I think oil price is holding NG back
at this point there is at most 10% downside to NG and as much as 100% upside. Jan is looking to be about 2/3 of the month below avg temps and 1/3 slightly above for most of the gas using states. Below $3 NG with inventories at their avg would be extremely unusual for a Jan in these conditions. Only reason that NG has fallen so much is Oil imho.
With a colder then normal Jan I am almost certain it will retest the $3.80 area of past resistance. Getting into the $4's again will depend on how the temps play out towards the end of Jan and beginning of Fed.
There is no short here. Long trade make the most risk/reward sense.
Truth be told - I think the big bounce yesterday and today was a lot due to Talisman Energy being bought out for $9 billion. But they were way oversold in general. This report will not due too much IMO because we are half way through Dec. Of course nothing would surprise me with NG and Oil being so low. (not like most heating customers would flip/could flip to oil anyways.)
As I have said before - It's a #$%$ shoot - these thurs could be the turn but it's hard to say about tomorrow. A 3rd bounce off the low would be very interesting. I think NG needs to get above $4 before there is any sold move to $4.40 - this could be a challenge with oil falling.
What did NG used to trade with oil in the past? was in 10x or 15x? of course winter season is always been its own animal
UGAZ, BOIL, and HNU.to all hit there 52 week lows exactly - weird - 3 NG etf's bouncing right on their 52 week lows
Bounce right at the 52 week low on a few of the NG etfs - I don't know about NG itself. Vol was a big spike around that time to. What do the technicals say? Or does it not really matter and only storage will matter this week?
Interested buying or coincidence? Why can't I ever capture the low!!
It happens. I thought there would be another dip, so I got my final lot. Looks like it is bouncing a bit above the open price. We shall see. Fingers crossed that this is the final turn to move to an uptrend.
No gap up this AM - unless you were just playing with another poster. Anyways I bought my final lot down here at the open. Will hold for any bigger move back into the $4's - then see. Good luck to us Longs.
If we have a big gap and fade - I might sell 1/3 again at the open. What price point do you see UGAZ bouncing off - what is the lower BB now and any resistance levels?
I would not say I know better than you. If I knew even 1/5th of your chart skills I would be a lot richer - lol
Still did not want to go full in just yet. Maybe what to see what happens this Thursday. But since we are getting into winter, I think a retest of the $4.40 area is possible soon. However, with oil price decline - all bets are off. NG could follow oil, NG could bounce around, NG could take off if oil traders move over. It's a real #$%$ shoot.
LOL - someone gives me a thumbs down - anyways - bough back in a 25% so up to 75% of total long position again. Will buy the next 25% on any further dip and fill. How's it going ThouChart?