Fed may do some bending over backwards to keep market up tomorrow ahead of GDP on Thurs. Still think aapl will be in the $94 to $98 range for tomorrow. Afternoon will be the test after Yellen gives some more BS. at this range it's only a trade not a long-term buy or a short - at least for a few weeks. Then I think the Euro banks will cause a massive sell-off.
I have a strong feeling the Fed will give another BS reason not to raise rates, while at the same time saying the economy is doing well. Should have a rally after Fed. Then Thursday. GDP numbers will miss - so the excuse will be no rate hike and some more rally. Then next 2 weeks we should see some bad news out of the Euro banks which will start the sell in May up to the British vote on staying in the EU.
Holy cow that is a lot of downside if the market just trades sideways for a few weeks. If it rockets to new highs - I see that vix dropping to 13 - 14ish - that is about 25% downside for the vix and 50% for UVXY.
I would not be shock to see the S and P take out the 2130's after the Fed next week. Frankly it's crazy given the weak earnings. Most stocks that are beating or even missing are still padding their lowered eps numbers with share buybacks and one-time items. Still it just feels like they are going to push this crooked game to new highs before pulling the plug.
I would say that 2175 on the s/p is possible over the next 2 weeks.