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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

mgm2020 1029 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2015 2:15 PM Member since: Mar 3, 2010
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  • rebounding. And with all the news and events coming up in the 4th quarter----which begins in just 6 weeks(with a very big immunotherapy conference presentation of the company's 2125/combination therapy data coming up in September----according to Bob Doody and made public in the 2Q report) this stock will rise considerably and surprisingly---which is why funds have also been adding and now have over a 50% position in IDRA--over 60 MILLION SHARES---a VERY IMPRESSIVE NUMBER with such a small company, but with such a bright future. Also adding TROV(with new coverage and a $9 PT by Leerink--read the report), and SUNE which is still announcing new projects.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 16, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    In a separate email, Bob confirmed the company is still interviewing CMO candidates. My guess is that the company wants to get the biggest and brightest star out there and they will keep looking until they find them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One telling quote

    by travelingfam4 Aug 16, 2015 6:21 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 16, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    And in the latest institutional holdings report, it was revealed that JP Morgan ADDED 1.1 MILLION shares---which was a 10-fold increase in their position. And now we also find out that the leader of the trial program with 2125/ipilumimab at MD Anderson is the CHAIR of the cancer immunotherapy department and one of the leading KOL's(key opinion leaders) in immunotherapy in the country. Again---we have been getting nothing but good news from the company over the last few months and the stock has not responded-----YET.(but funds are BUYING)NOW With a major immunotherapy conference coming up in September(according to Bob Doody) where the company will be formally presenting 2125 combination therapy data AND the 4th quarter(YES---the fourth quarter) beginning in just 6 weeks----when there will be at least 2 and possibly 3 more trials beginning(2125 melanoma, 8400 and DM, and 8400 DMD) AND we will find out the first TWO disease targets of the GSO's and when those trials will likely begin---NOW the shorts will likely cover as this is the only way they can unwind their position and take their profit before the stock really starts rising back to where it should be, and then solidly into the $4's and I expect the $5's BEFORE the WM data release. And any other positive news such as a 9200 partnership or a new CMO being named will just provide more fuel for the rebound. Funds are adding BEFORE the 8400 data for good reason and with good research backing them up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It shows that Bob knows what is going on here on the MB and that he wants to make sure we have the correct information when it comes to IDRA's advancing programs. And in this case this information is IMPRESSIVE and shows that we have some very strong backing at MD Anderson and very high level support. Here is the correspondence he sent:
    "Hey Mike,

    You may have noticed that I did try to clarify something on the message board the other day. I don't know why but the two times I have attempted to post something to clarify something I had read (obviously publicly available information) , it has disappeared.
    Anyway, knew your email address and you can post this to the board.
    One investor was writing about the doctors at MD Anderson who are leading our alliance and kind of bungled one of the doctor's names. His name is Patrick Hwu, MD. He is actually the Department Chair for the division of Cancer Medicine. You will find that he is one of the key opinion leaders in tumor immunology in the country.
    His bio is available on the MD Anderson website.
    I hope this is helpful to the folks on the board. I just wanted to clarify.

    Thanks,
    Bob

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 3 MILLION shares last quarter and some very nice additions. When a company at this stage of development has institutional ownership over 50%---THAT is very IMPRESSIVE and shows that the market(yes, the market, despite the low stock price) is betting fairly heavily right now that IDRA stock is going to rise----and rise significantly. Here is a partial list of additions and opened positions: State street added 1.9 million shares, JP Morgan added 1.1 million shares, Vanguard added 175,000, Deutsche Bank added 189,000, Healthcor management added 169,000, AQR Capital added 105,000, Ridgeworth Capital ESTABLISHED a new position with 484,000 shares, Group one added 244,000, Susquehanna added 150,000, Ascend Capital ESTABLISHED with 249,600 shares---and there are many others.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    JP Morgan

