one thing that I am absolutely sure about: the market is closer to a top then a bottom! In the most choo choo world maybe another 30% higher - but with 80% downside - I still think we have max 10% upside
When a company misses both rev and earnings AND guides lower than est but rallies close to the high - you know it's nearing the end. It also means that people are so afraid to buy anything else they trade up the less risky #$%$ in the market.
you are a bubble head - do you know what will happen if NG goes into the filling season with say only 900 bcf? As opposed to normally 2+ trillion? All they need to do is get 1 major weather service to predict a hot summer and NG could be squeezed to $10 very short order.
Wait for the May contract to get into the $5 dollar range - ONLY then will it be a safer play.(assuming we don't get some even worse weather or a wacky withdraw number of -300)
with $1.50 gap between the front month and the next contract - it is just sooo scary being in a short position right now. In a few days the April contract will be the current month and drop to $5 range, meaning not much change to DGAZ or it will move much higher to meet up closer to the current contract in the $6 dollar range - which could see as much as a 50% decline for Dgaz. My feeling is that over the next week the April will level somewhere around $5.50 or a 30% drop for DGAZ for just under $2 which should trigger some extra margin selling down to $1.85 - $1.90 range.
At that point I would say it would be a fairly safe bet especially if the May contract has come up to the $5 range as well. May above $5 would definitely mean a buy on DGAZ - but like I said - DGAZ will be sub $2 then.
If it is a very hot summer(which I don't think so given the frozen great lakes) - electric power plants and large industrial complexes start to crank up the Natural Gas back up generators. 50% of electricity is still produced by coal, but coal is a slow mover - when demand is more than coal+nuclear+hydro can met then Natural gas secondary plants are fired up to make up the shortfall - that is where you get HG boost from high AC demand.
not only does this ETF suffer from roll decay - having to short a lower contract price - which has then gone higher - every move is 3x - so you get a decay if you have wild swings up and down- if she drops 33% one day from $3 to $2 - then she would have to go up 50%!! just to get back to $3
Nat gas might have a bump net week going into the report which could take this down to $2 bucks - but the decay from these couple percent moves daily is just deadly for this ETF.
As far as I am aware - they did not say we "sold" X amount or earned X amount - and the numbers were different - that would be fraud. Giving guidance and targets are ESTIMATES - if they are not met - it means everything from bad management to production delays out of their control. AMD are not financial advisors - the lawsuit is trying to paint them as such and therefore has no merit. It will be dismissed.
So what you are confirming is essentially what I said - they could not met production or sales goals that they set - sorry in manufacturing it happens ALL the time - every manufacture in the world has delays and problems - when a company indicates that they are "expect" to meet a certain goal and don't - the stock price usually gets punished. But going after a corporation - for missing it's own guidance is a fools game. Legal fees will be virtually nothing - because the plaintiffs have NOTHING. AMD are NOT investment advisors - they are not responsible for the ups and downs of the market - that is another reason these suits go no-where. Funny that most of this happened 18 months ago and these are only coming out now - likely means people bought in the $2-4.50 range and did not sell above that, then AMD climbed back to the $4.50 range which would have been the upper end of where people invested. Now back to $3.40's they are looking at losses = too bad so sad.
Of course I don't think AMD is a stellar company - and only invested recently @$3.40 - but I think based on some low balling in their recent guidance $4.25 a share is not out of the question in the next 3 months as long as the overall market does not crater. So that's a 20%+ return - which I am fine with. Could we get 10% downside on a market downturn - sure - but I am betting this bull needs to pull in a few more suckers before it's done. 1830's on the S/P and I will sell and go short some market etf's - whether AMD has hit my targets or not.
You have to prove that AMD lied to investors about their earnings - this is extremely hard to do without proof they doctored the books. You can't win based off a companies sales projections. If the company says we expect to sell X amount and they sell less than X - it's just a estimate - they have no control over purchases. The only time any lawsuits have been successful against companies is when they reported numbers that were fraudulent. If you could win against a company missing expected earning - 99% of companies would be sued - because they all miss sooner or later.
That the most comical thing I read on these forums - the lower it goes - shorts getting scared? Scared of losing profits? Most people shorted a long time ago and at much higher levels. There is not a lot of short fear or you would see much bigger daily swings.
Seems kind of suspicious if you have to wait 18 months to make a lawsuit on stuff that was out in the public domain for all that time.
sorry my last post was in response to this post.
Which is mostly BS - big investors and MM - want to see double digit revenue stream growth - in their core business - not cost cuts and investment income padding the earnings. If the economy turns south IBM will be hit very hard with virtually no organic growth. That is just fact.
No most commentary is focased on how there is no revenue growth at IBM - only rising earning from share buybacks and cost cutting. So the non-pumpers are noticing
IBM still is a cheap stock on a P/E basis - but if the market starts to focas on growth then the P/E does not matter
For the year they bought back 70 million shares
Just stripping the stock buyback out of the EPS and they would have missed badly
they can beat earnings through the share buybacks and layoff + other cost cuts - but they can't life revenue that way.