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Caribou Coffee Company, Inc. (CBOU) Message Board

microcapanalyst 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 4:09 PM Member since: Aug 3, 2001
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  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Nice try again. The per-share book value is about to increase substantially. Buying back $3.50 of book value at $2.80 is incredibly accretive, and this offer is for 15% of the outstanding shares. I would not call that dilution, my friend. And you can be pretty sure the shareholder activism will be picking up on this one. I encourage you to increase your short. Wait and see...you will learn the hard way.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Nice try again with the fear mongering. The tangible book value of this company $3.50. The operating business is worth another $1-$2 to a strategic buyer. This Dutch Auction buyback will be done a $2.80--and they may not even clear the $28M they want to buy, since I doubt they can shake loose 10M shares with offers below $3.50. With $4.50-$5.50 of value here, I would be thinking about covering my short ASAP...if I were foolish enough to be short right now. Best of luck, my friend.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Sorry about your bad bet shorting this and best of luck covering.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Jun 26, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    And why do you think a RMB1.1 billion wealth manager and their affiliates based in China and steeped in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries were willing to buy 1.6 million shares at $2.00? Have you considered the possibility that selling a 1,500 year-old Chinese herbal medicine, which can be cultivated 50x more efficiently than others, might be an exceptionally successful business?

    You might want to open your eyes just a little.

  • Reply to

    #$%$.???

    by topline1 May 9, 2014 9:56 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst May 9, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I think Zhenyu is an honest guy and wants to do the right thing for shareholders. A larger buyback would be enormously accretive for shareholders and will make him a hero among anyone who (still) owns this stock. He mentions 'pursuing methods to maximize shareholder value' a couple times in his prepared remarks, which is a foreign concept to some foreign companies. Zhenyu remains a U.S. citizen with California roots, and I think he wants to create value for his shareholders.

  • Reply to

    #$%$.???

    by topline1 May 9, 2014 9:56 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst May 9, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    Yes, that will be an unhappy realization for sellers. The stock was walked down by someone intending to take out their stop losses...or to set a lower trading level ahead of a tender offer. The board just approved an increase of the stock repurchase plan from 30 million to 50 million ADS shares, and this would be totally unnecessary if they intended only to continue their 10b-18 plan. Since they are limited to buying less than 25% of the average daily volume under 10b-18 and the volume has been around 40,000 shares daily, they can only buy roughly 10,000/day or 2.5 million annually. They bought 2.0 million in 2013 for $4.9 million and still had 7.5 million remaining under the previous plan. The only reason to increase the buyback plan is to actually tender for stock. My guess is the stock is being intentionally walked down ahead of a tender.

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Feb 10, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Good to see Blackrock's amended 13-G: stake was increased from 5.4% to 6.5%.

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