    by travelingfam4 Aug 14, 2015 5:55 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 15, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    I think a few more funds will be increasing their holdings or establishing positions in the third quarter to be in position when the company reports the WM data. Positive data and ANY CR's(complete responses) or positive response in the patients that were treated with Imbruvica unsuccessfully will be a positive JOLT to the stock. 8400 could turn out to be a wonder drug just like Imbruvica---except checkpoint inhibitors are only used in cancer, where TLR's play critical roles in inflammation, immune response, viral infection etc... I think that 2125 will also be a HOME RUN---and the 3ga---the GSO's---well, they are better, more effective, less toxic, need no vehicle, and carry much more potency than the compounds that have given ISIS a $6 BILLION market cap------and that is WITHOUT the TLR platform! The next run up 'goes into the $5's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We have seen this pattern before. In fact we've now seen it 3 times in the last 2 years. Look back at the stock price prior to the psoriasis results when the stock ran up from under $2 to over $6 in a matter of weeks. Look back to last year when the stock was down in the doldrums due to a LACK of news and ran from $2 to over $5 IN A MATTER OF A FEW WEEKS. Look back just to this spring when the stock got down to $2.65 and then ran back into the upper $3's. This company is a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT COMPANY now than it was---even 9 months ago, thanks to the addition of Milano as CEO and the new team of execs. When did Agrawal---as great a scientist as he is, EVER discuss the commercialization opportunities for the company's compounds or state he had a five year plan that included commercialization and all of the opportunities that come FROM the science, like the team discussed at the Wedbush presentation? Now we are EXPECTING WM data in just a few months and the company sounded very excited about that at the conference. There are also 2 other trials that will be starting very soon with 8400 in DM and DMD---2 PHENOMENAL OPPORTUNITIES! There is 92009 in IBD that the company will likely partner on. And the 2125 trial WITH MD Anderson will be starting in a few weeks for melanoma------and the company announced that they now have HUMAN DATA that they will be presenting which I assume will provide even more proof that this combination therapy may change the course of cancer treatment for many types of cancers. AND THEN THERE ARE THE GSO's---or 3G-A-S now. And the company is waiting for ALL of the evidence they need to prove to the company that these compounds will be as successful as they expect before rolling them out. Milano KNOWS how to ensure that his programs are SUCCESSFUL----PROFITABLE---and has he has said---will MAXIMIZE SHAREHOLDER VALUE. While the market is playing it's games now IS the time to load up before the next---and GREATEST RUN UP BEGINS!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jiminymoon - About Longs Losing Conviction

    by helpmeidra Aug 15, 2015 8:30 AM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 15, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    You are right. My 3 stocks have taken quite a haircut, and my posting has slowed quite a bit. But----it does give me, and everyone else the opportunity to add or average at prices we thought we wouldn't see again this year in order to increase profits when the stocks rise back up(and they will just as they have in the past). IDRA's presentation at Wedbush was practically GIDDY with excitiement about the future, TROV was just initiated by Leerink with a $9 PT and their ER was unbelievably positive, and SUNE----well---let's just say that when a company's stock is shot down because they are growing TOO FAST and have increased their estimates for installations in 2016 by 50%---you know there is a disconnect there. And the low price of oil isn't helping either---even though there is no relationship between oil and solar. IDRA will head back up to where it was a few weeks ago and surpass that fairly soon and there are conferences with new data coming up in September. The stock price is ridiculously low here, and just like the last 2 times it was down in the $2's---both of those were TREMENDOUS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES----and so is this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 14, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    If you want an update on catalysts just listen to the webcast of the Wedbush presentation on the Idera website. I encourage everyone to listen to it, and everyone that does will have a renewed sense of optimism and realize that even IF the stock does drop a little from here, with everything the company is doing, and setting 5 year goals for advancement AND commercialization---THIS is a time to be buying. They will be presenting NEW DATA on human tumor response with IMO 2125. They probably had this data already and presented that to MD Anderson along with their other data to show the validity of the combination therapy----and remember---IDRA was SOUGHT OUT by a few cancer centers to partner in the combo trial. LISTEN TO THE WEBCAST to lift your spirits----I have--------a few times.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • and to $3.88 9 days later. Still not the $5's or higher that we may see before the trials data is released, but that's how quickly this stock can turn and make a 50% move up. This indeed is the summer doldrums---but the move back up is coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For example, in early September we have an oral presentation at the World Conference on Lung Cancer in Denver, Colorado; and late September we will present additional lung and pancreatic data at the ASMO Congress in Vienna, Austria. We also expect to present new data at the triple NCI meeting in November in both lung cancer and colorectal cancer, and we remain on track to submit three manuscripts for publication by the end of this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 14, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Another positive recommendation and 50% higher price target. I feel that their target is very conservative. Given the stock's drop over the last couple of weeks the analyst wanted to come off as providing a rational(first) price target, which I'm sure will be upgraded following the company's presentations and/or journal publications which will provide more compelling evidence that TROV is the BEST PLAY in the liquid biopsy space. Remember how the stock really began to rise following the Euro lung conference and their data on lung cancer and their test results being more specific than eve tissue biopsy in detecting mutational status? The new data will not only reaffirm that, but I expect it to show similar data and response across different cancers, and again show that it AT LEAST as accurate as biopsy and more precise and sensitive than a blood test. That, plus the 45,000 shares of stock purchased by Schuh, Zaniboni, and the other director certainly provide compelling reasons to own this stock right now. With key presentations coming up in September and through the rest of the year the stock has a solid shot at being back in double figures very quickly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 14, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    Considering that there really haven't been insider buys in TROV until now, and the stock is 20% higher than it was at the start of the year(albeit down from a recent high of over $13), the 35,000 shares that were purchased by 3 insiders including the CEO, CFO, and Director are quite impressive. The ER CC was one of the most confident and optimistic that I have ever heard, and the company is far exceeding even the most optimistic predictions and expectations of physician interest and use. If you are an investor, those are ALL of the factors you want to see----the stock price has dropped(due to the market and a secondary at $8.75), the company has provided a glowing outlook and progress report, and insiders are BUYING!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Im a buyer in the 5's tomorrow.

