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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

mgm2020 420 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Mar 3, 2010
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  • mgm2020 mgm2020 May 17, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    Not quite sure----I think that will be a question for Bob to answer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 May 17, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    Don't fool yourself. this is a time to be accumulating quietly while the stock is down and before the runup begins in the latter part of the year when the first set of translational data is available for 2125 and the stock does the same thing it did last year. The only surprises in the meantime would be any partnership or licensing announcements or new data on 2125 and other checkpoint inhibitors, since it seems to work astonishingly well with every drug it's been tested in combination with. Now-----why don't you go and enjoy a nice Hebrew National frank-----huh Milwaukee?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 May 17, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Well said-----and all true.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • State Street added 68K. Overall inst. % stayed about the same, but those are some KEY numbers. More funds may have added when the price was above $5 before and after the shake-up, and it will get back to that level as it looks like everything is staying on rack at TROV and Welch is being quickly brought up to speed. Erlander staying is key---and he won't be going anywhere thanks to the incentive package he was just given. This low price is still a buying opportunity. TROV PCM is the way of the future with many cancers and key mutations already in the stable-----and technology that can be easily expanded to detect a multitude of other "clinically actionable biomarkers" as the company puts it. I still hold to double digits by the end of the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from Bill Welch CEO: "So the Company is doing great opportunities with certain markers in high quality tumor types. Publications are ongoing. AACR is like, what Mark, this coming(next week) -- this -- ASCO's coming up(June). And a number of things. And then after that I think you'll start to see better uptake."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is a statement from the CC: "Lastly, you may recall our plans to conduct a clinical advisory board meeting in the first quarter of this year. In February, we convened this meeting with 16 leading pulmonary oncologists and based on the success of this event, we plan to conduct a second meeting with this advisory group at ASCO in early June when we will be sharing our expanded dataset in lung cancer.

    This growing body of clinical evidence supporting our technology should further accelerate our commercial momentum towards our goal of being the leader in CT DNA cancer detection and monitoring."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The four analysts that called in

    by tradingwithyourhead May 10, 2016 3:07 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 11, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    Only one screen name Milwaukee. Why don't you go choke on a Nathan's kosher hot dog.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Got to Admit--AH strong

    by mannchris686 May 10, 2016 5:03 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 10, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    I did not get on the call. Revenue was mostly "royalties", but the actual PCM test revenue is not claimed until the payment is received either from the patient or the insurance company, so there is probably some deferred income that will be claimed next Q. The real key numbers are utilization, paying vs non-paying, number of physicians ordering tests and Reordering, and projections. In the last CC the company said that it would not make revenue projections for the next few quarters due to the lack of historical perspective, so the next few quarters are going to establish the "baseline". Whatever is going on, the market---albeit thin AH---seems to be OK with what they are hearing from Welch et al. We NEED a good day, week, month, and year from TROV!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stock-based compensation which is the way companies report now. AND they have $60 million in CASH. FULL sales and marketing team in place to hit the areas most widely covered by the insurance plans. And the "revenue" component of the earnings report will not show most of the revenue from the PCM test as this revenue is only reported when payment is received----which means when the insurance company gets the check to Trovagene and they receive it. Revenue numbers should rise quickly in the next couple of quarters. Waiting for the CC.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The company is almost at CASH VALUE with $75 million is cash! 4 trials ongoing and highly positive results with WM and 8400 already. The company would not make a point to highlight that 90% of the patients in the highest dose cohort(so far) have shown positive response if they didn't understand the significance of that. And they are moving to SINGLE DOSE therapy in the next phase of the trial and moving to 2.4 and 3.6mg/kg in BOTH the WM and DLBCL trials. 8400 is VERY SAFE and well tolerated. And they have already SEEN the results through biopsy of melanoma patients in the 2125 trial. IF THAT TRIAL WERE NOT WORKING------it would be stopped due to futility in order to get these patients---who have very little time left---into a different therapy. But that is not happening-----and 2125 will be expanded into other cancers and other checkpoint inhibitors. THAT ALONE SHOULD BE WORTH at least a few dollars per share. Ridiculously overdone here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $2's or $4's tomorrow morning

    by pepsiberger May 10, 2016 2:36 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 10, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    What are you looking for in the report, do you think that most or all of the negatives have already been priced in, and what odds do you give for moving higher or lower tomorrow?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $2's or $4's tomorrow morning

    by pepsiberger May 10, 2016 2:36 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 10, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    I expect a volatile day. Management needs to demonstrate that the doctors are ordering tests and Reordering them, using them in the monitoring mode that Erlander spoke about at Deutsche Bank. Remember, this platform is not only used for detection, but more importantly for confirmation that treatment is working and showing response QUICKLY, and to determine if mutation load is increasing or decreasing or if mutation is developing so treatment can be altered accordingly. I would be fine with a few hundred tests in the first quarter since the insurance coverage has been so recent, but as the company stated in the past, the ratio of paid to non-paid tests has to increase dramatically. They said it had gone from 1:1 to 3:1 a few months ago and if that ratio increases that is a very good sign. There is no way to know how the market will react no matter what the news is, but the best situation would be for the company to indicate that everything is on track with little to no change in timetable, they expect to add more insurance panel coverage, the commercialization is progressing at the same speed as before Posard left, or give an even more optimistic outlook. A little more than an hour now.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Do yourself a favor and read the CC transcript. The company and ALL of the officers are extremely excited, not just about all of the compounds in development and trials underway, but more importantly the path to commercialization and VALUE of all of the components. That includes, as Milano stated, MANY partnership opportunities and expectations. At this level, a single partnership or out-licensing agreement with 9200 could pop the stock by 50-100% depending on who it is with and for how much. There are just too many positives to justify this low a stock price, and I believe that selling here is a mistake.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "Lastly, before closing, many of you have asked me personally, during one-on-one interactions exactly what here to Idera and since that question comes up very frequently, I felt it was worthwhile to address this in front of the broader audience today. Personally the principal driver is the 3GA platform, without a doubt the performance of 8400 and 2125 were very important and both drove potential to the important solutions for patients and substantial value drivers for Idera in the nearer term. However, when you endeavor to build a company, that can produce sustained growth over the long-term, the ability to have a powerful technology platform that can internally produce drug candidate after drug candidate for a large number of diseases is damn right exciting.

