Sometime mid year pSivida will be releasing pre-clinical sub Q data for their biologic
platform Tethadur. A huge candidate for such a platform would be Humira, in either
a biosimilar or biobetter. Here's an article describing what's on the table for Abbvie.
Would it be worth the effort teaming up with pSivida?
"The critical investment debate for AbbVie … rests on a single issue--the outlook for the estimated $16 billion Humira base business post the U.S. patent expiration in 2016," he wrote in a report seen by Benzinga. And Baum expects that business to take a hit beginning in 2018, with Humira revenues declining from $16 billion at their peak in 2017 to $6 billion in 2022, thanks to biosimilar rivals.
While analysts agree the Abbott ($ABT) spinoff will need more than its recent hep C approval Viekira Pak to fill Humira's giant shoes, some of Baum's peers think forthcoming data on the company's cancer candidates is enough to keep the stock climbing upward. Monday, Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Holford stood by his Buy rating and $80 target for that reason, Benzinga notes.
Industry watchers, too, have predicted that biosimilars may take a while to gain traction even after their approval--and so far, none of them have received the FDA's green light. Novartis ($NVS) CEO Joe Jimenez, for one, has predicted that the tipping point wouldn't come around till 2020.
When it comes to Humira, though, Baum disagrees. "At year 3, biosimilars will achieve 36% U.S. market share in Humira patients and 25% in established Humira patients," he wrote. He also expects "European price discounts to be steeper due to reference pricing on brand and progressive discounting on biosimilars."
AbbVie CEO Richard Gonzalez
Of course, there are still moves AbbVie can make to bolster its position and decrease some of the reliance on its aging behemoth. One of them is to lock down some value-enhancing M&A, which it almost did this summer with an agreement to buy Ireland's Shire ($SHPG) before new U.S. tax rules forced it to backtrack. CEO Richard Gonzalez has told investors not to expect a follow-up $55 billion deal, but that smaller ones could be in the company's future. And if they're not? AbbVie's valuation "looks challenging," Baum wrote.
Nope. Only really post on this MB, Alimera's once in awhile. Tro' is a longtime investor here, stops in once in awhile to say hi. That's about it.
Did you miss the part where it's a "Death Sentence". There are few options that would be called good. Killing the tumor is a very good place to start.
JD, Actually, there are two articles about pSivida in this issue. The other goes more into the biologic delivery system. Looks like the news is starting to get out and Paul Ashton should be getting some much deserved recognition.
You're right here Hernando. I'm truthfully puzzled by the market sentiment to Alimera right now. It could be that someone is just playing with the stock, but Alimera will start to generate lots of revenue. Given the FDA saga of the NDA, it's apparent now that there will be a place for long term sustained release FA. Though I'm still a PSDV investor, I couldn't help but take a position in ALIM. Dan Myers will sell this well in the US. The retina doc's appear to be very much behind it. I'm still sorry for being a doubter.
The new issue of "on drug delivery" has a great article by Paul Ashton. It wraps up the entire focus of pSivida and how back of the eye disease and sustained delivery is of such importance. The article demonstrates how this little company is positioned well for moving the whole industry forward. For those new to pSivida, it's a must read in gaining insight into the overall investment thesis. More importantly, for those who are hard on Paul Ashton, you'll see why this CEO is worth his weight. It's a must read.
Kool. Noticed it too. Both of these companies will make a big move this year. Just hope the macro dynamics are stable enough to give them a chance. I'm sure we'll all be around either way.
Now it may not be this CC or next, but it will be this year. The shorts will cover and this company will start to earn some respect. It seems DME and long duration steroid therapeutics will win the favor of retina doc's. Anti veg-f's just won't do it for this indication.
We'll see. It's a death sentence, so anything to kill the tumor looks promising. This can kill everything within a cm. So, if you had pancreatic cancer, you'd be all over it and be saying
"BRING IT ON"! I hope it doesn't happen to you, because then you would take it seriously.
Doc, Why REGN and why the wait for Tethadur? I've always thought it would be Roche in the evaluation agreement. Lucentis is the market laggard with Eylea taking market share. Please explain your thoughts if you can. Thanks
Well let's go for 20% of it and we'll still be pretty good. If you believe.....buy some ALIM too. The pipeline in PSDV will warrant it's own thought of investment. Durasert will travel far beyond ophthalmology.
Kool. It could start to be several things in the pSivida story. Take your pick. I still like Alimera at their current price. Won't take much in sales to move the needle for both companies. Either way, as Doc retina pointed out, DME is not being served well by the anti Veg-f's, that could bode well for Iluvien. Then the Durasert technology will be realized as a train to carry many different small molecule drugs in sustained release over the longest of time. It should be fun to finally watch things evolve.
Yep Murph.....we all drank the KOOLAID! But the stock will see $10 by years end. Call me out when we don't get there.
Got it. Great insight. It does back up what Paul Ashton was referring to the the last call. 250K/yr patients would be a big move for ALIM and PSDV in terms of revenue.
Good lists guys. It is a bit odd how the SP has done what it has done over the months. I'm sure there are those who are trying to keep this company out of the 5 buck range.....until it's time to go higher, just seems that way.