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MCG Capital Corporation Message Board

microcapanalyst 166 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 9:28 AM Member since: Aug 3, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Arbs during the Tender Period?

    by doneatforty Aug 19, 2014 3:47 PM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Sep 16, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Actually, it is more likely that this offer will be undersubscribed. When institutional ownership is low, shareholder response to Dutch Auction tender offers is also extremely low. My guess is that the offer range is increased by $0.10-$0.20/share, to $3.00/share at the high end, or the deal gets done at $2.80/share with fewer than 60,000,000 shares purchased. The low trading volume is indicative of shareholder apathy and a shareholder base that is not focused on this deal. But if you believe your own claim, I wholeheartedly encourage you to maintain your short of this stock. The company has some partnerships with major players in the works, and these deals are likely to come together soon. It will be fun to hear your take on things then....

  • Reply to

    Dutch Auction

    by topline1 Aug 27, 2014 10:12 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 29, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    The Dutch Auction is a very good thing for both long term shareholders who believe in the ultimate value of the company and for uncertain shareholders who would like to exit. The company will very likely need to raise the high end of the offer range above $2.80 if they want to get close to purchasing 10 million shares. Even at $3.00, the buyback is a great deal for long term shareholders, since the result will be the per share alue increases for every share repurchased below fair value. The company holds $3.39 of cash and equivalents, and the tangible book value alone is north of that. Since the business can operate without the need of all these tangible assets, it should be valued in addition to the book value, making this company easily worth $5-6/share. So, the Dutch Auction gives a seller a better price than the open market and it creates value for shareholders who have patiently waited for this rational use of excess cash.

  • Reply to

    ARBS??!!---Newbies!!!--There are no "ARBS"!!!!!

    by bytemeetwyce Aug 20, 2014 11:22 PM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 21, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    As if that matters?? The deal will close in 3 1/2 weeks and, at $2.38, that's a minimum 2.9% return (after the egregious .05 ADS fee from JPM) and more likely a 15.5% return, when this deal gets done at $2.80. And if you convert the ADS shares to ordinary shares, the return improves to 5.0%-17.6%--in all of 27 days. I hope those mystical arbs steer clear and the shorts like you are fleeced. Good luck covering, my friend.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Nice try again. The per-share book value is about to increase substantially. Buying back $3.50 of book value at $2.80 is incredibly accretive, and this offer is for 15% of the outstanding shares. I would not call that dilution, my friend. And you can be pretty sure the shareholder activism will be picking up on this one. I encourage you to increase your short. Wait and will learn the hard way.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Nice try again with the fear mongering. The tangible book value of this company $3.50. The operating business is worth another $1-$2 to a strategic buyer. This Dutch Auction buyback will be done a $2.80--and they may not even clear the $28M they want to buy, since I doubt they can shake loose 10M shares with offers below $3.50. With $4.50-$5.50 of value here, I would be thinking about covering my short ASAP...if I were foolish enough to be short right now. Best of luck, my friend.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Aug 15, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Sorry about your bad bet shorting this and best of luck covering.

  • microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Jun 26, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    And why do you think a RMB1.1 billion wealth manager and their affiliates based in China and steeped in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries were willing to buy 1.6 million shares at $2.00? Have you considered the possibility that selling a 1,500 year-old Chinese herbal medicine, which can be cultivated 50x more efficiently than others, might be an exceptionally successful business?

    You might want to open your eyes just a little.

  • Reply to


    by topline1 May 9, 2014 9:56 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst May 9, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I think Zhenyu is an honest guy and wants to do the right thing for shareholders. A larger buyback would be enormously accretive for shareholders and will make him a hero among anyone who (still) owns this stock. He mentions 'pursuing methods to maximize shareholder value' a couple times in his prepared remarks, which is a foreign concept to some foreign companies. Zhenyu remains a U.S. citizen with California roots, and I think he wants to create value for his shareholders.

  • Reply to


    by topline1 May 9, 2014 9:56 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst May 9, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    Yes, that will be an unhappy realization for sellers. The stock was walked down by someone intending to take out their stop losses...or to set a lower trading level ahead of a tender offer. The board just approved an increase of the stock repurchase plan from 30 million to 50 million ADS shares, and this would be totally unnecessary if they intended only to continue their 10b-18 plan. Since they are limited to buying less than 25% of the average daily volume under 10b-18 and the volume has been around 40,000 shares daily, they can only buy roughly 10,000/day or 2.5 million annually. They bought 2.0 million in 2013 for $4.9 million and still had 7.5 million remaining under the previous plan. The only reason to increase the buyback plan is to actually tender for stock. My guess is the stock is being intentionally walked down ahead of a tender.

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Feb 10, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    Good to see Blackrock's amended 13-G: stake was increased from 5.4% to 6.5%.

