Enjoyed reading your thoughtful post, lqk.
Further, 2U Inc. can lay claim to none of the subject content- that becomes the property of the college it is servicing.
I frankly do not see how TWOU is going to make any appreciable money, ever.
TWOU Correction: Cash was $104M as of June 30, 2014 not $7M I reported above.
$7M Cash was ending amount for previous quarter.
Company increased the outstanding shares to about 40M from about 8M in the most recent quarter reported.
Post 2 of 2 TWOU short thesis:
....to take advantage of some of the exemptions from reporting requirements that are applicable to other public companies that are not emerging growth companies, including not being required to comply with the auditor attestation requirements of Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, or Sarbanes-Oxley Act, reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation..."
Further Disclosure: Please do your own research before investing.
I am not a professional.
Stock trading is very dangerous. You could lose all your money- many have.
Disclosure: I am short TWOU.
Post 1 of 2
2U Inc. (TWOU) is a recent IPO (March 28, 2014), in business since 2008 offering on-line education structure for colleges.
A) 2U Inc. is in a competitive industry. Keen competitors like Pearson (PSO) (1.2B Cash) and Wiley (JWA) (486M Cash) are already established on-line learning servers versus relative newcomer 2U Inc (TWOU) (7M Cash).
B) 2U's net loss this second reporting quarter was -$10.595M versus the first reporting quarter (March 31, 2014) of -8.895M and currently carries $92.02M negative shareholder equity !
"We have incurred significant net losses since inception, and we expect our operating expenses to increase significantly in the foreseeable future."
C) Lockup expiring September 24, 2014 and may have already started from the looks of current pop and drop:
As of April 30, 2014, we had outstanding 40,212,605 shares of common stock outstanding. Of these shares, substantially all will be available for sale in the public market beginning September 24, 2014 following the expiration of lock-up agreements between the underwriters and our officers, directors, holders of much of our outstanding common stock. The representatives of the underwriters may release these stockholders from their lock-up agreements with the underwriters at any time and without notice, which would allow for earlier sales of shares in the public market.
First opportunity to sell as new company in April saw at least3 insiders dump 1.054M shares . Expecting more of same by end of Sept.
My first target is 13.63, next is $13 (the IPO price) and on down (many options were granted at 3.53).
Not fully reporting:
"We are an “emerging growth company” as defined in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012, or JOBS Act, and we intend ...
From this morning's PR:
"Financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014
At June 30, 2014, we had cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments of $34.7 million, compared to $59.7 million at December 31, 2013. Our cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2014 include the receipt of $15.0 million from PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDL), which we were required to borrow following the FDA's approval of dalbavancin."
59.7 -34.7+15 borrowed= $40M qtrly burn rate. With $34.7M cash on hand and launch expense, DRTX needs to raise money this quarter.
DRTX met I/B/E/S Estimate of a .67 loss per share.
Company will likely do a secondary share offering.
With its recently approved intravenous antibiotic drug, a $150M by 2021 market will now be split three ways (see below).
With cash need, MDCO approval and buyout rumors debunked, "Sell the news"" expected to follow.
news of one of the three competitors:
FDA approves The Medicines Co's acute skin infection drugBY Reuters — 6:23 PM ET 08/06/2014
By Natalie Grover
Aug 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved The Medicines Co's (MDCO) single-dose intravenous drug to treat acute bacterial skin infections, the agency's third approval for the same condition this year.
Drugmakers need to constantly devise new therapies to fight bacterial infections as patients build up resistance to older antibiotics.
All the three drugs target acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI), caused by the Gram positive strain of bacteria. These infections involve deep tissue or are associated with an underlying disease such as diabetes.
Medicines Co's (MDCO) treatment, Orbactiv, is in the same class of drugs as generic vancomycin, the standard-of-care for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a serious Gram-positive infection.
ABSSSI, which leads to hospitalization of about 5.2 million patients in the United States and Western Europe each year, often involves intravenous therapies that require hospitalization over multiple days, the company said.
