I call'em as I see'em. I am not short PBR nor bash it without explanation. I have a tiny interest of a rocking 1000 dollars. I am positive PBR LONG TERM. This is NOT going to be a rocket ship to the stars. PBR is the poster boy for how bad a company can be managed. Somewhere crude is going to fall to panic levels. and suck down PBR. The Saudis say they are not going to cut production nor are the fackers. It is suicide by crude.If PBR rises from here on in then I missed the train. I don;t think so. Feliz Navidad
Unfortunately there is more to this company than cheap crude. Let's see what happens at the trials and criminal investigations. Plus when the SEC comes calling, let's see what the traders---the folks who really control most of the traded shares---think about an SEC investigation. Plus you seem to count out that the Brazil government, always one to surprise, who will do something stupid to make this company and stock get hammered. PBR is going to use every penny they make to service long term debt and subsidize the people. They will have to cancel short term projects like the other energy companies have already. Those crude contracts are NOT perpetual. Yes, you caught the early express to profits and I saute you. Lows will come again. Hold or take some profits. profits are never bad.
Yea, the PPS goes up 12% and happy days are here again, we hit bottom and the price is going to $20 a share by the 4th of July. You might be right. But listen to reason. There is no question that low crude prices and NG prices will hurt PBR. The company will make less money with what they sell. They have to make money to service their huge debt. In a pinch Brazil pays the interest---that is one advantage of a "socialist" country. In a capitalist economy the outcome is different.
Leaving out the scandal of the company, unless the president is involved, the price of crude will not sustain a rally. You have to pay the piper for all this cheap crude. This is econ 101. Show me the demand for all this oil and gas. If demand is there then it will be $20 by the 4th of July. Answer that. Luck to all
Yea, we all know PBR is going to the promised land of eternal profits, but not int a straight line. As long as the cartel and the frackers are bent on committing crude suicide by refusing to cut production, the price of crude will fall. PBR cannot make money with the low price of crude. if the scandal touches La President, well God forbid. Luck to all
As the price of crude goes lower so will PBR. That is the fact jack. If the scandal touches Dilma---how low is low? Add those together and the blood will be waist high. Luck to all.
Thank you for the post. The translation--or maybe the writing--was a little awkward. In defense of Dilma---hard to do----No person can run the country. It is a country with growing pains. No president is going to come into power and raise gasoline prices. No one. That would be suicide. Corruption, as we all know, is in the character of MOST Latin American countries. The cop takes bribes of $10, the oil executive takes bribes of $10 million, same thing. You can blame Dilma, as she certainly has much to blame, but I know (this also applies to the USA) --We elect people who are just like we are. Blame Brazil.
Sure, but the question is when. It sure will not be soon. That will ONLY happen if the oil companies and cartels cut crude production. tHey have not. There is no world demand to get the price of crude that high, certainly not $95. No demand and high supply means ONLY one thing and that is low prices. The company PBR is another thing. Let's NOT forget that the company is going through several scandals and criminal prosecution of company officials. Add the sucky economy in Brazil and your prediction is right....maybe this time next year at the earliest. We will test new lows again. Economics is pretty clear on this. Large supply and no demand is low PPS of stocks. Every bloody time..
Hold on dude.Yes, $6 is really cheap and if you bought there bravo. BUT there is still 7 1/2 miles of bad road ahead for this company and oil companies, especially ones that are used by a country to subsidize energy of its people like BRAZIL. If OPEC continues to commit suicide by oil production the price will go to---God only knows---my guess $35 or lower. Somewhere there will be a panic at the Go-go and PBR , with the rest of the oil companies will be sucked into the abyss.. In other words I don;t think $6 is the ultimate low.
So tell me, how is this oil company going to make money when the price of crude is at or will be shortly, cost most to get it out of the ground than sell it? No company or Cartel can make money with oil at $45 or even $60. Since the world's oil company are pumping like a teenager on Viagra, what happens when the supply cannot be stored? The more we pump and increase supply, without increased demand, the lower the price goes----- Econ 101. Just wait until inventories numbers are released. Add to that the on going corruption scandal. I believe these teenage investors have premature #$%$ of money. I am all for PBR. I am not short, but these are legit concerns and need to be answered.
Let me see if I got this right. the oil cartel is going to keep on pumping even with supply growing. No oil producers are stopping production. I mean, seriously folks this the cartel trying to pump its way out of low crude prices which makes no sense. How long before there is no place to store all the oil? This is suicide by crude. Econ 101 says in a supply and demand situation of the supply goes up....hell, you already know this.
The question is how low will it go before the cartels have to cut production. $35 WTI. $1 gasoline?
This is not a bottom. The price of crude will fall as they continue to pump their way out of too much supply. This is suicide by crude. PBR is well managed. God love Brazil, New lows await. When the Saudis give into demands we ride.
I say great for the guys and gals who bought down here. But you really think the good old bad days are over for PBR? Be real. The price of crude alone will hobble this company, not to mention what legal problems they will have going forward. And never count out the Brazilian government doing something counter share holder stupid. Remember seeing one robin does not make springtime. To those who timed it perfectly---rock on dudes and dudettes. I'm not negative, only thoughtful. I'm a long too.
There is NO good news for PBR that would make Barclays upgrade. None. What good news? The ongoing scandal? Arrests of company officials? Auditing company refusing to sign of? Price of crude? We are all in uncharted territory with PBR. I suggest buy when there is high volume down and a capitulation then buy a little. Or when the PE ratio reaches 1.