I think there is some manipulation going on here, conspiracy theory to explain ridiculous pps!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
andrea, I like your thinking on this, very realistic, I'm a bit more conservative. However, if they can get another product in the mix, which they seem to be developing, then I can see much greater value for their intellectual property.
If that is the case what the heck are we doing invested in this thing? Last year the catalyst popped the stock to $5.40. Now, if we get partnership news regarding p3 and the expected pps is going to top out at $3 this notion would make this campaign a foolish endeavour. I am hoping the H.C. Wainwright is more accurate in their prognostication.
You are preaching to the choir my friend. This theory is all we have right now to keep sanity. When Avastin was approved this stock should have taken off like a rocket!
I did not know that the warrants have that effect on the cost basis. I do believe it is getting close to s#%$ or get off the pot time. They have to initiate a p3 now. Any prolonged delay will be a red flag. I for one hope that they have interested big pharma to partner. I will end here because I do not want to think negatively as to the alternatives if they don't or can't partner.
I wanted to update this post to tell the readers that I made a terrible call here, which is obvious. Nothing has changed regarding the company’s future and pending catalysts to warrant such a steep drop in price after the direct offering. I was a bit dumbfounded because I could not for the life of me understand why this would drop? Institutional investors are buying $10M worth at $1.71/share, logic would state that these guys would not invest $10M without some expectation of a big return in the future. No one in their right mind would put up that kind of cash without doing proper due diligence. So what is the catch here? One theory is a bit complicated, but assuming you understand the structure of the market and the major players involved I will try to explain it. First off, read this post on the Richard Wyckoff method to how the hedge fund guys do it, The Secret Trading Strategy From The 1930s That Hedge Funders Don’t Want You To Know About. It is important to realize that in today’s market, the big boys (hedge funds, institutions, etc) are a lot more sophisticated than they have ever been, go to Chat With Traders and listen to a few podcasts from excellent traders and you will understand what I mean by sophistication. Basically, OXGN had a very few outstanding shares (OS) of around 20M shares PRE offering and now their OS is approximately 27M shares after. At a market cap of around $32M PRE offering, a $10M raise equates to about 6 million shares or 30% of the OS. Using the ideas presented in the Business Insider article above it looks like institutional investors wanted to build a position in OXGN ahead of the upcoming catalysts, but it would have been impossible for them to build such a large position with a low average given the very small amount of shares traded daily. Therefore, the institutional investors agree to a direct offering from the company at an agreed upon price. In OXGN’s case that price was $1.71/share. Overall market reaction to news of a raise is usually negative because you are diluting existing shareholders, people cant understand why they are raising, they panic, and then they sell their shares which cause the price to drop further. On top of that, the institutional investors that bought the offering begin to short sell shares to get the price even lower. At the same time they are shorting the stock, they are building up their long position at a lower average. Once they have accumulated all of their position at an average that is right for them they will begin to cover their short position. This cause the stock price to rise and rise and rise into the next catalyst. When the news finally hits the market, now all of a sudden their is a lot of new buyers that want in and the institutional investors dump their shares on the new retail buys transferring the shares from strong hands to weak hands. Of course this is all just a theory as I have no hard clear evidence, but it is the only way to make sense of this. Also, if you think this kind of stuff doesn’t happen in the market then you might want to take a step back and do some reading/studying. Hope this helps!
Fraud, scam, chicanery, they have one more dilution before it crashes under a dollar and de-lists. Pockets are getting stuffed while they purposely run this into the ground. Pay-offs from Roche so they can pick up the intellectual property for pennies? People are boasting that they picked up cheap shares today, really? I call bull$53&!
4:00, wallow in self pity; 4:30, stare into the abyss; 5:00, solve world hunger, tell no one; 5:30, jazzercize; 6:30, dinner with me - I can't cancel that again; 7:00, wrestle with my self-loathing... I'm booked. Of course, if I bump the loathing to 9, I could still be done in time to lay in bed, stare at the ceiling and slip slowly into madness. But what would I wear?