    by jk4763 Aug 13, 2015 3:22 PM
    mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 13, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    Hey JK. Maybe we can be civil on this MB. You are right---things are getting very interesting here. How many companies do you find where the price of the stock is only a little higher than the cash value(at $2.50 per share in cash right now) with the growth prospects and industry adoption likely that TROV has? And such a glowing, confident and optimistic ER---AND---2 key insiders purchasing stock on the same day?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 13, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    That is indeed AMAZING. To have a company officer say that in a CC with such exuberance. Normally CC's are very conservative, but this one was anything but. There should be nothing but upside ahead from here, and the offering was NOT a reason to sell, other than the offering price itself being at $8.75. But---you HAVE to give the funds that are sinking money and investing in your company some incentive to buy-----and a 35% discount from the previous high just a week or 2 before that was a good incentive. But with the company now having $77 million in cash and the officers being blown away by both the testing accuracy data across all mutations AND the physician enrollment, the stock shouldn't remain at this price for long. When the lung cancer data came out at the European Lung conference showing results BETTER THAN BIOPSY----the stock started to take off. They have a few conferences coming up over the next few months, and that along with the journal publications will only provide the company with more positive publicity and exposure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • even the companies MOST optimistic numbers. 60 day goal reached in 12 days. Test results more precise, accurate, and sensitive than biopsy OR blood test due to the size of the sample, length of time in the bladder, and TROV's PATENTED enhancement technique. Insiders BUYING----NOT just taking options. AND-----the company has $77 MILLION IN CASH!! That is nearly $2.50/share in cash alone! This stock price is RIDICULOUSLY LOW! New presentations and peer-reviewed articles coming out and test capabilities expanding. Read the CC transcript if you haven't---or read it again even if you have because it paints a picture of one of the most exciting companies and compelling investments in both biotech and the liquid biopsy field. The stock will more than double in the next 6 months(or sooner) and that will only put it back to the same MC it was before the offering yet it will be much further ahead, more widely in use and adopted, and physicians will be DEMANDING this test and demanding that it s covered by most insurance plans.!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • they think the selling has become! And that is with NO value coming from the IDR stream! Here is the report(from TD Ameritrade):
    "
    Credit Suisse Smashes SunEdison Bear Thesis, Maintains Outperform Rating

    9:58 am ET August 13, 2015 (Benzinga) Print
    In a report published Thursday, Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin maintained an Outperform rating on SunEdison Inc (NYSE: SUNE), with a price target of $35, highlighting that the company had access to capital to generate returns.

    SunEdison announced a partnership with Dominion Resources, Inc. (NYSE: D) for "the 420 MWdc/320 MWac "Four Brothers" solar project in Utah," analyst Patrick Jobin said. Dominion plans to invest $500m for the tax equity and 50 percent interest in the cash flows. SunEdison would develop the project and retain 50 percent of cash flows.

    Jobin believes that SunEdison would be able to fund its contribution with $150m project-level debt, resulting in no net equity investment, albeit incurring opex.

    SunEdison also announced that it had successfully raised $280m in debt for Warehouse 2.0 to hold the Atlantic Power Assets. This puts rest to concerns that the company would not be able to close the warehouse.

    In the report Credit Suisse noted, "We continue to believe bears are barking up the wrong tree on funding concerns and the panic selling is severely overdone. Assuming SUNE sells assets to third parties…we arrive at ~$1.6/share of post-debt earnings power in 2016. Assuming a 10x multiple, which would be very conservative in our view, plus ~$6 value in LP interests in the yield vehicles and no value from the IDR stream, we arrive at a ~$22 "downside" valuation floor support level under a build and sell model."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both filed form 4's. Their ER was extremely upbeat, confident, and positive. They said they have never seen MDs show this much interest in any new testing platform before. Stated that their urine assay for circulating tumor DNA is MUCH more accurate and sensitive than ANY blood test because of the unique nature of the urine deposition of the tumor DNA and the much larger specimen size. Definitely worth a long look at this price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And the fact that their officers are stepping up and buying the stock now is a great vote of confidence. Just wait until the publications come out and the presentations wow the oncology world---but don't wait to buy the stock----the CEO and CFO aren't(any more).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mgm2020 mgm2020 Aug 12, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    Actually they said that the TLR science was "ahead of it's time" and they didn't understand how to apply it properly. Now that overall science has advanced, and in particular, checkpoint inhibitors have been developed, there are many more applications for the TLR's---for one. And, of course, the third generation antisense is finally going to be a reality in a few months and the company has identified 15-20 likely targets, which they will announce the first 2 this year ad are concentrating on compounds that will the most likely to head straight for commercialization.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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