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Aug 8, 2013 1:46 PM Flag

    CEO discussed average revenue per employee goal of $200,000 and explained that he had met his goals for this ratio thus far. With 600+ employees, this equates to $120 million in revenue. The TTM revenue is about $60 million, so this means sales should double. With mid-teen gross margins (let's assume 34%, as projected for Q3 2013), that's $40.8 million gross profit. With another $12-13 million from interest income, that equals $53 million to cover $35 million of annual R&D and SG&A. Annual profits will be around $18 million, or around $0.26/share. I am betting revenue doubles by next year and this stock trades over $8/share, but time will tell.

    Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $5M buyback

    by dbtunr Feb 11, 2013 11:55 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Feb 11, 2013 6:49 PM Flag

    They bought 15.6M shares from Afinsa, including their 20% stake in Spectrum PMI (A-Mark), for $51.2M, or $3.28/share, which closed in September 2012. Existing shareholders were givin a right to buy 1.5 additional shares at $1.90/share for each share they already owned, and $22.8M was raised from shareholders. It is too bad you did not participate in this offering because you would be able to sell your shares for more than that now. It seems you have a major axe to grind here, so why not sell your shares and move on...or sell short, if you are bold enough. Anyway, a $5M share repurchase makes a lot of sense at anything below $3/share. Maybe we can even pick up Afinsa's remaining shares at something closer to $2 now. I am not sure why this is so bothersome to you. And if the compamy wants to issue more rights to existing shareholders at $1.90/share, I will again exercise those rights. Sorry you apparently did not, sir.

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Jan 16, 2013 3:13 PM Flag

    Read the 14D-9 a little more closely, my friend:

    Parent and Purchaser will provide dissenters’ rights modifications as follows: (a) the time period by which dissenting shareholders of the Company may demand payment in accordance with MBCA Section 302A.473, Subd. 4(b) shall be extended from within 30 days after notice is given by the Company pursuant to MBCA Section 302A.473, Subd. 4(a) to within 60 days of said notice and (b) the defendants in the actions will waive all rights to seek attorneys’ fees in connection with a dissenters’ rights proceeding pursuant to MBCA Section 302A.473, Subd. 8, from any shareholders of the Company who properly demand dissenters’ rights under Minnesota law

  • Reply to


    by microcapanalyst Jan 2, 2013 1:24 PM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Jan 11, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    We will not be selling a single share we own into this tender, nor will Gabelli I suspect. And the smart money is saying it goes for more than $16. Time will tell.

  • Reply to


    by microcapanalyst Jan 2, 2013 1:24 PM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Jan 2, 2013 4:14 PM Flag

    Not pumping anything, my friend. Just ensuring that shareholders get a fair price. Glad you sold, though, since those of us buying and/or holding considerable shares will not be tendering at $16. So JAB will not even get your piddly 200 shares. This deal will not get done below $20 and will likely be closer to $30 or above. And, yes, I know German people quite well: when they want something, they find a way to get it. The only way here will be a much higher price.

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Jan 2, 2013 1:24 PM Flag

    Caribou is worth a lot more and Benckiser knows it. They will ultimately offer about $25/share, which is still a major discount to what they just paid for Pete's Coffee & Tea. If another bidder jumps into this, the price my be in the $30s. If not, hold on until Benckiser makes that $25/share tender offer. They want CBOU badly.

  • Reply to

    Mario Gabelli...

    by microcapanalyst Dec 19, 2012 9:19 AM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Dec 19, 2012 3:10 PM Flag

    $17 million at prices greater than $16 says it goes for a lot more. You might want to check recent SEC filings and note GAMCO's 13D...and cover you short position soon....

  • microcapanalyst by microcapanalyst Dec 19, 2012 9:19 AM Flag

    knows CBOU is worth a lot more than $16/share. This offer is either increased significantly, an unsolicited offer comes from SBUX or DNKN, or this company is put up for sale via a fair, open auction process. Any shareholder selling toady at $16--to lock in gains or for whatever reason--will regret it. Mark my words.

  • Vote NO to Benckiser. Shareholders deserve a fair price for this company, not some inside deal that enriches management at our expense. Caribou is only beginning its new store expansion and new product roll-outs. Caribou's AUV is only around $600,000/store versus Starbucks at $1,000,000/store, and the growth is only beginning for Caribou. If we are selling the business,then let's do it the right way!

  • Reply to

    Stop playing for the Ambulance chasers

    by cnoinvestor Dec 17, 2012 2:29 PM
    microcapanalyst microcapanalyst Dec 17, 2012 3:08 PM Flag

    No, this is not about ambulance chasers. If Benckiser does not increase their offer, then CBOU shareholders deserve an auction of the company. Starbucks will be at the table with a stronger bid--mark my words. If SBUX can generate $1 million AUV in their own stores (versus just $600k at CBOU), then they can do it with CBOU's. And SBUX trades at 3x sales, while this deal fo CBOU is struck at just 0.9x sales. The stock will trade higher on this fundamental fact alone.

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