Love the thread guys. But, who and why would any suitor sign up for ALIM? pSivida has rights to the very same drug but for a different indication. Plus, pSivida has complete audit rights and access to all marketing proposals and plans. Which of the Big's would want that? For these reasons the suitor for ALIM would be looking at pSivida as well. That opens the door for a dual acquisition. I like ALIM and have picked up shares. I think they'll make a big dent in DME, the Big's will take notice and they won't be happy.
Interesting that an oral med can have an effect on DME, a back of the eye disease. Too bad the data is not substantial enough to sway the FDA . I checked with pSivida IR on this matter, IR checked with pSIvida. I just got this back from IR, I did not know the threshold for FDA approval but here it is:
"FDA has communicated that it wants either an average improvement of 15 letters or statistically significant difference in percentage of patients improving by 15 letters. Shortest duration of improvement is a 12 month period".
So, the AMPE pop this morning is not going to hold water. Back of the eye diseases are tough to handle. Ashton always said that drops don't work for back of the eye, so oral is really a question mark don't you think?
Since this MB is not about what a "effed up" company Elon is, it's nice to come and visit the dark side of a fallen MB. Though psychosis has taken over, it sure is fun to see what levels losing money can take the human spirit. Hang in there. I sold at $2.50 and am glad I did. Will I re-enter? Not for awhile, but I'll keep enjoying the
nut job with 34 aliases.
You guys are missing the point here. I'm not a short, but the SP is going to under 5 bucks and soon. Until you have real data, not speculation of good data you're SP will be under pressure. Sorry.....Shorts lick their collective chops for opportunities like this.
Tom, We've been waiting for these catalysts for a long time haven't we. At the same time, it's not that holders of pSivida stock are selling. I think they're hoping and waiting for the very things we are. Even short attacks are few these days. It seems someone is there to buy the dips. At the same time, there are sellers of the 10 cent pop. So, what's my point......Any of the positives you mentioned could happen tomorrow. The market seems content with keeping pSivida right where it is. No one's getting excited about moving in or moving out. I do like the fact that there are now big global's looking at Durasert and Tethadur. So, there are a few companies more familiar with what pSivida is doing than the market is. Typical. I guess that what risk is all about. Thanks for checking in.
It's a data issue. Let's face it the data will either drive the SP up or down. The last bit of dat is a great example.
Latanoprost has better efficacy, just all by itself. I'm not short, but it makes a lot more sense at this point. The company at this point is way over valued. All you're doing is spending money.
md, You begin to wonder, it may not be the drug so much as it is a sustained release method. Ashton keeps talking about drugs that may work in a sustained release platform (re-purposed drugs). I'd say pSivida goes after wet now. Obviously, a drugs efficacy is a factor, but the overall efficacy of the drug may be big time enhanced with micro gram exposure on a daily basis, and over the years. I've watched LPTN for years. Sad their drug candidates aren't working as hoped.
JD, I guess we've both pondered these very points regarding big pharma interest. Perhaps sbwill's point is well taken. If there is limited analyst coverage on a company like pSivida, then until there is, there may be no particular hurry for any of the bigs to jump in. But, let's get back to your revenue points and pSivida. Medidur data will rock. I think they hit it out of the park with efficacy and safety data. Assuming so, and jumping to approval of the NDA in 17' what sort of market share could pSivida expect out of the 175K/annual posterior Uveitis patients? Lets' just say 15% for a round number (though I think much more) . Just 15% market share of this patient pool at 8K/dose is $210Million. This does not include Iluvien profit split which could be at least half of that. So, though it's a piece down the road, the market potential of just Medidur and Iluvien could be 8-10 bucks a share or more. This does not include other partnerships or collaborations related to further Durasert platform licenses going forward. Let's not even bring up Tethadur.
So, you're right, where is big pharma? Well, you and I both know, they're engaged already. Let's just look at Pfizer, they just recently filed a form 13D.....peculiar perhaps, as the last 10Q of pSivida addresses potential deviations from their stated agreement with PFE. It sounds to me like they're working as close together as ever. Go read the PFE form 13D and pSivida's last 10Q, maybe something is up. Either way, it's going to be exciting to see how it plays out. Forget the current SP, that could change dramatically overnight. Big Pharma does the math better than any of us.