A single 1200 mg dose of Orbactiv comprises a full course of therapy - unlike vancomycin which requires twice-daily intravenous infusions for seven to 10 days - giving it an edge over competition.
The regulator in recent months approved Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc's (CBST) Sivextro and Durata Therapeutics Inc's Dalvance for the same condition.
Sivextro, available for intravenous and oral use, is administered once daily for six days. Dalvance, an intravenous drug, is gi
DRTX Slide continues in AH session..
@ 7:17PM: down 58 pts to 15.00 from today's close of 15.58, 8.3K vol
There were paint jobs jobs for 10 and 15 shares, subsequently
DRTX Continues To Slide In AH Session
@ 6:30PM: down 28 pts to 15.30 from today's close of 15.58, 8.22K vol.
There was a 1,000 SH dump @ 15.30 @ 6:08PM
SCTY Down .81 AH. There was a Big 200,000 dump at 4:41PM. Likely reaction to FSLR bad report tonight.
Significant number of insider shares sold recently.
Consensus is SCTY will also report poorly Thursday, AH.
Notwithstanding the below article assertion, SCTY carries a very bearish rating.
Anything over 70 could be a good short, if one is inclined to play Earnings
I'm short a couple of remnant pieces around 67.90, average.
SolarCity expected to report a loss
BY MarketWatch — 4:13 PM ET 08/04/2014
Installer shows investors it can tap cheap funding
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- SolarCity Corp. (SCTY) is expected to report second-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, and investors expect the solar-power installer to widen its quarterly loss.
SolarCity (SCTY) is still a Wall Street favorite, however, with most investment banks that cover the stock rating it a "buy."
SolarCity (SCTY) last month pushed through its third and largest debt deal, selling asset-backed securities worth $201.5 million on better terms than the prior sales -- and showing Wall Street it can access low-cost financing.
The company, which is the U.S.'s top residential solar installer, also won accolades in June when it said it bought solar-panel maker Silevo Inc.
Analysts are waiting to hear SolarCity (SCTY) elaborate on its capital expenditure goals for the next few months. The company has said Silevo's planned solar-panel factory would be followed by one or more larger plants.
Here's what to expect:
Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect SolarCity (SCTY) to widen its second-quarter net loss to $73.3 million, or 99 cents a share, compared with a loss of 31 cents a share a year ago.
Revenue: Sales are seen at $63.2 million, from $37.9 million in the second-quarter of 2013.
Stock reaction: Shares of SolarCity (SCTY) are up 68% in the past 12 months,
Rumor of buyout lacks substance
PPS @ 15.90 is 24x's tangible book value (.66)
Losing money every quarter- big miss last quarter
Limited pricing power
Will add if hype continues..
Firm, modest rise in AH session reveals split opinion where this ones going, short term.
Against shorting were these considerations:
*Upgrades may be coming following good Report
*There's head room
*Market somewhat repressed last few days so there could be more pop
* Closed HOD Friday (yikes, saw that afterwards)
Why I took a starter:
* Insiders selling like CRAZY throughout July at levels $30-$40 below current levels.
* Reaching saturation point in its main business.
* Will be bumping up to several competitors like Salesforce in new avenues planned.
* Pretty good gap up already
* RSI fairly high on the daily
* Trading 10x's tangible book
* Mkt cap $22B for social media- seems a little goo goo for a company making a few mil a qtr
* Wanted to add short positioning in case we see more weakness Monday
We'll see said the blind man.
Breaking down now.
ZLTG down 68 points @ 16.11 (-4.05%), 463K at 12.:35PM
Reply to budfox:
1) Secondary Offering was 66.50. Return there would be -6.00 from today's PPS.
I am targeting below the Offering price.
2) Thompson Reuters/Versus rating accurately stated as SELL.
Versus is Thompson Reuters' opinion.
Likely, you are looking at the I/B/E/S Mean which is a weighted average of numerous analysts that Thompson Reuters offers.
#1 Ford Equity: SELL
#2 Columbine Capital: UNDERPERFORM
#3 Thompson Reuters/Versus: SELL
#4 Jefferson Research: SELL