    Having previously led a company that was built through continuous business development execution, I can tell you that is a model that today has become far more tenuous and much for unpredictable. So I'm very excited and feel fortunate to be part of this company that has discovered and developed the technology platform that has a potential to overcome the limitations of earlier generation antisense and RNAi technologies.

    We have generated a great deal of preclinical data against a number of different targets in many different animal models. We have consistently knocked down the targeted gene in these experiments and now we are diligently working towards advancing our first candidate in the human proof-of-concept trials which we anticipate will further demonstrate the power of this exciting platform."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "....... we've also assessed the 3GA commercial opportunity along with the clinical and regulatory path for these candidates. This is helping us to identify which of these diseases enable us to past opportunity to conduct human proof-of-concept studies in 2017 with the goal of delivering this data as quickly as possible. So for the remainder of this year we'll be conducting a necessary activities to prepare for IND filing in early part of the 2017 with plans to enter the clinical shortly thereafter."
    "So I think if you look at the activities we've completed today with 3GA platform, you can begin to get a glimpse of how we envision the evolution. Every year we plan to identify additional gene targets and diseases that fit within the mission of Idera for development and ultimately commercializations. The opportunity exists for us to choose, to engage in additional collaborations, develop drugs for diseases that don't fit and to Idera's scope as we often see from companies that have the technology platform with broad applications and scope. These types of potential collaborations may also be sources of funding for our company to run our business and finance our development activities and interest. Overall, we're very excited about the prospects for 3GA and we really only just scratched the surface of what this technology can do and what it could represent for the future value to Idera."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • from the CMO, Joanna Horobin MD, " The first patient was enrolled in December of last year and the study continues to enroll according to plan as we move through the dose escalation cohort. We are successfully obtaining serial tumor biopsys in the study in all patients and then these are being subjected to comprehensive analysis and by the team of dedicated immunologists.
    Now importantly, these stage are being reviewed with us in real time, so we should be estimate to make truly informed decision about the selection of dose of 2125 to be used in combination regiments for further development. And of course, we're also getting early read on whether these combinations of clinical activity in PD1 refractory melanoma given another important unmet medical need."
    'We are very excited about the prospects of 2125 and look forward to seeing the first clinical data and its founding program as well. Anderson has been a tremendous partner in this effort and having such a high level of enthusiasm from some of the most respected thought leaders in Anderson for this approach is something we really benefit from."
    "I'll now turn the call over to Clayton who will spend little time discussing the strategy around the 3GA program. However, I will call it by saying how much I am looking forward to conduct the clinical studies for our first candidates from this very exciting platform. "

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What happened too all the kool-aid drinkers

    by mannchris686 May 10, 2016 10:19 AM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 10, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    I have no idea why you refer to anyone positive on the company and the stock as a kool aid drinker. Other than the executive shift I the last few weeks, what has changed about the company or it's products, science, and future? PLEASE! If you believe that PCM is going to change the future of cancer testing and catch on like we have all thought it would, then you remain positive DESPITE putting new executives in place that are JUST AS DRIVEN to see this company succeed as the last ones were------WITHOUT the distractions of outside interests. We do not need anything "impressive" tonight. All we need is confirmation that the company is on track to provide the growth in business and progress that we expected to see,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Adams is a Liar

    by bitesr May 9, 2016 3:23 AM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 May 9, 2016 9:57 PM Flag

    Schuh and Zaniboni were not forthright in the information they provided to TROV and kept key information about their full involvement and personal side interests out of the filings. Don't you think that withholding critical information is a punishable offense?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The first translational data from the 2125 trial is expected to be presented by Idera in the second half of this year. Now---believe it or not---the second half of the year begins in a little less than 8 weeks. A few patients have likely finished the trial already since it began in December with a 17 week treatment cycle and evaluation. I do not know how many patients have been enrolled in the trial already, but if the company is PRESENTING DATA later this year, then enrollment must be going pretty well. And when the company states "present data" I take that to mean that they intend on revealing it on a large national stage similar to ASH last year----possibly at AACR or ASCO in November. If enrollment was very rapid then the data will come sooner. This dip in the price will become a blip on the long-term chart and when the stock is in double-digits this drop will be looked back on as THE BEST TIME TO BUY IDRA STOCK! No reason for a selloff of this magnitude----very little downside risk-----and tremendous upside with numerous catalysts coming AND positive trial data already in the vault. Oh---and $75 MILLION in CASH.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Now---I will have to ask Bob if these patients are the ones in the original trial at 2.4mg/kg or if these are patients in the escalated dose trial. IF these are patients in the original trial and they are showing this type of response---that is REMARKABLE! Remember, data was only presented on 5 patients in each dose cohort at ASH. Now the company is reporting on 10 patients----with 9 of them showing positive response! In a relapsed/refractory patient population that has failed previous treatments(and one patient who responded and reached stable disease failed 6 previous attempts at treatment) these results are BETTER than ANY of the analysts had expected! They were predicting a 20-30% response and THAT would have been enough to warrant further development to commercialization. The results should be the same in DLBCL as with WM due to the same mutation, and BOTH trial will have full results available at the end of this year and FULL DATA available early next. VERY EXCITING!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

KERX
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