We have a ways to go. But the Durasert license to ALIM did not include posterior Uveitis. There is a reason for that. pSivida has a pretty good grasp on this indication. After all, Retisert had dealt with the condition well, but it had a fairly serious side effect with elevated IOP. Now, Medidur for the same indication has solved some of those IOP issues. Today's interim data reflects that. Just a 10% market share of the posterior Uveitis market would be very large indeed. Remember, it's not only the FA drug here, it's the platform that delivers tiny micro grams on a daily basis to the site. So, expanding this to dry eye.....it's as much the delivery vehicle of Durasert that gives greater efficacy to a potential myriad of drugs, with daily micro gram delivery over years. Off patent, repurposed drugs used more effectively for various eye indications, all based on better delivery over time. What a concept.
Just to show what a epic narcissistic sociopath this guy is.....In his own words....
I have enough shares to be in the top 4 major investors of the Co. So Sum The Forces Up. You probably bought a few thousand shares in the 50c -$1 and think you know it all. And no, I don't think it is about me, it is about the shareholders of this Co and how their money is utilized or wasted and the power of the CEO's office is abusing the cash in hand. There is absolutely no justification of giving these guys any stock based comp. because they tend to hold nothing. They are as bad as Lynn Parshall of Isis Pharma from the days back when she was CFO. If the CFO keeps selling everything she gets, what confidence does she show in the Co? Same questions is valid to these insiders who automatically keep selling everything. Stock based Comp. is not meant for the insiders to get paid bonuses regardless of how the Co. performs, it is not like they are taking $1 salary until they can show growth in this Co. Even Steve Jobs was an #$%$ who stole from Apple by backdating his stock options.
CEOs have no conscience they think it is Con Science. Cheerleader investors like you is the reason they get away with the loot. Go give them a P-S-D-V-I-S-A-S-H-T-O-N..... Less
Now, I wonder if he's filing with the SEC, knowing that he's got such a large position. Just to refresh everyone's memory.
Here are the top shareholders as of 3/31/15
Allan Gray (formerly Orbis) 2,320,455
North Run Capital 2,144,086
Paul Ashton 440,741
Morgan Stanley 323,788
Perceptive Advisors 315,000
Bridgeway Capital Management 201,900
Remember, he's only here to keep us focused on the right and true path......Thanks, Moron.
Ex, I'd hold for any one of potential catalysts going forward. Since your basis is good, I'd just hold until something really good happens. At some point we've got to be acquired. Does this mean this year or next? Not sure. But with a little more sauce in the pot it could start to boil. It's all up to you bud. I'm just holding for Tethadur clarity and license deals ultimately. But even with clarity I'm a holder until we get snapped up by one of the bigs. Is it a certainty? No it's not. Still, we're way undervalued. GL.
Oh yeah, I'm just so sure. Top 4 of the major shareholders huh? What a *&^%$ dooshbagger. Everything after that is just more*&^%$
Terry, I was looking into this company not long ago. Forgot they had this PIII trial with upcoming data due. Another overpriced clinical stage bio takes a hit. There seems to be a pattern and it's not a good one of late. Then there is pSivida, unknown, unloved and undervalued at four bucks.
Kool, Thanks, this guy wants it yesterday and thinks it's all about him.......and his hundred shares.
JD, I think as it relates to the progress of the big pharma and the evaluation in ophthalmology, they are dictating the release of news. As pSivida is talking about and stating so in their 10K and Q's, we're on the right track. Time will take it's course and data will be data. As Ashton said, "Tethadur continues to show enormous promise". I'm going to take his word for that. By the way, this isn't price in either, like at all. If it's good, it will be very good indeed.
I am still a believer in the fundamentals of the company. Iluvien , in and of itself, will more than pave the way to profitability for the company. No future is priced in at these levels. This being said, your four years was torture, we were all here together for it. No data coming as stated by management regarding Tethadur continues to be frustrating, the Iluvien saga was torture. Thanks for your thoughts and input. I will however hold for more clarity on Tethadur. If pSivida can deliver them in a consistent way, which is what I believe they're working on, then this is a Billion dollar company. It is my belief that Paul Ashton does in fact know exactly what he's doing here. Medidur data will rock, I guarantee it; granted it's a wait. I do however thank you for your thoughts. I wish you well in your other investing ventures.
TBLOW. Ashton brought with him the technology to make Iluvien, a three year release of micro grams that defines the therapeutic affect No one else has done it since. Are you and Nonsense in bed together in your mothers basement? Ashton's still working on Tethadur with the likes of Roche or Regeneron. Please, give it a rest, cut your losses and get fricken' gone from this MB with your whining sentiment. Biatching is all you bring to us. That's it...#$%$, #$%$.....What a fricken doosh.