER seen. It's going to get VERY exciting here soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And as of the 6/30 form 4 filings they had not sold a single share. They are not looking for a 25% or 50%, or even 100% gain. They are looking for a MULTI-BAGGER! You KNOW they have spoken with Schuh and Erlander before sinking this kind of money into such a small company. And they understand that no on or no fund can control the market----but the MARKET, the science, the product, the technology, the DEMAND, and the revenue will take this stock MUCH----------MUCH higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    AH---but that's where the "investment" potential comes in. Imbuvica was one drug in a new class of drugs that was just a preclinical concept 5 years ago----now it's considered the gold standard in an expanding list of cancers. It doesn't really matter if the TLR's are used as monotherapy or in combination therapy with other drugs to enhance the activity of both--either way is a GOLD MINE for IDRA and for us. Add in the non-cancer uses----DMD, DM, and others and you are talking BILLIONS. And then there are the GSO's.......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    Enough people and funds believed just 2 months ago and that's why the stock price was in the $13's and the market cap valued the company at $325 million. THAT is WAY too low. This company should be valued at $350-$400 million which is a stock price of $11-$13 NOW! And remember, they have $80 MILLION is cash-----or over $2.50 PER SHARE!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I admit that I sold some of my OTHER holdings to put some cash in my account---just in case there was a further drop or China blew themselves up or something(and they almost did with that industrial explosion!). But I did not sell ANY of my TROV. This company has a TREMENDOUS future ahead of it-----either on their own or(more likely) when they are bought out in the $20's---which could be as soon as 6-12 months as interested companies watch the test demand and use skyrocket and the revenue rapidly build.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 28, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Why would you say that a CR is unlikely when the choice of Waldenstrom's was based on the fact that the myd88l265p mutation cancer cells cannot survive without an intact TLR 7,9 pathway? Or are you just making an assumption based on your "hunch"? If you "lock" that TLR pathway in these cancer cells they can not reproduce and they DIE----also known as cell apoptosis. Depending on the action, half-life, and number of treatments these patients receive it is very possible that there can be complete responses-----and that is in previously UNRESPONSIVE patients. And they may possibly need to be kept on a "maintenance dose" if they show any significant response similar to the treatment of a patient with MS that shows significant response to treatment but is kept on medication for life. There are MANY positive scenarios here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

KERX
5.06-0.97(-16.09%)Sep 3 4:00 PMEDT